Statistics

[scareshitless]

I think the body and Dr.Frascino information is more accurate. Check out thebody.com to get some real answers and here is a link on explaining statistics on how hiv is being trasmitted, it can happen only after 1 exposure of unprotected.
http://www.thebody.com/Forums/AIDS/SafeSex/Current/Q183711.html

[Teak]

Joan, I'll add that the next time. Thanks for reminding me. But Joan, you know you are going against everyone here that says, "You don't contract HIV from one contact." Hmm, that would mean someone that contracted HIV by a sexual assault would have had to contracted HIV from their second assault because it wouldn't happen the first time and there wouldn't be a need to test the first time. How ironic.  

[dumbo]

that was quick.

http://profiles.nlm.nih.gov/MV/B/B/L/V/_/mvbblv.pdf

http://profiles.nlm.nih.gov/MV/B/B/S/C/_/mvbbsc.pdf
http://profiles.nlm.nih.gov/MV/Views/AlphaChron/series/014141/015022/015023/

just google H. Hunter Handsfield, M.D.

I don't know, to me, when someone is asked to help name a new virus, it shows they have been around it for awhile.....again, just because a person has it does not mean he/she is an expert.

[dumbo]

Go there and stay there then....please.  

I agree 100% with dobber.  Dr. Bob causes unnecessary fear imo....but he is hiv positive and if you follow boards moderated by people with hiv the answers are all pretty much the same.

Why?
for 2 reasons:

1. they do not want to see anyone go through what they are going through.  Respectable.

2. they are covering their ass.  they do not want to give out worng info to someone who may have lied, or not told the whole story and then have these same people come back and ask them wtf?  this is the net and they can only assess based on what people tell them.

capiche?

[mike_no]

I completely agree with dobber21, Yes Dr. HHH has a different perception about HIV and he has clarified the reason "WHY" in the past

This post was just not required

Damn ! I can't find the link...I'll paste it here as soon as I find it

[Joan123]

So, do your think that Dr. HHH's calculations are wrong!!? Dr. Bob himself says that those are not "his statistics", but CDC's. And everybody here knows that CDC tends to have a more conservator approach. He explains this really well here: http://www.medhelp.org/forums/HIV/messages/932.html

[mike_no]

I think you should read this

http://www.medhelp.org/forums/HIV/messages/932.html

[mike_no]

Wow !!!

You're quick, lady !

Keep up the good work :)

[txtony]

dr bob, and dr hhh both give very accurate risk assesment/analyses both by experience and research. the differrence is dr.bob stands by cdc 3mos definitive and conclusive even for bjs.and dr hhh, stands by his 6-8 wks window.
especially for low risk situation.
you are telling people to go there, go there there grass is greener. well that is not so. i dont agree. dr bob knows his stuff, proffesional and personal experience, himself diagnosed with hiv, i would say he has an enormous wealth of knowledge and gives good advice.
what path you choose is totally up to you. i hope when you are an intern or resident or have your practice, that you dont only look at one set of data in diagnosing your pts. you have to look the big picture and be stuck in tunnel vision.
what do i gather from all these web sites? seroconversion 2-4 wks, time to test pos 4-6 wks, cdc definitive results @ 12-13 wks, if sexually active with more than one partner, test once a yr. oral sex very to no risk, mtf ,ftm low risk
msm top low to high,bottom high risk, iv drug user, very high risk.
thats just me.

[Joan123]

What do you think of this: http://www.thebody.com/Forums/AIDS/SafeSex/Archive/Symptoms/Q173095.html

[Teak]

I don't see where it was explained well at all, except, the difference in what Dr. Bob does (treats patients) and Dr. HHH (juggles numbers). I know of several people that contracted HIV on their first exposure and I also know people that have unprotected sex with known HIV+ people that have never been infected. Playing the ODDS game vers. the Statistics are never as reliable as taking the test and receiving your results. You don't play odds with HIV nor would you do it with a revolver.

[txtony]

well said. i agree with you.

[Joan123]

I will try explain this the best way I can. English isn't my first language, so it is a little bit harder. I don't think anybody should gamble with his or her own life. I was just trying to show the different opinions at different between Dr. HHH and Dr. Bob.  I greatly respect both of them.
I believe that the 3 month test for high risk situations needs to be done. Both Dr. Bob and Dr. HHH think the same, too. For situations where there is basically no risk, but the person can't let go, Dr. HHH often suggests a 4-6 test as being pretty much conclusive. Who am I to say that Dr. HHH is wrong? The man has years of experience and research. I don't.
I don't think you should say that I'm gambling or telling people to gamble with their lifes when you don't even know my opinion. I'm sorry if I'm being to harsh. I just felt a little hurt with such judgment.

[Teak]

I didn't say that you said anything except saying that Dr. H explains it well inwhich he only explained the difference between himself and Dr. Bob and that Dr. Bob works with patients and he works with numbers.

[scareshitless]

I did not say Dr.HHH is wrong, different interpretation but my point here is that beside looking at statistics one should measure their own risk and yes one exposure have been documented for transmission. I dont want to cause any fear but one can not simply rely on statistics and keep on doing unprotected sex, bc some might look at the statistic and interpret it wrong and think that 1 out of 2000 exposure is low but its still a risk, and keep on doing high risk things by relying on those numbers. I have read on this forum that some have had unprotected sex with Sws, does not really matter if she/he is a sex worker or not, and by using these stats, they might think that it is such a low risk that they will not be safer the next time they put themselves into a sticky situation. Dr.HHH had replied to someone that sex workers in thailand have a low hiv %, but still it is very risky to take that chance by misinterpreting the numbers.

[Teak]

To add to your comment, there is a difference if a person is a sex worker working at a brothel in Nevada compared to a streetwalker that is working the streets of any city to get money for a fix.

[mike_no]

I'm not trying to doubt your competency when it comes to HIV know how and also respect both of you, you guys helped me during my scare but the paraghaph below :

"As a clinician, Dr. Bob (and CDC) tend to focus on the 95% senstitivity of the test at say 4-6 weeks, and say 'to reduce that to almost zero, be tested at 3 months'. As a public health physician, I say that 1 in 2 million are plenty good odds which, for all practical purposes, means there is no chance you have HIV. But if you want to drop those odds to 1 in 20 million, it's fine with me if you get retested"

I think this paragraph is pretty clear to tell us that there are times when Dr. Bob tends to be a bit conservative with his notions to the posters and there are a  few things which Dr. H would love to say but I'm sure he's not in the position to say due to legal aspects...this is my understanding,I might be wrong too.

[scareshitless]

Im sorry if scared anybody or cause anymore stress, I agree with Teak's comments that u should not play with odds! Yes, DrHHH is a number guy but u can not rely on these numbers and still involve urself in risky behaviors. Yes Dr Bob is trying to imply that. The numbers are reassuring after someone have put themselves at risk, but must face that those numbers are on a wide scale, not individual risk! Dont' get me wrong, those numbers got me very confused, just like the person who asked Dr. bob.
I posted this thread in order for people to get a sense of reality on these numbers.

[mike_no]

I think those odds are nothing but PRACTICALITY which is fairly justified with data...I'm sure !

[Teak]

Put a 6 shot revolver in your hand, knowing only one bullet is in the cylinder and spin the cylinder and hold the gun to your head. What is the odds that bullet is not in alignment with the hammer? Now are you going to take a chance and squeeze the trigger? That's what "Odds" are? Now do you feel comfortable with the odds?

[dumbo]

Where do the odds numbers come from?  Stats of course!!

Do you not think Dr.H has treated patients?  done risk assessments in a clinical atmosphere?  Where do you think he has been for 30years.?  Maybe he does not do so now but in past I know he has assessed risk to actual patients/people.  He has said this directly in past posts.

To imply he only gets his info from odds calcs is rediculous.  Again, do you think a man of this caliber would assess a person only on odds?  Or do you think he has seen a thing or two?

I am just amazed at how people will refues to hear the honest to God's truth that they are getting from Dr.H and will listen to the layman with zip for knowledge, hiv infected or not.  I just can't believe it.

Seriously, you people who doubt the "real" doc, and want to accept a random net posters comments as truth should leave immediately and goto the body.com or aidsmeds where they will tell you what you think you already know.  Why hang around here and waste your time?

[scareshitless]

Im pretty sure i will not squizze that trigger even if my odds are 1 in 2000 that i will get a bullet in myhead, its low but one shot could blow my head off. Sorry to all again bc I know some people will actually live by those odds and forget that one shot one kill.

[scareshitless]

dumbo, stop trying to be a wise guy here, capiche! People are scared that is y they come to this site for relief, me too! Its not about who is wrong or who is rite, those stats are form the cdc, but people needs to be careful and understand the numbers, and be safer

[Teak]

He sure in the hell hasn't been working with HIV 30 years. They didn't have a name for it thirty years ago. They didn't know what was causing the deaths of young  men. So don't say he has been working with it for 30 years because that is not true. 1981 was the first AIDS case. 1984 was when the virus was identified and 1985 was when the first test was developed.

[mike_no]

Well, I think now this discussion is becoming illogical

one bullet in a 6 shot revolver and HIV are not even comparable, I understand you are trying to compare odds here but that does not makes any sense to me

Even I can say,

Start walking on the railway track - see a train coming your way - don't get off the track - possibility of you dying ?

A: 100 %

Similarly, if that was the scenario every one having sex with an HIV positive individual would have acquired HIV