VX 8 weeks post TX = UND

The results of the 8 weeks post labs are just in.

CBC is completely normal - HGB & WBC are back to pre-tx levels.

AST & ALT are normal - 16 & 22 respectively.

VL is UND

So far, so good!

Pre-tx summary:

Geno 1b, Stage 3 histology, VL 28,400,000, AST 79, ALT 124.

Prove 1 Arm C - 12 weeks VX + SOC followed by 12 weeks SOC.

[lab-rat]

Congratulations - that's awesome news!  You must be thrilled.  

[Skepsis]

You are probably saved! I can't recall the exact numbers, but over 90% of all relapses are occurring during these first 8 weeks. I know, this is true with SOC only, but I would expect this short-time relapse characteristics even more with shorter effective therapies.

Envy aside: CONGRATULATIONs !!!

[orleans]

Keepin' hope alive!

[jmjm530]

WOW! So tempted to say this is a done deal!!!  Starting to think that this may be the breakthrough we have all been praying for. Hopefully we'll get numbers from the entire 24 week ARM in the not too distant future as well as the 12 week ARM.

Be well,

-- Jim

[mremeet]

You're kind of an annoying guy (and once again your dates aren't lining up), but I'm still glad you seem to be getting your SVR. And even if you are a mister make believe, it feels good to think the vertex is working. Good luck to you.

...oh, and tell Boger I said hi. ;-)

[jmjm530]

If you have them handy, could you post again the dates/results of your viral load tests. Curious if you kept going in and out of "29" and "-30" like some. PS I think the 'smiley' at the end of Mre's post means he's starting to believe you although doubt if you'll ever be best of buddies but better stand back before someone pops me :)

-- Jim

[jmjm530]

Of course that should have been "<30" (aka <10), not "-30"

[APKhaos]

Jim,
The only '29' on my labs was that one back on day 15 of tx. Every VL since then has been the very welcome <30IU/ml No HCV RNA detected.

Its still too early for me to be doing any celebrating, but this is definitely as good as it gets for 8 weeks post. I'm saving the real celebration for the UND at 12 months post :-)

[miked]

Do I understand you right...you were on VX950 plus SOC for 12 weeks; then on only SOC for another 12 weeks; and right now you are UND 8 weeks past stopping tx?  Correct?

Please confirm in that I too am a 1b and at the crossroads of joining a Prove 3 trial.

If this is correct....CONGRATS!

Mike

[APKhaos]

That's right. The C Arm of the trial 12 weeks of VX + SOC followed by 12 weeks of SOC for a total of 24 weeks tx.

As Jim said, the complete picture of 24 week results is an important milestone. Assuming there are no safety surprises, those results will show how effective the shorter treatment with the three drugs may be.

I'm starting to think about the plain dumb luck of all this. After finding out in mid 2005 that I'd had HCV for 30+ years, then doing nothing for 3 months while absorbing the shock, then taking a second opinion on treatment from a clinic that just happened to be considering participation in Prove 1, then being accepted as a subject, to this very promising result might be the best example of the planets aligning in my life that was completely external to my control. Dumb luck.

[mremeet]

Oh yeah one more thing apk - Vertex isn't measuring ALT and AST for those patients at your point in the post-treatment phase. Guess you got your bloodwork done at a "private lab", huh??

[APKhaos]

I'm looking at the Chemistry page of the trial-provided lab report from weeks 4 post, which is exactly the same panel as its been right through the trial. It includes ALT and AST.

It really is time you stopped posting flat out lies on this board. Your misinformation is not appreciated.

[mremeet]

You're looking at "your 4 week post" labwork? But this post is pertaining to your 8 week post treatment lab results, not your 4 week post lab results...remember?? Why would you be looking at 4 wk lab results when you're reporting on your 8 wk results? Are they not "handy", is that it? (even though you just reported them a few hours ago) And I just spoke with another trial participant who had their 8 week post labs completed, and AST and ALT are not included. The study nurse even called Vertex to verify that no one else in the study was getting AST or ALT assessed at 8 weeks post tx. From what I heard the nurse said Vertex confirmed that only viral load and viral sequencing (in the event of a + VL) are being looked at. As I'm sure you know the required labwork is applied and processed consistently (barring special circumstances) for all trial participants (by Covance labs of course).

Anyway, I really don't know why there would yet another apparent inconsistency here - do you? I guess we'll have to wait and hear from the other trial participants to get it cleared up, huh? In the meantime thanks for sharing your results, certainly is encouraging for those of us still waiting in the wings. ;-)

[jmjm530]

Other issue aside, do you have some other viral load numbers from the other trial participant that you're able to share? I assume they're in the 24-week group as well?

-- Jim

[mremeet]

Very limited info, and out of privacy to those person(s) I'll hold off saying more for now - other than to say things are definitely looking up (although I can't tell you what their LFT's are for the reasons specified above). Thank goodness we have APK's "special" labwork to let us know what to expect liver enzyme-wise 8 wks post tx! ;-)  Ahh maybe I shouldn't say that. Let's just wait and see what the others report back from their 8 wk post labwork.

[mremeet]

Um, that last post was to you. Not talking to myself, promise!

[miked]

I'll take luck and timing anyday over skill.

Congrats.

[willows]

Hey, you guys make me crazy.  I know one of you thinks the other is a Vertex spy, for god knows what reason, but as someone here just for the info, you two make me crazy.

One million things come to mind.  Do you both know you are in the same clinic for trials?  Different clinics may request ALT/AST, others may not.  Nit picking is great if I have nits, really help me out.  

And if this other person with the great results thinks I'm gonna run out and buy the stock, because they cleared, well....Vertex or whoever may want to pay someone to post on this board day after day, needs to find a better way to live a life.  If the hand of god or the forum folks come down on me for this post, so be it.  But why don't you two just come out and be truthful?  Call a spy a spy, back it up and then let's get past it.  I have have more than enough bad vibes from my virus, here seems like such a bad place to spread more.  From either side.  

I always hated "SPY vs. SPY."  I never got the humor in those comics.

Willow's confused and cranky

[chcnme]

awesome awesome AWESOME YES!

[mremeet]

LOL! Sorry to make you cranky or confused, that's understandable and I apologize if I've contributed to it. I'm confused too, been confused about apk for a long time. But I can promise you this, I'm not lying nor am I misrepresenting myself in any way. I might make mistakes occasionally like all human beings, but I have not nor will I ever intentionally misrepresent myself or my experiences in the VX-950 trial. I do my very best to present the full and complete facts in context as best I know them, both good AND bad. I can promise you there is no spin or deception coming from me and I challenge anyone here to prove otherwise (including mr apk of course!).

And speaking a bit on apk, apk has provided several different versions concerning both when he started treatment, and when he stopped treatment. There are also a myriad of other finer details that he can't seem to keep straight (or get right). That's why some of us feel he's somewhat suspicious, without actually having direct and conclusive evidence of him playing some kind of game here. So no, we can't say conclusively he's a fake or a "plant" of some type, and even I'm starting to accept he's probably just some poor sap with a REALLY bad and discombulated memory. But for the uninvolved casual reader/poster who hasn't followed all the boring and tedious details of this silliness, I can see why it would be annoying to sift through. Sorry about that, I'd suggest skipping over it in the future (although I know that's not always easy to do!).  

In the meantime, we'll just have to sit and wait to hear back from the others as their 8 week labwork comes in. Maybe I got the ALT/AST thing wrong or there's been some sort of miscommunication here. Either way, we'll see soon enough.

[SandyBreeze]

This is promising news for you (as well as others) and truly hope congratulations will be order for you in the future!  As far as someone attempting to rain on your parade... I'm not sure what that's all about... however quite sure most of us out here are focusing on your positive news!

[Kalio1]

that is fantastic! Way to go! So glad to hear you are clear at this point. I hope everyone is! I would think being clear at the 8 week mark puts you way up there close to a 100% chance you beat it.

[willows]

Well, if I was a spy, I'm not sure I'd know why exactly.  And if I was hunting spys, I don't know what I'd want to do with one if I found one here.  

If APKaos is a spy or a mean person, well, the gods will get them for tampering with the hopes of vulnerable people who are sick.  And if Meet is picking on an innocent person, the gods will dole out some serious guilt for tampering with the hopes of some vulnerable people.  

Hey, it all balances out in the end.  The hopes of vulnerable, sick people will win out in the end.  Truth is such a bright light.

Willow

P.S.  I feel bad for all the discourse here about the FDA and the trials...what should be told to folks, when it should be told, etc.  The memory of the day I lost my virginity about the goodness and ethics of the FDA and the nobility of Vertex is still very fresh in my mind.  To sum it up, they don't care, the FDA has a set of rules that would choke a trojan horse and Vertex has a plan that includes cherry picking, non-disclosure, perfectly timed PR and lobbyists/doctors out the yazoo.  We are truly just the lab rats in the maze.  My bitterness is showing, but it is a true color and I can live with it.  Just the way it is.

"Never mind"  Willow

[cigaso]

I think what everyone can learn from the APK and Mremeet discourse is that no matter what we hear we should be obligated to find out the facts for ourselves. This could take a while because, as far as VX950 or any clinical trial goes, only the official clinical findings really matter. On one hand, we all hope APK is right, but on the other hand and as we have seen, information posted on a non-regulated web site can be misleading or just flat incorrect.  

[3txsofar]

There is absolutely no logical reason for Vertex to try and manipulate the stock price by having someone post on this board.

Everyone knows that they will be presenting critical data that has been thorough vetted at scientific meetings this summer.  Those presentations will directly affect the stock price.  Vertex certainly knows that.

Any deceptive posting on a chat board might affect the stock price, but only until the meetings in the summer.

So, why would Vertex do it?  They will not be helped by share price fluctuations between now and the summer. And if they did it and were caught the ramifications would be catastrophic for them.

I wish we could drop this discussion about Vertex planting posts, unless someone can come up with some logical reason for Vertex actually doing it.  In short, what's the motive?

[Upbeat]

Been reading posts on this board for a long time and this thread is the topper.  This is what I call intertainment.

                                             Ron

[mremeet]

Who said that vertex is attempting to manipulate their own stock price by "planting" someone here? And I agree with you, to do so would be a VERY legally risky thing for them to do - so much so, barring a flagrantly Enron-esque disregard for the law, I don't see that happening.

But to go as far as to flatly say "There is absolutely no logical reason for Vertex to try and manipulate the stock price..." is going too far. And again, NOT that vertex is doing anything like this, but how many corporate scandals did we see in the late 90's and to this very day that were/are associated with internal stock price manipulation by CEO's and their cronies? While it's true the company (and its stockholders) as an aggregate will ultimately suffer (and even go under for good) as a consequence of false/criminal stock price manipulation, that doesn't necessarily stop CEO's and the like from engaging in short term manipulation so as to cash out THEIR personal holdings before the final outcome is realized. (i.e. personally enriching themselves at the explicit expense of ordinary "non-insider" investors). And once the company goes belly up, they could care less because they're set for life, often with 100's of millions hidden away in their Swiss accounts. So please do not state that there's no reason on god's good earth why any company would ever do such a thing. As we've all seen in the last ten years or so, that just ain't so! Just ask Lang and Skilling if you're unclear on this.

Secondly, stock price manipulation isn't just performed by company insiders. In fact, more often than not, this occurs from unscrupulous outside stock holders who either individually or collusively attempt to manipulate the price of penny stocks or otherwise volatile stocks (like pharmaceutical stocks with big whiz-bang drugs under development, for instance). And the most likely way that happens today is via spam emails/faxes/mailing and above all, on internet chat forums. You can be whomever you want to be on internet chat forums, there's almost always no real way to confirm the identity of most people you encounter. Because this is true, it's very easy for one or more people (or a single person with multiple aliases), to go online to multiple forums and "talk up" a particular product and/or stock. Speculators that read these forums then take the bait, thereby driving the price up. The "pump and dumpers" will then quickly unload their stock before the new buyers figure out what's going on. This kind of thing happens all the time, just take a look at the links below. And especially make note of how a 15 year old kid easily did this quite successfully. Here's an excerpt:

"Internet Fraud: How to Avoid Internet Investment Scams:

Bulletin Boards

Online bulletin boards

[mikesimon]

Did you learn anything about stock manipulation? I found it a truly fascinating and enlightening dissertation but a little too brief in my opinion. Mike

[3txsofar]

My post above wasn't concerned at all with the fact that individuals unconnected with a company will try and manipulate prices of stocks by posting accurate and inaccurate information on boards.  No question about that, but it wasn't my point.

People had posted on this thread and others about "Vertex plants" and "Vertex spys".  I was reacting to that. I said , "There is absolutely no logical reason for Vertex to try and manipulate the stock price by having someone post on this board."  And I posted clear reasons as to why.  Specifically, the share price will have a very firm value on it after the scientific meeting this summer and that any effect of pumping on a board would be temporary and of no value to the company.

You posted a portion of my quote - "There is absolutely no logical reason for Vertex to try and manipulate the stock price.." .  That partial use of my quote makes it a much broader statement and would encompass all sorts of legal and illegal activities.  So, I wish you had stuck to my exact quote.

You then discussed how individuals - Skilling for example - manipulated share prices for their own gain.  That was certainly criminal, but I don't know the relvance to this situation.  

Since this is really a board about Hepatitis I would prefer to drop this.  I only posted becuase I thought that the company was being unfairly and illogically maligned.

[mremeet]

I won't belabor this subject much further, other than responding to a few of your comments:

"My post above wasn't concerned at all with the fact that individuals unconnected with a company will try and manipulate prices of stocks by posting accurate and inaccurate information on boards. No question about that, but it wasn't my point."

But it DOES tie into your point, can you not see that? Lets say hypothetically there was a CEO at a major corporation (not unlike Vertex) that had an up and coming product that was being researched and might make that company a lot of money. But lets say that CEO paid someone to go online and provide overly positive information about his product to falsely make it appear better than it really was. Now, compare that scenario to some outside stock trader who does the exact same thing - trolling on internet forums and talking up a stock they want to "pump and dump". After visualizing both scenarios in your mind, please explain to me how these two processes would look or effectively be any different? How could you tell the difference?? Point being of course, you CAN'T. And that's PRECISELY why it ties into your overly narrowly focused "point". (and is why I brought it up)

"People had posted on this thread and others about "Vertex plants" and "Vertex spys". I was reacting to that. I said , "There is absolutely no logical reason for Vertex to try and manipulate the stock price by having someone post on this board." And I posted clear reasons as to why. Specifically, the share price will have a very firm value on it after the scientific meeting this summer and that any effect of pumping on a board would be temporary and of no value to the company."

Precisely - it would be of no value to "the company". But it absolutely could have value to an individual or a small group of individuals within that company, or with detailed knowledge of same. That's why Lang and Skilling were referenced and are relevent. They falsely manipulated accounting information to make their company seem more profitable than it really was - which certainly included reporting their cooked books to investors online. So they're perfect examples where this precise thing has already happened (and there are many, many more examples, believe me). Your logic fails to account for this possible scenario, and you only account for what's at stake for "the company", as if it's some sort of pristine monolithic entity where these types of selfish/individualistic shenanigans never occur, as they commonly do in the real world. Well, unfortunately not only can they happen, they DO happen.

In other words, what you fail to account for is the possibility that someone(s) within a corporation could/would internally manipulate their own stock price. And the reason you state they wouldn't is because they would get their just desserts in the end anyway (in this case at the required unveiling of the long term telaprevir data). Any short term gains realized through deception would be wiped out by the reality of the long term data release (if it wasn't very good). That's your "point" - but, again what your point fails to account for is the possibility that high ranking individuals within a company can and DO sometimes internally manipulate stock prices for their own selfish benefit (at the explicit expense of "the company" and its shareholders as a whole). For this reason, the argument that "it's totally illogical" is in itself illogical.

As far as vertex "plants" and "spies" you mention and the unfair malignment to Vertex as a consequence of those statements: who outright claimed there was a plant or spy here? Certainly not me, and I don't recall any posts where anyone here outright accused anyone else of being a plant or spy. There was some vague speculation and half joking references to that notion by several people in the past (including myself). But to my knowledge no one has seriously asserted that here (nor professes to believe same), certainly not that I've seen anyway. And if someone has made that accusation, can you please specify (a) who it is and then (b) provide the verbatim quote(s) (in full context) where they made such an outright accusation? (with links?) I try to follow most of the Vertex threads, and to my knowledge no one has made that clear assertion yet.

[3txsofar]

"poetic_wax wrote on the "Vertex - what about the data from the 12 weekers?" thread - "I've seen plenty of stock pumping being done on hep boards by Vertex plants."

On this same thread above, Willows posted in part - "Vertex or whoever may want to pay someone to post on this board day after day, needs to find a better way to live a life.'

So, there have been accusations against the company.

There is a huge difference between a company  organizing chat room comments and unconnected individuals doing it.  In the first case the company is responsible and guilty and that is exactly what I was responding to.  

I am certainly aware that indivduals can "pump" on chat rooms.  In my reply on 3/10 to poetic_wax, I wrote in part, "On the other hand, it is certainly possible for traders who have no connection to Vertex to post in an attempt to inflate or deflate the share price depending on whether they are short or long. Caveat emptor!"

Your point about individuals in a company engaging in criminal behavior - for example Skilling and Lay - is certainly valid in general, but completely irrelevant to this situation unless you have some information about specific behaviors you want to bring up. If not, it is just a wild implied accusation.

[Kalio1]

To me it makes no sense at all for Vertex to be involved in any such shenanigans. The risks far outweigh any possible benefit. I can't see any benefit at all for them.

[jmjm530]

I often felt like a "plant" (a vegetable is a plant right?) on treatment. Does that count?

[APKhaos]

I agree. As the person being accused here, I'm dead sick of this rubbish.

[APKhaos]

From you last post, " If not, it is just a wild implied accusation."

The wild implied accusation is his specialty.

[mremeet]

I'll give it one more go before laying down my pen on this silliness. Lets go back to your original statement on this thread:

"There is absolutely no logical reason for Vertex to try and manipulate the stock price by having someone post on this board."

Speaking *hypothetically*, there is a possible "logical" reason for someone internally to attempt to criminally manipulate stock prices. There's also a logical reason for an unscrupulous outside stock trader to do the same thing externally (which to us here would appear the exact same way). Two completely possible scenarios, by two separate entities - nothing "illogical" or "impossible" about it. And I've already explained in great detail how this can and does happen in all sorts of companies (and continues to happen today). You seem to reasonably acknowledge this fact in your later posts, and yet quizzically persistently dismiss even the mere possibility that it could ever happen at Vertex. And remember, simply discussing a possible (with an emphasis on POSSIBLE) hypothetical (with an emphasis on HYPOTHETICAL) scenario like this is absolutely, positively NOT the same thing as outright accusing Vertex of engaging in such illegal behavior. And since this does happen elsewhere in the corporate world, it is merely POSSIBLE that it could happen at vertex too. And once again for extreme clarity, simply saying something is possible, is absolutely-positively NOT the same thing as asserting that it's actually happening (at Vertex in this case).

"Your point about individuals in a company engaging in criminal behavior - for example Skilling and Lay - is certainly valid in general, but completely irrelevant to this situation unless you have some information about specific behaviors you want to bring up. If not, it is just a wild implied accusation."

The criminal behavior of Skilling and Lay is NOT completely irrelevant to the hypothetical situation I described above. And to bring them up as a real world example of how this kind of thing can and does happen most certainly does NOT mean I'm making a "wild implied accusation" against Vertex. Nor am I required to provide "proof" of Vertex's wrongdoing in order to be at liberty to even discuss the mere possibility of such a thing. If you don't understand why that is, then I suggest you slowly re-read the posts above and think about it.

"Everyone knows that they will be presenting critical data that has been thorough vetted at scientific meetings this summer. Those presentations will directly affect the stock price. Vertex certainly knows that. Any deceptive posting on a chat board might affect the stock price, but only until the meetings in the summer. So, why would Vertex do it? They will not be helped by share price fluctuations between now and the summer. And if they did it and were caught the ramifications would be catastrophic for them."

I think I understand now why you don't understand how this could even possibly happen. I'll try and explain it as best I can for you. What happens is that frequently in large corporations the upper level management receives payment or incentives in the form of company shares (and even ordinary lower level employess are also given incentives in stock). CEO's salaries are often mostly paid in stocks and stock options (incentives tied to their performance within the company), sometimes amounting to even hundreds of millions of dollars (depending on what current stock price is). These CEO's (and their managerial bretheren) can also buy up additional company stock holdings using their "own" money to further bolster their stake in the company. Once this occurs, the stage is set for human weakness to be sorely tested, and here's how it sometimes plays out:

The upper level management guys/gals with huge stakes in the company's stock price decide they want more and more money for themselves. Especially as time goes by and they see their millions ebb up and down with the market price, striking fear in their hearts they may lose many of their millions if their company's performance is seen as anything less than stellar at all times. This is called GREED, and all human beings are susceptible to it on some level, and in some way. The circumstances just have to be right for it to occur. So please don't dismiss human greed as "impossible" or "completely illogical", because biologically and evolutionarily speaking, greed is very logical (that's why it exists).

So what happens is these fine folks at the top start to really obsess over losing their multi-millionaire (or even billionaire) status. Especially if they see trouble within the company internally (often due to their bloated salaries and incompetent management) that the outside world hasn't caught on to yet. This can result in all kinds of deception, which might include accounting fraud, false estimates of growth, or even exaggerated performance of a key patented product they're developing and have nearly all of their eggs in a basket for (hint hint). But its final outcome is always associated with the concealment of a loss of company profits, and/or the potential loss of future profits. If stockholders see the company as not profitable, they'll dump the stock. If the stock gets dumped, the value of the CEO's portfolio will plummet, possibly making him worth a paltry $20 million instead of his "deserved" $300 million.

So what to do? Well, one thing to do is to make sure you keep "putting out the good news" (hint hint). This helps to keep the stock price way up there, and it could allow you to buy even more stock before putting out even more good news. Before you know it, you have a huge and very wealthy portfolio of company stock. But of course on some level, some how, no matter how blinded these people become with greed, arrogance and avarice, they realize this game has to come to an end sooner or later. Realizing this, there's only one thing to do - liquidate your holdings BEFORE the gig is up. That way after all the people on the outside (i.e. all of us 401K chumps) finally learn of the reality of how unprofitable the business actually is and starts dumping their stock, the CEO types will already be in the clear. They bought (or were given) low, and sold at the top, thereby siphoning off millions upon millions of $$$ in profits and locking them into a cash account which will NOT go down in value after the stock plummets.

So when you so sincerely and emphatically ask above about how and why anyone would put out false information because the stock price would ultimately/eventually correct for any false information anyway - well this is exactly how and why some rogue corporate a-hole(s) within a company could do just that very thing. It's not impossible and it's not illogical and there are certainly many, many real world examples of this happening all the time.

And as far as the argument that "it doesn't make sense" (and again it's therefore impossible or illogical etc etc) because doing something like this would be highly illegal, and there would be hell to pay if they got caught: well, yes, it is illegal and the fact that it is illegal more often than not will keep educated and reasonably ethical people from doing such a thing. But I can assure you it won't keep everyone from doing it. Just because ordinary people like me and you and kalio are ethically minded, god fearin' and law abiding citizens with a few scruples to rub together, that most certainly doesn't mean that some greed crazed a-hole won't try and pull a fast one. It happens all the time, all around the world and has been happening since human beings came into existence. Crime happens. Lies happen. People do bad things. Sometimes they think they can get away with it. Sometimes they don't get away with it. Sometimes they do get away with it. Sometimes Johnny will shoot Billy in the face for $12. Sometimes Jane will prostitute herself for a hit of crack. And sometimes Ken Lay will lie to his shareholders because he wants a 6th mansion in the Riviera. That's just how it is, whether it seems "logical" or rational or ethical or sensible to me or you or anyone else is completely besides the point.

Lastly, one more time this is in no way an indictment against vertex or suggestion that vertex has committed this sort of crime. It's a discussion that has meandered into the hypothetical realm of what's "possible" and "logical" regarding both internal corporate and external individual criminal behavior when it comes to falsely influencing stock prices.

Best wishes to you, hopefully no hard feelings.

[Willy50]

I'd work for a lot less.    : )

The EASL will contain 6 discussions and abstracts on Telaprevir in Barcelona April 11-15 .  I think much of the theory and speculation will become moot very soon.  Indeed, as the topics and titles of the abstracts become known you find that the stock will move before the conference convenes.

Buckle up; this could be a wild ride.

......by the way.....APKhaos; congrats.  : )


Willy

[3txsofar]

I try to be brief, so let me try and close this, by simply quoting from your last post -

"Lastly, one more time this is in no way an indictment against vertex or suggestion that vertex has committed this sort of crime."