Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics

It is good to know a healthy debate transpired on this subject by Dumbo, Teak, et al, while I was sleeping, literally.

I thought Dr. Bob had chosen his words very carefully when answering a question on HIV risk and statistics, for everyone to understand, but sadly it is evident that this subject is still causing confusion and angst.

I have a great deal of respect for Dr. Bob, who has a considerable amount of experience and expertise, with his whole life devoted to the subject. I for one would not even attempt to challenge his views or have any reason to do so.

The reason why we find the often quoted HIV transmission risk alien or confusing is because these risks are generalized to "route of exposure", i.e. anal, vaginal, oral, etc, and applicable to all population samples. In any given situation, there are many other factors which can have a bearing transmission, such as, viral load, viral strain, host immune system and genetic disposition to HIV and other factors such as duration of exposure, type of exposure etc. Damn, if we think about it hard enough even the colour of bed-sheets, position of the moon/sun, and high/low tide could be a variable : ). Each specific situation is different and would have its own level of risk associated with it. Realistically, we can

[freddy999]

What is accurate however is the prevelance of HIV amongst sub-sets of population.

You can use this as a basis for determining level of risk whether it be at an individual level or as a population.

This is exactly why flying is safe....except for those that crash and die.

This doesn't mean you should not practice "safe" sex in these populations, but the risk is still much lower, than anal sex, MSM, in New York.

In a typical white, heterosexual population the incidence of HIV is very low, particularly outside of major cities, and particularly if it is vaginal or oral sex.

Anyone who thinks otherwise simply has not studied the statistics.

When you multiply this by the chance of transmission, which, at it its worst (anal receptive), is rarely greater than 1 in 50 (2%)...

the chances you have HIV from one exposure is absolutely minimal.

When this is compounded by a -ve test at 6-8 weeks, the risk of still being infected is hundreds of millions to 1.  i.e. non-existent

Not saying it can't happen, but it's rarer than hen's teeth

[Teak]

Tell that to the people in Africa. Tell that to the people in India and Mexico. Tell that to the African-American population here in the US. I don

[freddy999]

Oh dear me. How rude !

As I said;

"In a typical white, heterosexual population the incidence of HIV is very low, particularly outside of major cities, and particularly if it is vaginal or oral sex.

Anyone who thinks otherwise simply has not studied the statistics."

Does that sound like Africa, India or Mexico to you ?


As you said;

"All anyone here has to do is search your name and look at your threads and questions. You sir should never give advice until you get yourself up to par on the transmission of HIV. "

A personal attack on me, doesn't invalidate the information I gave. If anything it is the converse of what I have previously feared. My behaviour is driven by irrational anxiety, not an ignorance of the facts.

From what I have read, you have no greater understanding of HIV transmission, or testing than I do.

[Teak]

Oh please Freddy. Give us a break here. I've forgot more about HIV than you know. You can work off statistics all you like they mean diddley squat. It's either you have a risk and have gotten infected or you haven't. Statistics are like symptoms they have no meaning to someone that has had a risk or has been infected.

[o_g]

You said -
"A personal attack on me, doesn't invalidate the information I gave. If anything it is the converse of what I have previously feared. My behaviour is driven by irrational anxiety, not an ignorance of the facts.

From what I have read, you have no greater understanding of HIV transmission, or testing than I do."

A - H.O.L.E - I have seen your testing history a million times & do you think anyone in right frame of mind should be following your advice. Aren't you ashamed of even giving advice after what  like a million tests. You are a freak.

I urge everyone to report this guy. This man is CRAZY!!!. Worried people here do not need you, nor you nonsense F....'d up knowledge.. Get Lost!!!

[freddy999]

No, I am not in the slightest bit ashamed. The fear I have felt, and the knowledge I have acquired puts me in an excellent position to help others facing a similar situation.

You're response to me however, ought to make you feel ashamed.

Putting my behaviour to one side....(if you can)

It is important to understand that a risk is not a binary thing. You don't either have a risk or don't have a risk. Risks are quantifiable. You are at risk right now from all sorts of things. Chances are that you are not frightened because you can put that risk into some kind of context.

The purpose behind my posts, is actually to reassure those people who believe that their risk is great when, in fact, as it was with mine, it is often negligble.

I am not advocating unsafe sex, not testing or anything else, I am merely saying that if you put some context around your fears, it can bring some degree of reassurance.

It is ham-fisted statements like "the chances are 50/50" that Teak advocates that are ill-advised and completely wrong. Having a 2 outcome possibility does not mean that the chances are 50/50.

As for not knowing about HIV or testing etc. I'm willing to be tested on that.

It's sounds to me like you are just another ignorant, blunt brained yank, who wants simple answers.

That insult was intended as mild revenge :-)

[mike_no]

I must say....That *WINDOW CALCULATOR* is hilarious !

It should be posted to FDA /CDC, maybe they'll even go ahead and approve it and put it up on www.fda.gov / www.cdc.gov....

looks like some kinda a ready reckoner designed for HIV window !

[o_g]

Well, "LOGIC" seems to be the most "FU'd " up word to be used with a person like you but I will try to reason out.
Dude, can you even take yourself seriously anymore. Forget, other people taking you seriously.

"Not knowing status is 1 thing , testing and knowing is another". You are so screwed in the head that you are repeatedly coming and posting ur million test results over here again and again. Do you think you are helping other. What kind of help is that to a person who tests at 4 weeks and want to see some hope at the end of the tunnel. You are imposing ur stupid irrationality over people who are already in deep anxious state. You are nothing more than a mean ******* who wants to break world record for testing. You don't have any consideration for other forum users and you are still here for yourself and nothing you say is intended to help others.

I am happy that you are out of your troubles(congrats for that!!) but please stop troubling others with you absolutely ":F'ed up" behavior. To be honest, with your track record, anyone with a sane head on his shoulders should not even care looking at your posts as they hold nothing valuable. Man, do you see what you have become. You are coming up with your(home brewed) own absolutely screwed up Window Period BS. In 1 of my other posts I wrote this forum has become a psycho dweller where 1 psycho creates 1000 others. I am yet to figure out whether you are the creator or createe.. Man...stop posting n get on with watever ie..ur life.. get it back on track. Get urself rid of this "freak show" u FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKKKKKKKK!!!!

Note: "All insults really intended". And, I think in a sick way "you like being called a freak"

[19_weeks_to_go]

Alex73, I agree with what you said exactly.  I think some of us (like myself - not sure if you read my post about being scared of results) just came here to find piece of mind while waiting for results.  I am just having routine testing done for prenatal purposes and my motherly worrisome instinct has kicked in.  I came seeking just piece of mind through statistics that turned out to be extremely low risk for a heterosexual woman at 32, with a past of 5 unprotected long-term monogomous relationships.  My likelihood is 1 to probably 4 million... but anything is possible.  Like you said 1 and 1000 chance of being shot by a loaded gun, etc, is still a risk.  Completely agreed.  I don't use the statistics as a way to go out on sex ventures thinking I can only get HIV 1 in 4 million... and I truly hope people don't think this way.  

[freddy999]

o_g,

Why are you here ?

for fearful, feaky behaviour, see your own post;

http://www.medhelp.org/forums/HIVSupport/messages/192.html

Wow ! two DNA-PCR's....you beat me !

Still having the neuropathy ? I would have thought with all your tests and the logic you apply to every situation, you would have moved on by now.

A little kindness wouldn't go amiss.

If you believe my behaviour is so freaky..why would it bother you so much ?

Maybe it tugs at your own fears ?  After the way you've spoken to me, I hope so.

[mike_no]

I COMPLETELY AGREE TO THIS !

[BuggaBear]

SO BASICALLY USE CONDOMS

[Blackmane]

Sound good!I agree they should change those numbers.

[scareshitless]

thank you very much. Well said!!!

[xworriedx]

MOVE ON WITH YOUR LIVES PEOPLE ....HOLY ****!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[txtony]

entering a heated conversation. bottom line, anal,vaginal sex whether your catching or pitching is risky, level matters to a point, testing criteria is the same.
guys, were here to help one another regardless of differences in mental status ; )  statistics are numbers to measure level of risk.
but like i said, testing criteria should be followed. guys, teak has said this many times, and it makes perfect sense: hiv should not be a guessing game.
imagine those heterosexual individuals that have come out positive, following the 1/2000 stats. many people have hiv and dont know it. ive take informal surveys off my friends and coworkers and have asked them if they have tested. their answer, "nah, im not gay, or do iv drugs".
sex education especially transmission of hiv is and should be required in high school, colleges, in employment orientation, with the importance of condoms.
risks and no risks differentation.(is that even a word, oh well). you know what i mean.
if you have been exposed, take a test between 6-8 wks, highly unlikely to change in 13 wks conclusive by cdc. thats my 2 cents, only have a buck anyone have change??

[mike_no]

SO TRUE !
but if only people could understand it :(

Lets end this here guys !

[o_g]

Well I think being called a "Thick Yank" is better than being a "Brit pissing in his pants". Anyways *******, I am here not trying to advice people anymore as I have realized that I have plenty personal issues to deal with 1st. This behavior is unlike yours where without knowing anything, you verbal diarrhea never ends which according to you is "intended to help others". You are a peice of **** and best ignored. You are so ****** up that you are advising "Shal" who according to even you did not have a risk to get a 6 week test. You need to be tied up with chains and put in the strictest/stringest psycho ward. Letting people like yourself out in open is harmful for society in general.. Enough of me to you. I see no point in further communication with shitholes like you.

[freddy999]

Shal had already taken a six week test. I was informing him that this was more than sufficient.

I think this thread highlights, that if anyone has mental problems, and is beheaving freakishly, then it is yourself.

I will leave it at that.

[mike_no]

I think you were not required here, why do you have to poke your dirty nose in their business, if this makes you sick, turn off your "Computah" and turn on your TV - watch Hollyoaks

[mike_no]

This is getting ridiculous people.....STOP IT !

[o_g]

Check out the history of this forum and do some research of you own about Freddy999 before coming out and blabbering. I suggest you get your facts right about who is talking sense and non-sense on these forums. And, again, as suggested by mike_no, without having complete knowledge of why I am writing this up, its better you not butt in.

[mike_no]

This is Fred's testing history.

Test 1 - 4 Weeks - Combi Core HIV 1+2 Ag+Ab
Test 2 - 7 Weeks - Combi Core HIV 1+2 Ag+Ab
Test 3 - 9 Weeks - Combi Core HIV 1+2 Ag+Ab
Test 4 - 10 Weeks - Combi Core HIV 1+2 Ag+Ab
Test 5 - 11 Weeks - Abbott Determine HIV 1+2 Rapid Test
Test 6 - 13 Weeks - Combi Core HIV 1+2 Ag+Ab
Test 7 - 15 Weeks - Abbott Determine HIV 1+2 Rapid Test
Test 8 - 15 Weeks - HIV PCR-DNA types A->K +O LTR Gene
Test 9 - 15 Weeks - HIV PCR-DNA types A->K +O GAG Gene
Test 10 - 15 Weeks - HIV PCR-DNA types A->K +O POL Gene
Test 11 - 18 Weeks - Abbott Determine HIV 1+2 Rapid Test
Test 12 - 20 Weeks - Combi Core HIV 1+2 Ag+Ab
Test 13 - 24 Weeks - Abbott Determine HIV 1+2 Rapid Test
Test 14 - 25 Weeks - Unknown Assay
Test 15 - 27 Weeks - Combi Core HIV 1+2 Ag+Ab
Test 16 - 29 Weeks - Vidas HIV 1+2
Test 17 - 29 Weeks - Bio-Merieux HIV 1+2
Test 18 - 29 Weeks - P24 Stand Alone
+ Syphilis, Hep B, Hep C, Gon., Chlamidia
Test 19 - 32 Weeks - Abbott Determine HIV 1+2 Rapid Test
Test 20 - 37 Weeks - Abbott Determine HIV 1+2 Rapid Test
Test 21 - 39 Weeks - Abbott Determine HIV 1+2 Rapid Test
Test 22 - 44 Weeks - Abbott Determine HIV 1+2 Rapid Test
Test 23 - 47 Weeks - Vidas HIV 1+2
Test 24 - 47 Weeks - Bio-Merieux HIV 1+2
Test 25 - 47 Weeks - P24 stand alone
+ Syphilis, Hep B, Hep C, Gon., Chlamidia
Test 26 - 51 Weeks - Abbott Determine HIV 1+2 Rapid Test

Fred, I have no personal grudges against you but like o_g said you're not the right person one should listen to when it comes to testing and window period, man, you impose YOUR own fears on to the others

[o_g]

Freddy - you wrote "I think this thread highlights, that if anyone has mental problems, and is beheaving freakishly, then it is yourself."

Well, tell me what does this thread highlight " http://www.medhelp.org/forums/HIVSupport/messages/2117.html";

Wasn't it supposed to be your ta-tah mail for the million'th time

Trinigirl: check it out the link and decide for yourself before acting like a trigger happy cowgirl. For, I won't be surprised, that you turn out to be Freddy999...given his state of mind(i mean the way you are coming in  support of a psycho)

[mike_no]

And Fred's :determine your own window period :


For all those that don't understand the variance in Window Period advice;

The 4 factors to calculate your level of HIV risk;

1) The likelihood of a sexual partner having HIV
Heteroexual encounters this would range from
1/100 to 5/100
Homosexual encounters this would range from
1/100 to 15/100
Known HIV+ partners the variable is
1/1

2) The likelihood that a single unprotected act results in
infection
Vaginal (Male)
1/2000
Vaginal (Female)
1/1000
Anal (receptive M/F)
1/200
Anal (Top M/F)
1/1500
Male Oral Sex (Giving)
1/10000
Everything Else
0

3) The chance an HIV antibody test fails to pick up an
infection at a given post-exposure time point
3 Week -ve
1/2
6 Week -ve
1/20
12 Week -ve
1/200
24 Week -ve
1/1000

Calculate your risk; take each of these factors and multiply them together;

A male having unprotected, vaginal sex, once, with a female from a low risk group with a 6 week -ve test has the following risk profile;

HIV+ partner Vaginal Sex 6 Week -ve
1/100 * 1/2000 * 1/20 = 1/4,000,000

i.e. a one in 4 million chance of still being infected,whereas;

A male having unprotected, receptive anal sex, 5 times with a male, who is known to be HIV +ve, and a 6 week -ve test, has the following risk profile;

HIV+ partner Anal Sex 6 Week -ve
1/1 * 5/200 * 1/20 = 1/800

i.e. a one in 800 chance of still being infected (quite high)
a further 12 week test would change this to being 1 in 8,000
and a six month test to 1 in 40,000.

There is a big difference in having a 1 in 4 million risk profile compared to a 1 in 800 risk profile. This is why there are "REAL" risks as opposed to "real" risks and, also why, doctors may advise some people to test out to 3 or 6 months.

You must decide for yourself where the certainty cut off is for you and what your Window period will be.

For me it was 1 in 200 Billion....ie. pretty unlikely.

Fred.


Some body please tell me what sense this one makes ????
Why would one take Fred's advise ?

I think I was trying to call for peace here but I've become one of the participant, I'm feeling really really screwed up in the head now....Bye guys !

[freddy999]

I agree this is a funny thread.

It lets out a lot of pent up feelings.  :-)

[Blackmane]

You can shut the **** up too!

[o_g]

up urs too

[o_g]

i feel bad for this thread..my honest intentions were to help make things clear but turned otherwise. I dont want to make it a personal batt;le ground and thus, i respectfully witdraw... ...take care everyone and lets have logic prevail over stupid mass hysteria...

[Blackmane]

You guys need to remember this is a support forum!(og and trinigirl)We got to keep this thing informative!

[freddy999]

Right...

If you are gonna ***** about me fine.

If you don't understand about quantifying risk ..fine

If you can't understand that I was under tremendous guilt...fine

If you don't want my presence...fine

If you don't accept that despite my frailties, I can support others..fine

But, I hope that you get shown more tolerance and kindness than you have shown me. I hope you do not feel the levels of guilt and anxiety that I have felt.

and...I hope that you soon will be free of your fears.

Fred

[freddy999]

Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee Blee

[o_g]

Again... congrats for ur awesome results...I hope you can find peace with them.
Freddy, kindness and support are terms which sound very good to use and even better when that comfort is provided to people who really need it. You, in no way need any of those as far as HIV goes. You need to stand up on your own and leave this behind you. C'mon man...open your eyes...There are more needy people than you...Again..congrats and please leave..

[Blackmane]

Lets getover our personal grudges,act like adults and keep this a Hiv Support Fourm!Please think about the people who need our help!

[o_g]

I rather not use profanity with a girl.. Talk sense...

[Blackmane]

I give up.Trinigirl may God bless you!

[mike_no]

Can we let this go ?

Trinigirl - so you were wathing Hollyoaks..huh ?

Fred - Man, I'm sorry if I offended you

o_g - Baba gand maro said - "sab sale chutiye hai" that means Let it go

[mike_no]

Ease up !

It's all over, situation under control..lol !

it's 19:27 go watch Eastender ! :D

[anonymous_user]

This is a funny thread.

you know what,
A new user coming here with his fears/worries would be completely lost.
he may even cross check the URL to see whether this is some kind of phishing or not...

Carry on guys, whenever HIV gets into my brains, i will come here for fun.
meanwhile, lets see how we can console some worried soles around

[o_g]

Seriously, may god bless you!!!! ;)

[mike_no]

I second anonymous

I think this is a healthy thread...from the time this thread came in to existence ..I see anxiety driven posts minimizing...lol !

Lets stop it here folks :)

[mike_no]

Don't worry !

You had low risk exposure

anxiety is causing you to do this

Brain damage is your problem not HIV

you need to watch Eastender / Snooker

LOL ...

whats up with you girl...why are you so frustrated, easy, this is some thing which happens here once in every blue moon, let it happen , enjoy !

[Blackmane]

I have nothing to tell you,except shyt the **** up!Ok

[Lifestyles]

There are people that come on here with symptoms that may be HIV related or those who have recently contracted the HIV virus. All the argueing that goes on here should stop bad enough the world doesnt care enough about infected people because there then would be a cure or even a vaccine for the virus, if the so called virus was a typical virus that spreads through coughing,sneezing, and touching then it would have been a problem f or the CDC and scientists that research the disease becasue millions even billions of americans would have died, but since it only affects the gay population and the drug using population then no one cares to work 24/7 in discovering what causes and hopefully treat the virus. I am only 17 years old and i come on here and read every post instead of being outside with friends and family because im so scared about the shyt i put myself in, i didnt ask to sit here and worry about this and those infected didnt ask to be infected. Instead of stressing statistical information we need to have rallies, protests and concerts to let our government know that it is time for the HIV 1 and 2 Virus and AIDS to be a thing of the past. Human beings should be able to live normal lives without the risk of HIV/AIDS, its been 30 to 40 years since the virus was detected and documented and still nothing has been done to cure it. Instead pharmaceutical companies get millions of dollars to create a toxic drug that only prolongs life for about 10-20 years if your lucky. Why should we as american citizens sit back and allow the lives of our friends and family of today perish because of the greed of others. If this virus is not controlled today then in the future it may be this countries #1 cause of death besides HEART DISEASE. I pray that there is a cure in the next 5 or 10 years for diseases such as HIV/AIDS, cancer amd everything else that shorten the lives of everyone. I am so scared to get tested for this virus because i dont wanna be another statistic another young African American male dying to the HIV/AIDS virus or being gunned down in a ghetto neighborhood. If the CDC or any researching agency in America just happen to read this all i ask is that we put an end to this and move on with out lives. If you are HIV+ dont worry a miracle is coming soon very soon and if your not then when the cure and vaccine comes it would prevent those who made careless mistakes in their lives from dreading on what they have done in the past.

RIP: HIV/AIDS 1980's-2007 No longer will you kill those close to us

[mike_no]

Okay, now it's going overboard, I know you're screwy, there's no point in talking to you cuz the more I speak to you ...the more mess you create BUT do you realize where you are ? This is a friggin HIV support forum, people come here all horrified and concerned about some thing which is dreadful, THAT'S CALLED AS HIV, now for the love of god, stop this and go away where you've come from, you don't have any business to stay here and if you wanna stay here, wanna know about things please feel free to but please don't disrupt the forum, I'm really really refraining my self to be rude to you, you've become a pain in the arse, stop it !

[Teak]

Come on here, HIV has been around and investigated for 25 years. Yes they have found a man's blood that died in 1959 to have been infected with HIV. HIV is not a disease only involving gays and persons using drugs. You need to do less posting and more research and reading.

[Lifestyles]

i didnt say it just involve gays and drug users what i said was it mainly affects gays and drug users and its not going to be treated properly and cured because of the group its affecting. Many hate homosexuals and drug users so why would they want to help them, i dont dislike them but the way our country is the government doesnt like them!!!!!