just as a general wondering. i've been getting alot of reassurance that i do not need to be tested after a single sexual episode...especially one as low risk as i described. i'm assuming this is because of the general understanding of how overwhelming the odds are in favor of either the partner not having HIV, or even if they did have HIV, the odds that one would get infected after a single episode. just as a general question, how do experts explain those who do get infected on the first try? do they do something more aggressive or risky, such as anal? does their sex last longer which gives the virus more time to transmit? i've been reading alot of personal accounts online of people who share how they got infected. every once in a while i'll come across one where they describe how they only had 1 episode of unprotected sex in a low risk encounter and they end up getting infected. is there any logical explanation for why this happens?
Okay..that's what I thought, thanks for confirming.
but you're right. doing 'whatever sex act' 2000 times cannot get you HIV even if the risk is 1/2000. You don't add up the risk 2000 times because each time the risk is the same, i.e., 1/2000 probably because the partner is different.
HOWEVER, if you have the same partner, and that partner (let's say her name is Margaret) is a KNOWN and confirmed HIV positive person, and unprotected sex is done, you could probably ADD up the sex with that person (1+1+1+1+....+1+1=2000) and have a 100% chance of acquiring it because it is an OR risk--->i.e., "the probability that you got HIV by having sex with Margaret in the year 2006 when you had sex with her 2000 times is cumulative". did you get HIV from her in January of 2006 'OR' March of 2006. so you would add up the risk from Jan and the risk from March to get a cumulative number for your risk.
So that's how it is done.
BUT....the risk is probably NOT linear for HIV transmission, cuz HIV transmission probability is so fu**ed up! i.e., even if you had sex with Margaret, our known and confirmed HIV positive fictional person, 2000 times in the year 2006, and even though you add up all the chances to get 2000, you risk is still not 100%, although your risk is definitely amplified.
But if you wanted to do a multiplication, then your really saying, "what is the risk I got the virus in one month AND I got the virus in another month?" This is where probability invokes the AND. I.e., Did the virus transfer into your probability in January of 2006 AND March of 2006 when you had sex with Margaret? you would multiply both of them, and the risk will be the same-->(1/2000).
Goofy I know. But that is just the basics. Do you know what permutations and combinations are? those are mathematical probabilities based on different combinations and so the risk is not entirely linear. This is Doc's territory, as he is a probability and statistics expert with regard to his data.
But the risk for HIV transmission is SO low, that it's not worth delving into. I think we'd be splittin hairs here as Doc would say.
Hope you got it.
Anyways, thanks for answerin my question and hopefully I answered yours.
-WorriedUS
had a typo..I meant to say.. "Did the virus transfer into your bloodstream..."
regards,
-WorriedUS
You're right, that risk is per event, not per encounter. However (and someone please correct me if I'm wrong, 'cause my math skills suck and I'm basing this only on what I learned in a tests and measurements class), it is still a 1 in 2,000 risk *each* time. Following your model would mean that if you did (whatever) 2,000 times, you would have a 100% chance of contracting HIV, but of course that's not true. You could conceivably do (whatever) 10,000 times and still not contract HIV. Yeah, I know, it seems counterintuitive.
That's not quite how it works. Each event carries the same statistical risk, so you had a 1 in 2,000 chance each time.
and I thought I had swollen lymph nodes under my jaw.. My doc said i didnt.
I didn't know that. good statistic. I was just aiming on the conservative side. but hey, even better for nyyanks~
actually the odds of HIV transmission with someone of unknown status is around 1 in 100,000. 1 in 2000 is if she is "confirmed" to be positive.
odds she even had HIV 1/1000
odds he would have contracted it if she did. 1/1000
total odds 1/1000,000
I agree mf..but isn't that stastic PER contact rather than PER sexual encounter?
in other words..if the risk for transmission for fellatio
with a KNOWN HIV positive person is 1/10,000, isn't
it on a PER contact basis? I mean, throughout the night,
the risk could end up being on a cumulative basis, 6/10000
for having someone having performed fellatio 6 times in one night
to the person of confirmed HIV status.
Because that's how probability works, you add up the risk to get a cumulative number.
...but if those numbers are just averages, no matter HOW many contacts occur in one
sex act, then I understand. I mean if 1/2000 for penile-vaginal
sex is an average for one night between a man and a woman, no matter
how many times they have sex, then I understand that the
risk is per enounter. let me know. and do let me know HOW you know.
thanks.
-WorriedUS
Thank you to all who have commented, especially to you doctor. I now see things in a realistic light and my mind has essentially been put to ease. I will probably mention this to my physician during my next physical just for his personal opinion because I've trusted him my whole life. I literally felt better just reading the postings. I guess you all are right, the mind is a scary and powerful machine. God bless.
nyyanks,
If you constantly check your lymph nodes, you will irritate them, and they will DEFINITELY get swollen. Read up on that and you will see that. And the STD clinic doctor I was at last week also old me the same thing. And the Doc will tell you that personal assessment of lymph nodes being swollen is almost never accurate. I thought mine were and the STD doc said they were not. (she checked neck AND groin nodes).
BTW, she was your friend. Not a prostitue. You're both hetero..non drug users..she's had only 2 partners, and hopefully not guys who were bi.
So you're risk is NILL.
btw, even if she DID have HIV, she would tell you. And if she did have it and knew, her risk would be mitigated by her lower viral levels due to any medication she was on.
And if she did not know she was positive, your risk for acquiring it from a woman is a 1/2000 risk, assuming no condom. Even if you had sex like 7 times that night that would mean = 7/2000 = .35% chance of acquring it, i.e, less than one chance in a 100.
Like sparkeler said. relax you had safe sex. if you can't stop worrying, get one test at betwen 6-8 weeks which will be 99% accurate and that should allay your concerns.
-WorriedUS
sparkeler is right, I still remember how paranoid I was even I wore protection :)
"However, What if she's lying?" I doubt it. Who would lie about donating blood? The chance you became infect with a one time vaginal sex exposure IF the girl was infected is 1 in 2000. ( Probably even less, since the sex was very brief. ) How do you know that the glands in your neck were still swollen? Are you sure you just didn't *think* they were? Anxiety can play cruel tricks on our minds. It's probably just the spontaneous way you lost your virginity that is really bothering you. You now understand the risks of unsafe sex. (Outside mutually monogomous relationships.) I'm not saying don't ever have casual sex again, but wear a condom if you do. For most people it saves them from needless worrying. (But there are some very paranoid people out there, even when they do wear protection.) Relax. Your fine:)
Considering the near-zero risk your partner has HIV, the nature of the exposure (pretty brief), the inherently how risk of HIV transmission for any single episode of vaginal sex, and that you have another obvious explanation than HIV for your symptoms, the chance you acquired HIV is essentially zero. From a strictly medical or risk assessment perspective, you do not need to be tested. But for most people in your situation, my reassurance won't be enough. If that applies to you, get tested. You can be certain the result will be negative.
Best wishes--- HHH, MD