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Be well,
-- Jim
And then I just say NAHHHHHHHHHHHH. Sounds dumb, can't be true. But?????????? ;-)
My question relates to probability of SVR with 24 or 48 weeks of treatment.
Now lets say we are talking about the 12 x 12 triple therapy with telaprevir. Suppose telaprevir clears the wild type virus to UND in 2 weeks but there are still resistant mutations left hanging around for the 12 weeks below the level of detection. You cannot extrapolate anything about how those mutations will behave in the 2nd 12 weeks under SOC alone because you are using a different drug cocktail.
So bottom line, I don't see how RVR as a predictor of SVR can be meaningful if the drugs used are switched part way through tx.
In your case the drug cocktail did eliminate all of the virus below the assay over the first 3 weeks, and that's obviously a great result for you. And you've stayed UND since then, which is even better. The hope is that the triple therapy hit the virus so fast that it knocked it out totally before it had a chance to establish viable resistance and you get your SVR.
That's the action of the viral kinetics of telaprevir though, and can't be confused with using RVR as a predictor of SVR in cases where resistant mutations persist below the radar even after telaprevir is discontinued.
Gawd, if only they had a test which could tell us when ALL the virus was gone!
dointime.
dointime
http://clinicaloptions.com/Hepatitis/Treatment%20Updates/Small%20Molecule%20HCV%20Agents/Modules/Chung/Pages/Page%2011.aspx
"On-treatment viral kinetics will likely continue to be helpful predictive tools, but their role is necessarily expected to shift with addition of STAT-C agents. For instance, NS3/4A and NS5B inhibitors should be associated with high rates of Week 4 rapid viral response and Week 12 early virologic response by virtue of their action as direct antiviral agents. What remains to be seen, however, is whether the achievement of earlier viral clearance will translate to improved SVR rates for patients receiving peginterferon alfa plus ribavirin for a shorter duration than standard of care. In other words, the predictive value of rapid viral response and early virologic response achievement with STAT-C regimens will likely require re-evaluation, since a rapid kinetic decline achieved with a directly acting antiviral agent may not equate to the rapid decline achieved with peginterferon alfa and ribavirin. The results of upcoming phase II studies of add-on treatment to standard of care will be instructive in this regard."
dt.
http://www.medhelp.org/posts/show/322425
"I have too much brain fog to trust my conclusions, but I did conclude from two abstracts, that the percentage of people that reach undetectable by week 4 is the same percentage that reaches SVR.
Did you conclude that as well or am I suffering too much from brain fatigue to process all the data?"
I have to say that I did not read anything in those abstracts which demonstrates that RVR with telaprevir predicts SVR with about 90% certainty, as is the case currently with SOC alone.
Sorry, I know that's not the answer you want to hear. If I missed something then please let me know. We're all learning as we go and I need to be fully primed with all the info for my next round.
dt.
Oh yeah, you said above "...asked if continuing for another 24 weeks would do more potential harm than good, based on studies that show relatively equivalent SVR rates for 24 and 48 week treatment of patients who achieved RVR. His answer was that the the mechanism that produces the steep viral decline using the PI is different and they really don't know for sure." Well, yeah maybe they don't know for sure, but it's a pretty safe bet (especially with what happened to the VX950 24 week group). Let me give you a tip: the *real* reason he's saying that is so you will not discontinue early and drop out before your assigned treatment duration. That would screw up their data, and it might screw up the amount of compensation he'll be receiving from Schering Plough too. Not that I'm suggesting you should drop out early, but take what he said with a big fat grain of salt is all.
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Of course your doctor is correct and like you said, that's why it's a trial -- and frankly, what else could he say given his position as a trial coordinator? However, like "Mre" says, the magic number for Telaprevir appears to be "24" and not "48".
All the best and yes, being UND at week 2 is awesome.
-- Jim
I re-read some of the papers and it seems to me that if you achieve RVR by week 4 and don't have a breakthrough by week 24 you have a very high probability of SVR. I am to foggy to do the exact math, but it seems to me that if you fall into the above catagory you have a better than 90% chance of SVR.
I only wish I could get my head clear enough to put the numbers into a spreadsheet. But that will have to wait until I am off treatment!
I haven't read any of the papers under discussion. But looking at this quote "One paper had the RVR rate at 80% and the other had the SVR rate at 80%. Sounds like a good predictor to me!" - At face value - there's no proven correlation between RVR and SVR. It could theoretically be true that 100% of the non-RVRs reached SVR, making non-RVR a compelling predictor for SVR.
Using a less extreme example, lets say 100 pts in study. 80 reach RVR - 20 do not. Possible that 74 RVRs make SVR and 16 SVRs, for a total SVR rate of 80%. In that case the RVR event has no bearing on SVR whatsoever - 80% of either group make SVR.
In the normal world, if a large group gets RVR at 80% and another large group SVR at 80%, it becomes likely, but not definite, that RVR predicts SVR. It is not guaranteed that it will happen, just more likely. Even if all the people are in the same study, not all RVR will reach SVR and even if they all do, there is still uncertainty because of the coin flip problem.
So until we have a cause and effect established, we will only have probability to deal with. It is better than nothing, but far from perfect.
It seem logical to me that that the major variables are our bodies ability to deliver the drugs to the virus (absorption and delivery), the type of variant virus and the efficiency of our immune system. Vertex is measuring these things now and hopefully, someday we will have more definitive ways of measuring the direct variables involves with SVR.
First, it certainly is far more accurate to have the same group of people followed from RVR through SVR and I didn't mean to imply otherwise. That said, accurate is a relative term, not absolute and using to groups to infer something does provide insight into the usefulness of RVR with Telaprevir.
I think we all agree that RVR is a good predictor with SOC and the reason for this is that is also is based on the same factors that produce SVR: those I mentioned in my earlier post and I am sure plenty that I am aware of. So if we have to measurements of the same data with one available before the other, we can say one is a predictor of the other.
So we have two studies of two groups. All the people in both groups have HCV. I ask the following questions:
If 0% in group A achieve RVR and 80% in group B achieve SVR is it more likely that RVR is a predictor of SVR?
If 100% of group A achieve RVR and 80% of group B achieve SVR is it more likely that RVR is a predictor?
If 80% of group A achieve RVR and 80% of group B achieve SVR is it more likely that RVR is a predictor? Since this is the case, I think taking all the data about RVR into consideration, I think it is likely that RVR is as good a predictor with Telaprevir as it is with SOC.
Eric
I haven't heard much either from others who are in this trial. The amount of information out there is really limited. I know our study coordinator has only 2 other patients, one also became UND somewhere between day 1 and day 14, I am not sure about the other. My experience has been about typical for SOC - the first 12 weeks were pretty hard with anemia and nausea being the worst sx. Thanks to procrit I am doing much better and tolerating things pretty well. It is hard to say for sure, but I don't think any of the sx are due to the investigational drug. I have a mild rash but I think that is due to the riba. All in all, based on my limited experience, this drug is showing real promise. I will be sure to keep you updated on my progress.
Desrt; " the RVR is meaningless. Everyone gets it including those who relapse immediately."
I'm not sure this is correct. Yes, most TVR responders DO RVR. I think I
heard that all but one viral breakthru was within 4 weeks. A nearly double SVR rate may end up accompanying the great RVR data. Are they linked; almost certainly. I don't know if anyone has spoken about the ultra responders who clear in a few days or within a week. Should those folks be in a whole new category of responders who can treat for even shorter durations? (shorter than on a 12&12)
It's true that the idea has not specifically been tested on PI's or on Vertex but I believe that the data coming in will show that there will be a curve with response which corresponds to cure. IF the response rate is too slow the virus can mutate around the treatment in many (but not all) cases. Also keep in mind that an ultra sensitive PCR can still leave a tremendous amount of HCV RNA in a persons blood or tissue even though it comes back as "undetectable".
Whatever the treatment, whether SOC or SOC with TVR or some new cocktail concoction the mechanisms of immune response remain the same, as does viral replication of HCV. You can change the drugs but the host and virus remain largely the same. The same mechanisms for responding and maintaining an SVR may be quite similar in both SOC and SOC with TVR. I think the mutations could be a wild card in the mix where a relatively few resistant virii remain and although an RVR is attained it is not durable.
We can hope that a full dosage regimen (with rescue drugs if needed) may help the ultimate SVR rate. We may also see that the inclusion of another drug into the cocktail (whether SCH 503034 (boceprevir) or other new compounds in trials) could wipe outmore of those last remaining varients and provide a higher ultimate SVR rate.
I think for most people a slow response rate allows those variants to mutate around a treatment. A fast and complete response may be the key to SVR. I believe that it will remain a key predictor for SVR.
Willy
How about this - 80% of the people in the study were blonde. 80% of participants SVR'd. There is no statistical relationship between blonde and SVR.
Maybe there is more data - again I have read the papers. Commonsense would certainly say that RVR improves one's odds. First clearing the virus at any point improves you above the 80%. Then RVR presumably improves the odds further. No breathrough improves the odds yet further, as does full compliance while on tx.
I don't mean to rain on your parade at all. I know you are preparing for a possibnly significant decision point - and so I want to share with you what I viewed as a flaw in the logic progression.
Take care and be well. It really looks like you have this one on the ropes. Soon you will close this final chapter in your history of treating Hepc.
Thanks for the good wishes. I guess we have fleshed this out as far as possible without more data.
I have decided to stick it out as long as I can do it. It gets harder the older I get, but I feel substantially better now that I am off Telaprevir.
I don't see that connection. Glad that you do. Best wishes.
While I don't agree with you completely, you are certainly right that any meaningful data must all come from the same study tracking individuals from RVR to SVR.
Eric
As to RVR and SVR with SOC, we do know that a strong relationship exists and there is no reason not to expect the same with Telaprevir. It may turn out, however, that RVR with Telaprevir is different from RVR with SOC. It may be UND at week 2 (or even 1) versus week 4. But I haven't really delved into it myself, so here I'm speculating.
That said, I have read that Telaprevir tx time could conceivable be brought down from 24 weeks to possibly even 12 in some individuals. I imagine the criteria used would be viral response, i.e. RVR, however that might be defined with Telaprevir.
-- Jim
The papers do suggest that TPR hits the wild virus hard and eliminates it within the first two weeks. After that, it is the job of ifn/riba to hit the mutants. I guess that means you could make a case that the slope of the curve will be different, but I still maintain that early undetectable means the same thing with or without TPR. Hopefully, I will have more information later today after I talk with the big guy.
-- Jim
RVR is the same with or without a PI.
In my case, because of my age and the fact that I will not treat again, I should go the 48 weeks.
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Yes that's my understanding also, BUT it doesn't make sense if you really think about it IMO. If both people are on SOC, and one person is a geno 1 and is RVR at week 4 and the geno 2 is also UND at week 4 (and not before).....this tells me that the person who is geno 2 has a few tough virons. It makes no sense why they have both on equal ground.
-- Jim
more than I do and this is crazy when I think about it, RVR for Geno 1 is great at 4 weeks cause its a strong virus,,,BUT my geno 2 is supposed to be 'weaker,' BUT if it takes JUST AS LONG AS GENO 1 for RVR, it doesn't look that WEAK to me. I know I am repeating myself,,but this is so plain a clear to see and I didn't see it before -ever - and it hit me today. I will bring this up at my appointment.
Thanks for your reply.
In fact, even with geno 1's, I have no doubt that better predictions could be made if more studies were done with earlier testing (weeks 1 and 2 for example) and then correlated with SVR. I believe some were done but not enough. And then again, this would require testing patients starting at week 1, which only a few of us got. Hard enough to get some doctors to even test at week 4.
-- Jim
Hope this helps *dip*
PSP, thanks but I think I am having trouble getting my point across. Re- read my posts and maybe you will understand what I mean. I've never been that great at getting my point across.
Whether or not this is an optimum reference point for all genotypes is another matter. Probably it isn't and maybe newer trials will study different UND points such as week 2 or even earlier, for both genotypes.
Why they didn't study viral load at points earlier than week 4 for genotype 2's and 3's I don't I don't know. I think they should have for all the reasons you gave. Let us know what your doctor says on this matter.
All the best,
-- Jim
The numbers I have seen are just the ratios of SVR(who RVR's)/RVR. I may have missed it, but I do not recall seeing a confidence number as well.If I am correct, then there is no statistical significance being asserted.
In any event with out the context of a model I think it is difficult to make inferences or predictions.
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Jim plain and simple,,,NO logic. Most of them just don't have it for some reason and I'm not just saying this because of what we are discussing today but there are alot of things that make no sense IMO with what they say. Here's just 2 examples that come to mind.....
1.. don't let your spouse use your toothbrush YET,,they say its safe to breast feed, BUT,, of course if your nipples crack ,quickly throw the child to the ground to prevent infecting her.LOL Well of course they don't really say quickly throw the child to the ground, but I think you get my point....what are women supposed to do if all of a sudden they "see" blood on their nipple?AND,, only the blood particle on the tooth brush is dangerous and not the nipple?? Now of course we don't have to "see" blood for it to be there, so again.... where's the logic..
2. homosexuals are at high risk for contracting HCV during sex - not heterosexuals....oh, I guess the reason is gays have the 'good sex' and don't just lie there like road- kill the way married women do. LOL
So thats the story.
I'll let ya know. I will be seeing the doc soon.
My theme song LOL
seeya later.
On RVR for diff genotypes - my sense is it's pretty much the same - RVR means something in the 24 week range - non-RVR means something in the 48 week range, regarless of GT. I think it's probably a little different because of crudenesss in the measuring stick. I'd venture that of RVR's the GT2 RVR's probably cleared on avaerage earlier than the GT1's - and similarly of the non-RVRs, the GT1s will probably on average clear later than the GT2's. So if we tested weekly, or semi-weekly, I think it quite probable that it would be the viral decline slope that mattered - not the genotype.
Geno 2 and 3 no RVR = 50% SVR (1 out of 3 do not attain RVR)
Geno 1 RVR = 90% SVR (1 out of 5 attain RVR)
Geno 1 EVR = 70-80% SVR (2 out of 5 attain EVR)
Geno 1 slow responders = 20-30% SVR (1 out of 5 are slow responders)
To me a geno 2 or 3 with an RVR (week 4) is more similar to a geno 1 with an EVR (week 12). Actually I would be reluctant to call an UND week 4 a rapid response for geno 2 and 3. I agree with you here.
A geno 2 or 3 who is not UND by week 4 is a slow responder, and needs to consider extension and/or dose increase.
A geno 1 who is not UND by week 12 is a slow responder, and needs to consider extension and/or dose increase.
I think you are making a very interesting point here. If one is a slow responder as of week 5 as a geno 2 or 3, how can one be a rapid responder up to this very day?
I mean, yes there are so many other things to take into consideration as we all know - stage/grade etc. In my case 2b ("RVR" < according to 'their rules' , not mine after today) BUT I had a high VL to start with 8 million plus,,,but here's the interesting thing or at least interesting to me,,,,,when I was first dx my VL was over 10 million,,,now think of it,,,yes the VL fluctuates and yes it went down to 8 million BEFORE tx started,,so my immune system was controlling the other 2 million??? It wasn't KILLED OFF cause I wasn't on tx,, so where are these virons go when our VL fluctuates? I don't know,,,BUT its NOT in the SERUM,,,so is it in the TISSUE?? I really don't know, and I have always wondered but I have a feeling that is where it goes (maybe I am wrong) BUT if I am right, in order to 'reach ' ALL that were in hiding, a longer tx may have done the job cause maybe my immune system was too weak after tx to control these others that it didn't or couldn't get to.... Again, I have no idea what I am talking about.Just guessing at this stuff.
One of the things that has led me down this path of thinking this way is that when you get hormones tested, the blood test show of course whats in the serum and a saliva test will show 'tissue level.' Tissue level and blood level is never the same ..AND scientists have said that HCV is found in saliva when the VL is high. To tell you the truth, I think they should test saliva when we are on tx in addition to blood - at least at end of tx.
But anyhow, nice talking to ya. Thanks again.
As for fluctuation between 8 mil and 10 mil - I think its pretty insignificant. If I recall correctly - the tests can vary that much given blood from the same draw. In any event, levels fluctuate quite a bit I think, kinda a natural ebb and flow.
In my case, he felt that my age suggested that I would be safer treating for 48 weeks even though I experienced RVR.
I was told similar (58 at the time) by my treating doctor, however two other liver specialists suggested that my RVR trumped age.
One difference, however, is that I was treatment naive while you did not respond previously. The other is that I was more or less SOC, while you're on a trial drug. Plus you mentioned that this may be your last treatment. So all told, going for 48 make sense if you can tolerate it. Two age-related studies below. Wish they broke them down in terms of RVR versus non-RVR.
http://www.natap.org/2006/AASLD/AASLD_49.htm
http://www.natap.org/2005/EASL/easl_5.htm
The one thing I am sure of re: age, the older you are, the more difficult the SX are. I do think I can hang in there for another 21 weeks. At least I will try. Procrit would sure make life easier!
-- Jim
I know we don't agree on this, but I still believe it is a money issue and Vertex appears to be burning cash at a higher rate than predicted based on Q3 data. My research coordinator says that rescue drugs have to be paid for by the company running the trial in order to keep a level playing field. There are 400 people in prove 3, so allowing procrit would cost them a fair amount of money.
Eric
-- Jim
I am sure Dr D would go along with it, but I would have to make that choice without him, since he is involved in the trial and can't give me that advice without a conflict of interest.
Eric
-- Jiim
Eric
Still an open quesition: Is it a predictor of SVR with treatment experienced people? I think the answer is yes, but probably a lower percentage of SVRs.
that's not an impossible theory, after all, before peniccillin, we threw sulfa etc at things and came close but no wipe out. so if this trio happens to be a better wipeout, than it is closer to the final penicillin for HCV. makes sense to me, though not an occultist.