My odds?

I have two hepatologists....one says I have 50% chance, other says 70% chance of SVR.
Im 2/2 , had highest VL of anyone here 75 Million. Mild peri-portal fibrosis- Iron stain negative.
Treated 55 week with Pegasys  and 1200mg Riba.
Cleared at week 7.

One month post PCR UND.
Three month PCR-UND.

What is your view??
Thank you :}}}
AM going the week of June 8th for my 6th month post.
I finished tx 12-12-08
Yes Im feeling like a full fledge chicken!

[charm27]

Im a 1A- Again thanks

[charm27]

I know what ever will be will be, I know that its already written in stone.
I also know  woke up this morning on the WRONG SIDE of the bed!
And the anticipation is driving me bananas! I know lif eis in Gods hands....
Im just anxiety ridden from the whole trip.
And my memory is not good so that is why I have three posts here...
I can only think in fragments!
OK I believe Im done for now!!

[Andiamo1]

I don't know the specific odd for you, but I do know that the probability for all 1A is 50% when treating for 48 weeks.  You responded very well and treated for 48 weeks beyond undetectable, so your odds are much better than 50%.

Good luck to you.  Believe me, I know full well the anxiety of waiting for the blood test results!  I think you will reach SVR.  Isn't the recommended duration 36 weeks beyond undetectable?  You went 9 weeks beyond that,so your odds should be great.

Eric

[charm27]

Thank you for your support and opinion greatly appreciated.
I truly cant believe I am as anxious as I am....so not me.

I hope you are well and enjoying SVR!!
Have a good holiday weekend.

Im going to go to bed again and see if I can wake up on a better side than I did!!

:}}}}}}}}}}

[Andiamo1]

Well, I can't even add today - LOL.  You went 12 weeks beyond undetectable.

[Isobella]

I can't beat the advice from Eric....but I just wanted to give you a (((((HUG))))).  

Hang in there, chickie......for what it's worth, I say you are well on your way to enjoying livelong SVR =)

Off to find my chicken suit......

[charm27]

Thanks! Im going to downgrade my suit to Chicken Little so you can have my yellow chicken suit if needed!

Wish you well friend.
Thanks for it all.
The heat is on...NEVER did I think I would react like this.
But it is what it is!
Have a good weekend!

Health & Peace
Chicken Little

[apache1]

UND 12 wk post eot = 100% svr in many studies... unless cirrhotic.

You are pretty much home free, unofficially SVR

http://www.medhelp.org/posts/Hepatitis-C/Just-finished-TX--12wk-post-tx-UND-maybe-as-good-as-24wk-to-predict-SVR-/show/756284?personal_page_id=213737&post_id=post_3967065

apache

[meakea]

Charm, I will be doing the same thing you are doing when my time comes for my 6 mo post tx results.  Hang in there and start practicing your pretty girl scream for when you hear the UND news that comes from your June 8th test.  :)

[portann]

Charm, re: chances of SVR for 1A's, according to what I've read here and based on posters' cited studies:

1) 50% going into tx

2) 60 - 70% if UND at 12 weeks during tx

3) 90% at 4 week post PCR, unless stage four

4) 100% at 12 week post PCR, unless stage four

5) 24 weeks post PCR, you tell me

I can't vouch for this info but that's how I'm basing my own expectations.

Scary waiting even when if there's nothing to fear!

Gotta run, sorry this is so brief....

[Rockerforlife]

The waiting is the hardest part....who sings taht song....yep...your odds are way up...YOU ARE SVR.

[Rockerforlife]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLCJEYLIBQY

[jmjm530]

One month post PCR UND.
Three month PCR-UND.
-------
You already are SVR for all practical purposes, as a 3 month post treatment UND correlates 100% with the 6 month. I have no idea why your doctors are saying otherwise unless there is some miscommunication between either you and them or you and us. So congratulations, you're cured!

[jmjm530]

Just show you know, a very high pre-tx viral load like yours (75 million) is no more difficult to treat than a viral load of let's say 1 million. Are you sure these are "herpetologists" and not GI's? Again, must be some form of miscomunication somewhere.

[jmjm530]

That's "hepatologists", not as written above

[jmjm530]

Andiamo: I don't know the specific odd for you, but I do know that the probability for all 1A is 50% when treating for 48 weeks.  You responded very well and treated for 48 weeks beyond undetectable, so your odds are much better than 50%.
---------------
Just so you don't get confused by Andiamo's statement above, I'm almost positive he's referring to your *pre-treatment* odds. All that gets by viral response once treatment begins and even viral response gets trumped by UND post treatment PCRs. So while your odds might have been around 50% to start, they jumped to 70-80% when you became UND at week 7 and then jumped to around 90% when you were UND at 4 weeks post tx. At 3 months post tx, they jumped to 100% , as stated earlier. Maybe the odds you were referring to by the two hepatoligsts were &pre-treatment* odds -- either that or they didn't bother to look at your chart to see you've finished and are now testing UND. I've seen crazier things happen here.

[charm27]

Jim- Thank you for your knowledge! Cured its sounds like a lotto ticket...Im hoping for the best! Thank you for your support,

Rocker- The song was great-haventhard that in long time-  Thank you for your support!

All of you- I just needed a jolt of positivity today and you all gave it to me as usual.

Charm
Im no good at waiting
Going for a long walk to walk off my awful morning!
Again thanks!

[charm27]

Yes they are both hepatologists howvever one of them goes by the old practice of waiting 1 yaer to say the word SVR! He's very negative........

And my other hepatologist is with the current standards....

[jdwithhcv]

I believe you are going to get it.  I have no science to add what has already been posted here, just I BELIEVE!!!  Got the red shoes warmed up and ready for happy dancing in your honor.

jd

[jmjm530]

I can tell from you post that you want to believe us but perhaps don't. Why don't you just call your doctors after the weekend to confirm and make sure they understand you tested UND 3 months post treatment.  I'm sure there was simply a mistake in communication, assuming that they are actually hepatoloigsts and not GI's. Absolutely NO WAY  two hepatoligsts would peg your odds at 50 and 70% with a 3 month post tx UND -- unless again, there is something being miscommunicated here.

[jmjm530]

"A Follow-up Week 12 Viral Count Is Useful in Predicting SVR and Is 100% Accurate in Patients without Cirrhosis "

http://www.hivandhepatitis.com/2007icr/ddw/docs/060107_a.html

[jmjm530]

Yes they are both hepatologists howvever one of them goes by the old practice of waiting 1 yaer to say the word SVR! He's very negative........
-----
Trust me, something is wrong with both of these jokers. I could understand them not wanting to take the studies at face value and giving you a 90-95% chance of SVR being UND at week 12, but saying you have a "50%" chance is just about malpractice. If this is how they operate, you might look for other docs in the future.

-- Jim

[Isobella]

This thread has some great information.  I'm gonna copy it because I'll be having my 6month post PCR on December 24th......I am sure I will be just as nervous as you are now, Charm.

Warming up the shoes and practicing the girly scream......

[Rockerforlife]

ISSY IS DOING THE IZZY SHUFFLE

[Andiamo1]

You are correct; I must have been asleep when I posted and missed the 12 week undetectable statement.  I was referring to the pre treatment probability.  I agree with your odds.

[GSDgirl]

I can so totally relate waiting for that 6 month PCR.  I was a nervous wreck.  I don't know a lot about the scientific end of things BUT I really believe that jmjm knows his stuff  LOL and I gotta go with his odds.  I hope you have your eye on a nice new pair of red shoes.

Denise

[Isobella]

We can all practice together.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYZrJIaiuC4

Charm's Happy Dance will be the best yet =)

[Rockerforlife]

WOW...

[Rockerforlife]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n52CzPvwPQ0

[helpnikki]

Hoping and Hoppin for you... I'll be a bunny and dance with you chicken lil...

[GoofyDad]

Just to confirm what Jim says - for at least a couple years it's been pretty accepted that 3 mos post clear and it's all over but the shouting. My recollection is there was a 1% chance or so of a relapse between  mos and 6 mos. Even with early cirrhosis, I wasn't too excited about the 6 mos test, once I had a sensitive 1 mo and 3 mos under my belt. And I'm not sure the sensitivity matters much in this context.

Do yourself a favor Charm and accept that you're almost certainly in the promise land.    

[charm27]

Thank you all for the facts.....and all the hope!
I will do my self a favor and accept Im almost there......

Its just hard for me to believe that Ive had this monkey on my back for  longer than Ive had anything! Its been a heavy weight for me to carry for so long!

Thanks for all your knowledge and your well wishes...

Charm

[Rockerforlife]

1% = 1 OUT OF A THOUSAND....with odds like this you seel the house and buy the the stock

[sunshine585]

With everything I've read, I agree with Jim. So get your chicken suit ready...do you wear the red shoes with that,lol.
By the way, I've been looking at your pics through my own tx, and my hairloss was just like yours! I had all those dry wisps too. It's mostly come back, in fact I have a new crop, standing on end and waving in the breeze.

[GreatBird]

1% is one in a hundred.

[Rockerforlife]

Opps..you are correct...still...not bad odds...i would still bet the farm on those odds...and im thinkn of taking a college course on this TX......LOL....i just may have a hard time

[newleaf09]

I think your odds are pretty good.  You've remained UD through the first EOT PCR's, you cleared before 8 weeks, even though you hadan outrageously high VL.  You were very responsive to the antivirals.

Portann's post about low odds for SVR for stage 4 (which wonderfully, you are not...I'll expect you to regress back to at least 1 if not 0) got me doing a lit review.  I would say that when a study says low odds for cirrhosis, it does not really say low for SVR.  It really means low for response to interferon due to the damage.  If we respond well to interferon by claring early, I believe it takes cirrhosis out of the SVR picture.

[IAmTheWalrus]

Even for slow responders it is recommended to do 48 weeks after UND. You've done that even though you were not a slow responder, you were nearly an RVR.

Just get the red shoes out and get ready to dance already! Rocker's math is faulty, but he's right about the prognosis.

Happy dancing,
Brent

[lalapple]

wow cleared week 7?!!  that's pretty fast with 75mil, i agree with Walrus, happy dancing!

[sunqueen]

It's all good charm.

:)

[CMcH]

I bet you have it Charm, SVR is within your reach. DIng **** the dragons dead!
Wishing you the best

[charm27]

Thank you all for all this encourgement and support.
Im going any day now for my 6 month PCR- sometime this week when I wake up in the morning iand the mood to do so.

I will let you all know as soon as I hear the news........


Charm

[charm27]

When I wake up in the morning and am in the mood to go for my PCR.


Since I started tx in 07 and finished in 08 I have not been able to type!!

[GoofyDad]

Hoping to hear you woke up "In the mood" very soon....do keep us posted.

[charm27]

Thanks! I went for my PCR this morning!
Will keep you all posted.......................

[mikesimon]

Good luck - SVR!
Mike

[GSDgirl]

Good Luck!!!.

Denise

[jacksonblue]

best wishes i am sure news will be great

steve