Can moisturizer be harmful in the long-term?

I suffer from fairly dry skin, although nothing so severe that it amounts to a disorder or that requires prescription treatment.  My friend contends that the repeated use of moisturizing lotion, such as Lubriderm, may over the years in fact "weaken" skin in some way -- the idea being that whatever natural mechanisms your skin uses to maintain moisture balance decrease after repeated use of moisturizing lotion -- so that when I stop using it, my skin is more dry than had I not used it at all.  He contends that there have been no real long term studies on the effects of moisturizers in this regard.  I tell him that this basically amounts to a conspiracy theory that there is some kind of moisturizer company cabal....can anyone with some expert knowledge on this help me out?  I have to admit that his argument could be convincing.  Can repeated use of moisturizer cause my skin to be more dry than ever if I stop using it?