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Quick Poll...
I am now ready to officially coronate myself as the "King of the Worried Wells".
Quick Poll:
What are the odds that three negative tests outside the window period by two different sites (doctor's office (blood) and testing facility (oral)) could all be incorrect?
What are the odds that the irrational side of my brain is kicking the rational side's ass due to guilt, fear, grieving and anxiety?
Thanks for your input....lol
Quick Poll:
What are the odds that three negative tests outside the window period by two different sites (doctor's office (blood) and testing facility (oral)) could all be incorrect?
What are the odds that the irrational side of my brain is kicking the rational side's ass due to guilt, fear, grieving and anxiety?
Thanks for your input....lol
xhost, that was a great answer.
Peekawho, I've also seen the responses (or lack thereof) to statistics on these boards, and somehow didn't grasp the significance until I read your post. To me, 1 in 10,000 is so remote, it's not worth testing AT ALL. It didn't even occur to me that others would find those frightening odds. Of course, I continue to be mystified by the concept of worrying about a 1 in 10,000 chance, when you have a 1 in 3 chance of developing cancer in your lifetime. Jesus, millions of people are diagnosed every year with diabetes, cancer, whatever. I can't quite wrap my mind around worrying about a meteor coming through my roof right after I've won the world's largest lottery, while sitting there eating Twinkies and Big Macs, smoking cigarettes, drinking too much, driving too fast, not wearing seatbelts--using the stove, for god's sake ;-)
As a side note, the articles I've read about dealing with worried wells are very clear on the importance of appropriate verbiage. Instead of saying something like, "Your HIV test was negative," they say "You don't have HIV." No variables--just straight up yes or no.
Peekawho, I've also seen the responses (or lack thereof) to statistics on these boards, and somehow didn't grasp the significance until I read your post. To me, 1 in 10,000 is so remote, it's not worth testing AT ALL. It didn't even occur to me that others would find those frightening odds. Of course, I continue to be mystified by the concept of worrying about a 1 in 10,000 chance, when you have a 1 in 3 chance of developing cancer in your lifetime. Jesus, millions of people are diagnosed every year with diabetes, cancer, whatever. I can't quite wrap my mind around worrying about a meteor coming through my roof right after I've won the world's largest lottery, while sitting there eating Twinkies and Big Macs, smoking cigarettes, drinking too much, driving too fast, not wearing seatbelts--using the stove, for god's sake ;-)
As a side note, the articles I've read about dealing with worried wells are very clear on the importance of appropriate verbiage. Instead of saying something like, "Your HIV test was negative," they say "You don't have HIV." No variables--just straight up yes or no.
What you said:
"Assuming the tests failed functionally, you'd be looking at odds of .0002 * .0002 * .0002 = 1/125 BILLION."
What certain people read:
"Yes, there's a chance all the tests were wrong!"
People always assume that the worst will happen to them, regardless of the odds against it.
"Assuming the tests failed functionally, you'd be looking at odds of .0002 * .0002 * .0002 = 1/125 BILLION."
What certain people read:
"Yes, there's a chance all the tests were wrong!"
People always assume that the worst will happen to them, regardless of the odds against it.
There is no way your results are inaccurate.
There is every possibility that you are beating yourself up over what you did.
Have you sought counselling? It really works. It's amazing how powerful the mind is. I mean, here you are doubting conclusive results. Your anxiety is so strong that you're questioning things you know nothing about. I'm not being critical, I'm the same myself. All you can do is try and seek the root mental cause. And you will find it if you look hard enough.
You're HIV negative. It's as simple as that:)
There is every possibility that you are beating yourself up over what you did.
Have you sought counselling? It really works. It's amazing how powerful the mind is. I mean, here you are doubting conclusive results. Your anxiety is so strong that you're questioning things you know nothing about. I'm not being critical, I'm the same myself. All you can do is try and seek the root mental cause. And you will find it if you look hard enough.
You're HIV negative. It's as simple as that:)
Different strokes for different folks, I guess...
Medically speaking, NOTHING is 0.000...(ad infinitum)%.
Practically speaking, 1 / 125 BILLION is definitively zero, on the order of "What are the chances the sun won't be here when I wake up tomorrow?"
For me, a fellow WW, I like to know the odds because many people on here qualify 'higher' chances, e.g., 1/10,000 (receptive oral with an HIV+ partner) as zero, despite the fact that at least a FEW studies (albeit not the Spanish one) indicate that there are very likely some cases of HIV transmission by oral sex.
Like Dr HHH points out so frequently, each of us needs to decide how 'definitive' we need things to be. For me, a 1/10,000 chance still warrants follow-up testing when there have been DOCUMENTED (or even highly suspected) cases of transmission by that exposure route.
But 1 / 125 BILLION should be zero for everyone. That's MUCH, MUCH smaller than the chance you'd ever win the lotto AND get struck by lightning.
I would hope that most of us, even the most anxiety-ridden, could agree that a 1 / 1 MILLION chance is, for all practical purposes, zero.
Medically speaking, NOTHING is 0.000...(ad infinitum)%.
Practically speaking, 1 / 125 BILLION is definitively zero, on the order of "What are the chances the sun won't be here when I wake up tomorrow?"
For me, a fellow WW, I like to know the odds because many people on here qualify 'higher' chances, e.g., 1/10,000 (receptive oral with an HIV+ partner) as zero, despite the fact that at least a FEW studies (albeit not the Spanish one) indicate that there are very likely some cases of HIV transmission by oral sex.
Like Dr HHH points out so frequently, each of us needs to decide how 'definitive' we need things to be. For me, a 1/10,000 chance still warrants follow-up testing when there have been DOCUMENTED (or even highly suspected) cases of transmission by that exposure route.
But 1 / 125 BILLION should be zero for everyone. That's MUCH, MUCH smaller than the chance you'd ever win the lotto AND get struck by lightning.
I would hope that most of us, even the most anxiety-ridden, could agree that a 1 / 1 MILLION chance is, for all practical purposes, zero.
What are the odds of 3 false-negatives outside the window period?
Let's see...
Assuming the tests failed functionally, you'd be looking at odds of .0002 * .0002 * .0002 = 1/125 BILLION.
The odds that human error (or intentional human deception) across 3 tests from different centers caused 3 false-negatives will be similarly astronomical.
You are HIV-.
You are feeling extremely guilty and will need to process this through continued proper counseling.
You have a much, much, much higher risk of dying from any number of things than you do of having HIV, which probably wouldn't kill you anyway.
Let's see...
Assuming the tests failed functionally, you'd be looking at odds of .0002 * .0002 * .0002 = 1/125 BILLION.
The odds that human error (or intentional human deception) across 3 tests from different centers caused 3 false-negatives will be similarly astronomical.
You are HIV-.
You are feeling extremely guilty and will need to process this through continued proper counseling.
You have a much, much, much higher risk of dying from any number of things than you do of having HIV, which probably wouldn't kill you anyway.
I agree with Peekawho, and I speak from experience.
Putting a number on it, even a daft one like that, does not highlight the lack of risk to the Worried Well, it actually magnifies it. When guilt is factored in, and people think they are being punished, they will always zone in on the one, rather than the 25 billion. So I really think it's better just to say things bluntly. There is no chance you are HIV positive at this stage. Because there isn't.
Sorry, just my two cents
Putting a number on it, even a daft one like that, does not highlight the lack of risk to the Worried Well, it actually magnifies it. When guilt is factored in, and people think they are being punished, they will always zone in on the one, rather than the 25 billion. So I really think it's better just to say things bluntly. There is no chance you are HIV positive at this stage. Because there isn't.
Sorry, just my two cents
They don't believe it when you tell them bluntly they don't have HIV, either. So I don't know what the right thing is!
"1 in 125 billion? Uh oh, I thought I was going to be OK..."
That is the thought that would have run through my head when I was going through my own anxious period. Eventually, though, I calmed down, as do and will a lot of the posters here.
The problem with odds is that we have very little conception of what they actually mean. Why do so many people play the lotto? Because, despite the stated odds of 1 in 300 million or so, some of us tend to believe that we will be that 1. It is why Las Vegas rakes in its billions, it is why the states who sponsor lotto do the same.
I once saw an excellent special on PBS on odds, and one of the participants discussed this phenomenon. He said that you can tell someone the odds until you are blue in the face, but a simple recitation of the numbers was very unlikely to have much effect. Instead, he discussed odds in different terms. For instance, he described the odds of winning a national lotter in this way:
"Imagine you are standing at the bottom of the Empire State building. Now, imagine that place a single cup somewhere along the bottom of the building, and then took an elevator to the roof. When you get to the top, you are handed a penny and a blindfold, and told to put the blindfold on, and then throw the penny over your shoulder. The odds that the penny will make it into the cup are the same as the odds that you will win the lottery."
I found it amusing and instructive, even if slightly (or, maybe not) exaggerated.
I have begun counciling over this and am currently on anti-anxiety medication as well which was prescribed over two weeks ago. I desperately want to put this behind me and I think it is crazy that I can't even accept the fact that I am negative after three tests say I am.
This forum has been a lifesaver for me as it shows that I am not the only one going through this.
I truly believe that HIV Anxiety is a disease in itself.
Thanks for your reply.
This forum has been a lifesaver for me as it shows that I am not the only one going through this.
I truly believe that HIV Anxiety is a disease in itself.
Thanks for your reply.
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