Relapse rates after 12 weeks post therapy

Does anyone know if I am clear after 12 weeks after therapy what the chances are that I could relapse without cirrhosis?  I can't find anything on pegasys and ribaviron that indicates the chance of relapse.  The question could be what percentage if they relapse, do so in the first 12 weeks.  I know this is a selfish question, but it is what I am waiting on right now so I am preoccupied with any info anyone has.  Mary ellen

[CockSparrow]

Around 90% relapse in the first six weeks.
Another 5% relapse up to Week 12
A further 3% or so Relapse between wwks 12 and 24.
After that the numbers are really low and almost no one relapses after 2 years post.
Unless they get re infected that is.

The above is from memory so the stats might be out a little.
Some studies have indicated that the 3 month post PCR is as good as the 6 month Posts PCR at predicting SVR so long as you dont have cirrhosis.

CS

[TeeVee36]

Wow, those figures really scare me.  If 90% relapse than only 10% make it to SVR?  That is very discouraging news.  I will be finished with my 48 wk tx on May 9th (last shot) and will be anxiously waiting for my post PCR lab results.  

I know that my doctor only orders them every 12 weeks; now I think I want a 6 wk one...

[beatrice57]

No I think there has been a misunderstanding 90% of relapsers relapse in the first 6 weeks!

[Andiamo1]

I think cocksparrow is saying these are the figures for the 50% of SOC treated people that relapse.  So divide the numbers in half if you want to see the relapse rates for the entire group.

[CockSparrow]

The figures are for when you are Clear at EOT.
If you are going to relapse most will in the first few weeks.

CS

[CockSparrow]

To clear any confusion
The figures are for those that relapse not those who start treatment.

A PCR test at 12 weeks post EOT will be around 95% acurate in predicting SVR
Its close to 100% if you are not cirrhotic.

A PCR Test a 4-6 weeks Post EOT would be apx 90%

UND at 24 weeks post EOT = Cure.
The likelyhood of relapse after this time point is incredicanly low but can happen up to 2 years Post EOT.

Hope thats cleared things up
CS

[meki]

It cleared things up for me CS... *G*

But hey --- you know what --- I like those relapse rates...

If you're going to do it --- it is so much better to do it RIGHT AWAY --- than to do it later. Too much hope is involved.

Hugs sweetie!

[CockSparrow]

Good to SeeYa around. You been hibernating or what.
CS

[meki]

Yeah - hibernating... LOL!

Got sick - had girlie issues and got everything all better and on the mend now.

Hugs back@ya!

[CockSparrow]

There is a new HepB board. Drop bye and say Hi to SevenNYer
Glad UR all better.

CS

[mar148]

Thank you so much for your feedback, it will help me get through each test, tomorrow's my birthday a I am having a one month EOT test.  Crossing my fingers, you know how time goes slow when you are waiting.  Mary Ellen

[kk7788]

i just completed my fifth week injection on pegasys and had my viral load run again. the original load was 3,330,000 (IU/mL). the test today came back 8410 (IU/mL). that sounds like a huge jump to me. is that typical? does this mean i will have good success with this treatment? i also take 6 ribivirin a day. i am new at this and was hoping some of you could help make these numbers make sense to me. should i be celebrating, or is too soon.--i am genotype 1, so my treatments are supposed to go 48 weeks. man, they are rough. i really need a good report to keep me going. i'm raising a two-year-old while i'm going through it. well, i hope someone gets back to me. thanks, kk

[mar148]

Well I think this calculate to 3 log drop at4 weeks, I assume you are type 1, I think is good so far.  Cross your fingers you are clear at 12.   Good Luck  mary ellen

[Lady Lauri]

Meki, Cs..... I like the stats also as if clear at 4-6 weeks, more hope, clear at 12 weeks, can relax a lot also. CS is so great on this info., studies. You better stcik around here :)

kk788.... Other 'pro's' will be along with exact info., but  I think it means you are not an early responder, tho it is a good drop in VL.Geezzz, I can't remember if it's UND by week 12 with geno 1 to be RVR?  I can't think so good today :(
Popping this to the top so the ones that know exactly can respond.

LL

[kk7788]

i have just completed my 46th interferon shot, but i have developed breathing problems in the last two weeks. my doctor ordered a pulmonary function test, and i failed it miserably. he then stuck a scope down my nose and looked at my throat, but found that my throat looks fine. the next step is a cardiologist for heart testing. all of the doctors swear the interferon won't cause this, but it seems suspicious to me. has anyone else had this kind of problem? the lung specialist says he's never seen a case like this and can't figure out what is wrong. the liver doctor says it may be some strange infection from being so immune suppressed for the last 10 months, but he's never seen anything like this either. if anyone has had the same experience, i would be grateful to hear from you.
thank, kk7788

[sunshine585]

I and many others, developed shortness of breath, during treatment. It varied, at times, I was very short of breath, with pounding heart, just walking from my bed to the bathroom. I was told, this is common with tx. If I'm not mistaken, it's on the list of side effects. Is this your problem? If it is, be assured it does go away, after tx.