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I don't use the ferning method, but I doubt the 1st positive was accurate unless you have very, very short cycles. It is not impossible to o that early. But improbable. Is your cycle regular and fairly consistant in length? If 28 days normally, I would believe a pattern somewhere between 10-16 days from 1st day of af. If it does't happen 3 u this month, maybe buy a cheap basal thermometer to back up the info with the microscope. I always feel better when I have 2 pieces of info that match. A little more confident in the results anyway. Good luck!