what % of people have a viral breakthrough after the 4 week

what % of people have a viral breakthrough after the 4 week post tx mark? Does anyone know?
pj

[jmjm530]

First, the terminology. If you are UND during treatment and detectible post treatment it's not called a viral breakthrough it's called a "relapse". Viral breakthrough is when the virus goes from UND to detectible while on the treatment drugs or otherwise sharply rises on the tx drugs.
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As to the % of people that have *relapse* after the 4 week post tx mark which I'm assuming you meant...

It depends to a large part on genotype, viral response and in some cases pre-treatment predictors, so the following is very general. For one example a geno 1 with an RVR and UND throughout tx might have closer to an 80-90% chance of SVR.

I won't do the math to your specific question but this should give you an idea:

In general geno 2 and 3's have around an 80% chance of SVR and an UND on the week 4 post tx test correlates around 90% with SVR.

Geno 1's have around a 40-50% chance of SVR and and an UND on the week 4 post tx test correlates around 90% with SVR.

As stated, if you have had UND viral load tests throughout treatment and especially if you had a sensitive end of treatment test then a positive after 4 weeks post would be considered relapse and not viral  breakthrough.

[lapis]

Thanks for posting this, and Jim, thanks for your answer.  This is important to me now as I await my 4 wk post EOT PCR result.  Good to know, if I am UND at wk 4 post tx I have a 90% chance of SVR, whooo-hooo!  Here's hoping...

[Isobella]

Lapis:  I'm glad you saw this.  This thread is the one I was trying to quote yesterday
           without my computer in front of me.  

Thanks, Jim for the information =)

[ladylucy1]

Your post on the pct success is encouraging. I am waiting for an answer on my financial aid from Roche for the Peg. I kind of feel like an idiot because I feel fine, but my GI says I NEED the treatment. It turns out that I cant afford it,  I'm gonna feel miserable during the treatment, and chances are, I wont even be the same person after I'm done. I wont fit my clothes, be depressed, lose my hair, wont be able to work full time...I'm a geno 2. My viral loan is between 5-6 million from the last blood test.  So if I get to know after four shots whether I'm doing the right thing...