vrtx stock is up alot this week

The stock is up a lot.  I wonder if someone knows something about the europe trials that the rest of us don't.  They are holding the info close to the vest.

                                                Ron

[couldn't think of a nickname]

Funny, I have been following the technicals on that stock as well as 14 other biotechs (at least charts I looked at the other day).
The 2 strongest charts are AMLN, and VRTX. Many didn't look good at all. HGSI is improving.

I don't think they know anything yet. The stock is trending well and trading in its channel it has been in the last several months.

It is my opinion that a strong chart going into news usually means good news. The exception would be some who "buy the rumor, sell the fact".
I believe expectations are high (which is also dangerous) because of the data. VRTX was smart in how they are doing their trials. The first 1b was a mono, the second one was combo. Suppose they did the combo first, and they get (for example) 5.5 logs in 2 weeks. Then, months later, the mono data comes out and the show the 4.4 logs that it did get. Perception might be that the numbers weren't as good, even though for monotherapy, it is eye popping---perception becomes reality. It is better to build on data, which doing it the way they have, they can.

I think I can give 4 good examples of the charts leading the news event.

1. RIGL had an ugly double top, and was weak when their allergic rhinitis trial failed. Stock fell 60+% in 1 day.

2. VPHM showed weakness using Elliott Wave, a series of 1's and 2's down, where wave 3 crashed the stock. HCV data come out bad, and coincided with that 3rd wave. News was released, stock plummets.

3. VRTX bottoms last April around 8ish, moves up into May, and is around 11 when good data comes out.

4. Nat. Gas futures (yes, I follow that too). Daily chart shows a double top, hourly chart shows a head and shoulder top, with the commodity falling going into inventory data today. Draw down is less than expected, neckline of H&S top is broken, Nat Gas is down over $1, and now targets 10.75 ish.
Yesterday volume was good on VRTX, considering the seasonals. I am a little nervous about what the next set of data will show, and how the stock will react. It has already tripled this year.

Today, it is lighter than I would like. The best thing that did happen was breaking 28, as its first 2 attempts failed, so today negates that so far.

Just one man's opinion. Please, don't anyone construe this as advice, it is not.

[johnisme]

Maybe thoughts of a buyout by merck?

Stay well.........John

[couldn't think of a nickname]

MRK has made comments about look for potential targets, and they are partnering with them on a promising cancer compound (aurora kinase inhibitor), some investors may speculate on that, but I hope not. MRK needs a pipeline, no doubt, and Boger did come from there, but the issue would be if they still have a valid poison pill. I don't know. Honestly, I don't usually think in those terms for stocks, but others do. I am not expecting one anyway.

Talk about perception being in the eye of the beholder, sometimes good news isn't good enough, and stocks fall anyway, just like when bad news isn't as bad as expected so things rise. I think it is best to be careful on the examples I gave above, nothing is perfect, and expectations do play a role.

[vegas777]

Hi there, hope you're well today!

Regarding Vertex - It has been a hot topic at the Unity forum and 3 or 4 of the "gurus" there seem to think it won't show good results with the virus resistance problem, and also think the money will run out before trials are over...The same "gurus" think the PI that will prevail will be the one Sherring has on trial...

I have no clue about any of this stuff it is totally over my head but I am hoping one of those puppies proves to be good...

I wish you were involved in some of those discussions, you have such knowledge and could probably answer a lot of their uncertainties...

Had my blood draw yesterday, won't get results till January 3rd though!

[Upbeat]

The Combo trial in Europe was only for 14 days.  Those 14 days have come and gone. Someome must know something by now. I don't believe they have extended the trial like with nm-283. I can't amagine that they are still are digesting the data.  

                                                      Ron

[couldn't think of a nickname]

Upbeat: It actually took longer to get all of the results from the last trial. I also am not sure what they are allowed to see, and when. Since they announced they would talk about the data in very early 1q 2006, they must know how long it takes to go through it thouroughly. If they do not, it leaves possible error out there.

Veggie: Hope you are well. I wouldn't be surprised if those gurus were for some reason partial to SGP. THEY are the ones that have resistance as a bigger issue, they couldn't get vl down nearly as fast. And, those guys ignore the fact that at TID, there WAS NO RESISTANCE. In fact, the resistance study VRTX did, hasn't been done by anyone else as far as I know. Why would they ONLY be concerned about that issue from the VRTX side? VRTX brought it up, but it didn't happen at TID, and that data showed that it weakened those strains anyway. Oh well.

As for running out of cash, they had 400 mil. in the bank, but believe me, if they need cash, they will get it. They are partnered with MRK for 1 drug, and GSK for 1 in phase 2, and another they just announced a deal to co-promote. And they should realize that there would be plenty of people lined up to get a piece of that pie if they needed it. The did an offering last year of about 12 mil. shares at about $13 and it got snapped up quickly. The higher price, the less you have to issue to get more money. At near 29 now, 5.4 mil would get the same results.

Funny, but so far, it has shown BETTER results than SGP, which might need to do another phase 1b to find a more optimal dose. SGP's will likely get approved too, but which is better? Early data favors VRTX. I am glad I am not at that board, I wouldn't want to get into it there.

[vegas777]

is SPG sherring?

[vegas777]

obviously I am dyslexic  hehe  SGP

[couldn't think of a nickname]

Yes, It is faster than typing out Schering, and they have so many numbers after their compound, I pulled an Albert Einstein and chose not to memorize it LOL (I once heard a story about Einstein where he said he didn't waste time memorizing his phone number, as he wouldn't need to call it, or something like that).

[vegas777]

hehehe you're cute...