NyGirl....why do so many 2's and 3's relapse

First let me thank you for responding to my question. I was just wondering if you knew why so many relapse? am I destined to relapse?
Thanks NYgirl

[zazza]

You were UND at week 4.
You are on weight based interferon and ribavirin.
You got around 90% chance of SVR.
It is looking very good for you. Feel confident, continue with treatment, add a couple of more percentages of chance of SVR by going the full 24 weeks.

When a genotype 3 starts treatment, his odds of SVR are around 80%. If UND at week 4, his odds increases towards 90%. If still detectable at week 4, his odds decreases to 50%. You are not in the group that needs to worry about 50% risk of relapse. Enjoy being a rapid viral responder with your great odds at SVR!

About your question about weight dosed medicine:
When a genotype 2 or 3 starts 24 weeks of treatment (not knowing yet if he will be UND at week 4 or not), being on a weight based dose of ribavirin gives him 87% chance at SVR. If instead he was on a lower dose of ribavirin his odds of SVR at the start of treatment would decrease, down to 67% at a dose of 8.4 mg/kg. Your dose of ribavirin is 16.3 mg/kg. Looking very good to me!

[MrsOckert]

Wassup, Girlfriend????  I'm scared to ask.......but.....what's the verdict??  I could go looking thru the archives......tell me your clear.  I reallly really really want you to be clear.

[FlGuy]

And there's Val.  Nice to see you.  I'll remove some of the drama for you.  NYG had a 'suspicious' pcr result, which you may recall.  After a lot of hemming and hawing, she finally when back to do another.  It came back as UND, and it was a pretty sensitive one too.  Don't recall how many weeks post tx the second one was, but probably at leat 12.  So, things be lookin' up for NYG.  The resaon I'm responding to you is because NYG, typically, is on during the day hours, not so much at night.  She can fill you in further.

[MrsOckert]

It's like old home week around here.  Thanks for the info....I got so excited I sucked in my breath and my jaw dropped at the same time.  Not an easy feat.

How are you getting along?  By my calculations you should still be on your 2nd Tx - would you say the sx's are worse this time around?  How are your kids dealing with it?  

I'm not trying to be nosy - but "how are you" is such a catchall phrase these days.  I'm just trying out specific questions to let you know I really care about your answers.

[MrsOckert]

Things are great with Mr. O.  We're just two bookends.  Couldn't be happier.  The girl moved out last week.  Her dad co-signed a car loan and rental application for a house.  So we get to walk around the house naked.  Well, okay...we could if we wanted.  Which we don't.  But we could.  Until next month.  John gets back from visiting his grandparents next month.  Two years of college and then he's off to law school.

Getting closer to a house of no kids.  However, I just can't hardly wait till the grandkids get here.

[nygirl7]

I don't know why to tell you the truth but what I do know is that many of the top doc specialists (like Dr. Ira Jacobson who told me this) said that it seems as if way too many geno 2 and geno 3 are relapsing for the 80%, 90% numbers to be correct.  The day I was at his office he told me he'd just seen two patients - both geno 2 who had relapsed.

Nobody knows if you will or you won't but if you take your meds your chances are MUCH MUCH better still than mine were and so far so good (I am a geno 1A and also a geno 1B).

With everyone on here regardless of their genotype it's still pretty much a crapshoot - the odds can be 100 to 1 that you won't relapse and you still can! Or they can be 100 to 1 that you won't achieve SVR and you will~

There is just so much still unknown about this disease - h opefully in the future they'll break the code and figure it out.

I just know that a few of my closest hepC friends on here who supposedly had the "easy" "lucky" genotypes relapsed - and well with the data that says they had such great numbers.........it makes no sense for them all to have had it happen.

BUT - it just could be that I jinxed them and they got my little black cloud over their heads because they are friends with me.

But they are still nice to me (Ie: see FLGuy above) so it shows what great people they really are!

Good luck SUnny I wish you all of the best.

Remember - you're odds are still pretty darn good so you take the meds all the time at the right time and make them even better :)

[nygirl7]

Hey girl I hope that you come on and see that I wrote you back as soon as I could!  I STILL haven't fixed the home PC (lazy lazy lazy even 5 months after treatment LOL).

I did have a very odd first PCR result and the doc told me it made no sense...to come back in a month and get another one because it just didn't make sense to him or his partner.

So I waited and went back and it definitely came back UND.  That was at about 4 months post.  I'm now 5 months post and just waiting to get that 6 month test on pins and needles.

I know either way though I did all that I could have done so I feel ok whatever happens.

Anyhow - how have you been!  My life has been pretty much the same, it sucks but what can you do except hang in there and continue the fight.

How are you feeling?

Gosh, I'm so glad to see you on here again.

I hope you come back to see that I did write you and I"m just SO GLAD to see you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Debby

[MrsOckert]

Yes, I see you wrote me back (big smile).  Wow, aren't the odds really good at 4 months that you'll still be UND at 6???  It seems like I saw something just the other day about 4 months.  Man, would it not be just the most incredible thing if you were UND????  

I certainly understand not wanting to get your hopes up.  Much better to expect nothing and receive it all than the other way around.  Have you kept up with the gym at work?

I'm feeling good.  Hoping new drugs may come out in the future, but not spending a lot of time dwelling on it.  Just working and well, working.  LOL.

[FlGuy]

Tonight is 34 of 46.  The end is in sight.  Docs have been very aggressive with hgb relief, which makes things tolerable.  Kids keep us hoppin' these days with travel softball and a bunch of other summer activites.  Trying to keep up, but still manage weekend naps.  Although it's an uphill hike, at least it's on a downslope to some extent. Take care Val.  Hope thinks working our for you and Mr. O.

[GoofyDad]

Zazza's numbers look pretty realistic to me. I wouldn't agree that one can get quite that specific in percentages, since it involves aggregating data from a number of studies with slightly different parameters - but that's splitting hairs. As a former GT3 - I looked at this pretty closely myself, and there's nothing that zaazza says that disagrees with what I've read. These numbers are bbased on thousands of cases in controlled environments, published in peer reviewed papers.

If I were in you shoes, and I was once,  I wouldn't give an annecdotal account like whjat NYgirl posted any weight at all in my decision making. I'm sorry NYgirl, but theer's a reason the scientific communtiy does things the way they do, and relying on a infomal recounting of a miniscule sampling of patients just doesn't make sense.

I could be wrong, but I don't recall this board seeing one GT2 or GT3 relapse withe documeneted RVR. For those which an appetite for the annectdotal, maybe that means something.    

NYgirl: "many of the top doc specialists (like Dr. Ira Jacobson who told me this) said that it seems as if way too many geno 2 and geno 3 are relapsing for the 80%, 90% numbers to be correct."

Can you cite one publicly available example of quote from above? Or offer an explanation as to why the 'many top doc specialists'  are being mum on such an important issue? Again, I'm sorry - but IMO this is spreading undeserved anxiety to treating patients.

And one more thing that should be noted - of the GT2 and GT3 relapsers heer, there have been some pretty unusual circumstances, including cirrhosis and thalassmenia - which should be considered by anyone trying to use those cases as guidelines.