relapse

[ellenc670]

If you are going to relapse, how soon after the completion of tx would you relapse? Does anyone know?

[willbb]

I linked the   "Peignoux" data in my post above.  There was no mention of "certainties" as there never is in accumulated data,however the figures I mentioned above are what the studies show
Slide 15 to 19 on that link  show the graphs .

Will

[curiouslady1]

So are you saying willbb, that if an individual is UND at the 4 week post EOT PCR test then it is 96% certain they are cured?  If not, please clarify.  Thanks.

[willbb]

You may want to look at these graphs if interested (the13th 14th and 15th slide)
. For someone who is going to relapse ,it seems virus will increase very soon after EOT,however as cando mentions it is not usually DET. until somewhere between the 4th and 12th week
A PCR test is considered valid of SVR to a 96% chance of predictability at 4 weeks post  and 99.7 % at 12 weeks post

Will

.http://www.ihlpress.com/pdf%20files/hepdart09_presentations/oral_ii/12_martinotHEPDART%20PC.pdf

[can-do-man]

SVR-12: SVR-12 means that there is no hepatitis C virus detectable in the blood 12 weeks after completion of HCV treatment. Although it has not been prospectively validated, many experts agree that relapse (meaning the emergence of detectable hepatitis C virus in blood after completion of treatment) is most likely to occur within 12 weeks. However, FDA and other regulatory agencies require 24 weeks of post-treatment follow-up before a person is considered to have achieved an SVR.

http://www.thebody.com/content/art46371.html

[curiouslady1]

I am starting to get anxious too tho I have two weeks of dosing left.  Because I have little or no symptoms I would just as soon stay on the drugs for awhile longer.  But of course it won't happen that way.  Anyway, if it is true that SVR 12 is all you need to stay free of the virus, then why do they not declare you cured until SVR 24?

[sandysf]

I think some of this is misleading, first studies indicated that the 3 month post is 100% accurate in predicting SVR.

"A Follow-up Week 12 Viral Count Is Useful in Predicting SVR and Is 100% Accurate in Patients without Cirrhosis"

http://www.hivandhepatitis.com/2007icr/ddw/docs/060107_a.html

"The authors conclude, 'A follow-up week 12 viral count is useful in predicting attainment of SVR and is 100% accurate in patients without cirrhosis. In this sample, 9% of patients with cirrhosis were misclassified by the follow-up week 12 viral count.'

In addition, they write, 'Use of an earlier viral count in patients without cirrhosis would allow earlier retreatment for those with relapse and allow earlier confirmation of successful treatment.'”

So UND 3 months post gives us a very good idea if we are SVR or not.

Secondly, for those who say they relapsed at 3 months or 2 months or 6 months, I would guess it is because that was their first VL test after completing tx and so they don't know if the virus actually came back at 2 weeks post because they didn't have a VL then.  So do we have studies that indicate how quickly the virus actually comes back versus when we "find out" it came back?

I go for my 3.5 week VL post tx on tuesday and I am a bit anxious obviously!  

[adamben101]

It's widely accepted that the 3 month post-tx test is 90% or more accurate that you will achieve SVR if it shows UND.  It is also accepted that if you are UND at 6 months post-tx, you are SVR and any future tests which show the virus returned would be due to re-infection, not from your previous infection.  Hope that helps.

[micheall]

I did 2 drug tx last year,relapsed on 1st month of follow up after 9 months of undetected on 1st tx.On 2nd tx after 6 months r+r and now taking Incivek tx.I am undetected on 1st blood work.Things look good for me.I am type 1a.

[n2cats15]

I was treated in 2004 with 52 weeks of peg and riba,  I ckeared between the 12th and 18th week, remained clear through the 52nd week.  At the 3 month ost treatment check the Hep c virus returned.  

I am currently doing triple treatment

[working dog]

i think a lot of us that got on the incivek triple are keeping their fingers crossed...lots are going on 2 months post....i'm getting a vl done next week at about 10 weeks post tx of 19+ weeks total...so i'm nervous....billy

[can-do-man]

For the most part its between 4 and 12 weeks post treatment. It your still und at 3 months post the odds are in your favor of becoming SVR..... For me i relapsed the first time at 4 weeks post...........Good luck