HIV - Prevention Expert Forum
My risk
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This forum is limited to prevention of HIV and to safe sex in general. All questions will be answered by H. Hunter Handsfield, M.D. or Edward W Hook, MD.

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My risk

Hi docs, thanks for your good job.  This is my situation

After a lot of time of almost no drinking and no parting, the other day I went to a party and I completely overdid myself. I got very very drunk and ended up in a brothel where I required the company of, first, one woman and then of two others. The place was clean, in the center of a middle-sized Spanish city; the service was worth 100 euros.

The problem is that I remember almost nothing. So here I am asking your help to ***** my risk. I'll give you first some data

I’m from Spain, and here in the most serious studies the 95 of CSW report having used condoms consistently in anal and vaginal sex consistently with his clients in 6 months previous to the study. In the region I'm living, million and a half people, the number of infected males per year via heterosexual sex are about 40 per year, half of them inmigrants. I don't know if that is high or not.

The HIV prevalence among CSW varies in Spain, depending on the study, between  0,3 to 2%. As I try to reach a lower limit to my risk, let’s say it is 2%. But, to be more realistic, let’s add some risk because, if she has unprotected vaginal sex with me,  the CSW has showed she is not consistent with condom use: lets say 10% of CSW that not use consistently condoms are infected.

And, finally, the much known 1/2000.

All toghether, my risk would approximately be 3*(5/100)*(1/10)*(1/2000) = 8 in a million or about 1 in 100.000.

Am I making a significant mistake in my calculations?

Is my risk high? Should I be very worried?

When I reach the 28 day mark I’ll take a DUO test and I’ll let you know the results.

Thanks for your time.




Thanks for your post.  I'll be pleased to comment.  You have done your homework and math well- I agree with your calculations.  I would only point out that your calculations are conservative and I suspect your risk for infection is even lower than you mention.  The reason I say this is that your partner(s) were commercial sex workers who were in a brothel.  Commercial sex workers, particularly those working in brothels are typically cautious about their sexual activities and are checked regularly for STIs including HIV because it would be bad for business (both theirs and the brothel owner's).  I anticipate that your 28 day test will be negative.  I also hope that as well as being checked for HIV you will get checked for other, far more common STIs such as chlamydia and gonorrhea.

I hope these comments are helpful. Please take care. EWH
Hi Again Doc, In three days I'm getting tested. So
Edward W Hook, So Just one last thing. 21 days after the possible exposure I was for about two days with a bit of malayse and headaches, not constant just a couple of times every day. No fever. After that, I got a stiff neck. Could these symptomps be ARS?
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H. Hunter Handsfield, M.D.Blank
University of Washington
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