what are the chances?

So I am considering pregnancy again and want to get an idea of what my chances are for conceiving twins naturally...here are the facts

I am 40
my maternal grandfather had fraternal twin sisters (girls)
My dad had fraternal twin cousins (girls)
I already have a daughter who will be 20 in a few months (so not my first pregnancy)
My parents are Portuguese
I am 5'9"
I had the 3rd day of my period blood test done and the results said I had a good reserve and all was normal
By the time we start trying I will be closer to 41

so what are your thoughts?

[AnnieBrooke]

Identical twins are by random chance, fraternals can run in the family.  But your family history might not help much since it's so attenuated.  First, because fraternal twins happen by mom releasing two eggs, what happened in your dad's side of the family doesn't matter.  The tendency to pop more than one egg out during ovulation might have come down in some way through your mother's dad, but that would be a more persuasive line of explanation if your mom had had fraternal twins (or possibly if you were the grandchild of one of your maternal grandfather's sisters).  Height doesn't matter.  If you were of African heritage, it would increase your chances, but unless you know that your Portuguese relations include African bloodlines, Portuguese heritage doesn't matter.  It not being your first pregnancy increases your chances somewhat, but since it was a long time ago, maybe not so much.  The biggest factor that ups your chances of twins is that you are 40.  That is a definite and known correlation.  Good luck!

[E_Liz]

thanks so much for the feedback!

Yeah I guess I'm just "hoping" out of laziness LOL. My husband says he only wants one (he said at least for now)...and considering age as well then I was just think that way they have a buddy , you know what I mean? I got to thinking about more than one after a dear friend of mine who is a single child lost her mom... pretty much alone now... never married or anything. So I felt badly.

[AnnieBrooke]

Well, the theory is that they will have a buddy.  LOL  When my sisters were born, I had at least one rival and judge, for life.

[E_Liz]

LOL same with mine, there is just two of us and always a competition...BUT at least it is someone that feels you when it comes to your parents because they too have been there hahahaha