In regards to the chances, it only takes once to conceive. One to two days prior to ovulation would certainly be during your fertile time. If you are a patient person, which I personally am not, I would recommend waiting one more week, and if you have not started your period yet, take a home pregnancy test. I, however, am incredibly impatient. I always started taking tests around 10 days past ovulation. When I actually conceived, I was fortunate enough to test positive (very faint) at 11dpo and 12dpo, but I know that a lot of women have to wait until a week or two after their period is due to get their BFP. I wish you the best. Keep us updated!
in my opinion never can you go by your cervix. it changes so frequently. sorry to say. you just might have to wait. go by temps if you really want to know.