vx950 - is there a problem

I don't want to dash any ones hopes including my own but....
From just before the results of the trial came out, the stock on Vertex has gone straight down. Any ideas or am I missing something?

[chcnme]

Hi Sally, I know it's real easy to ... but - I really don't think the fall (at least at this time) should be weighed into the "it's good news" or "bad news".  It's definitely easy to think that this (the price of the shares now compared to what it was pre-press release)  is bad news  (and it might be),  BUT - it went down because of the 9% drop out rate in this trial due to dermatologic and GI problems (and because this 9% drop out rate scares many investors and makes the stock less appealing right now - they don't want to gamble it because of the 9% who had bad sides, but that does not mean that it's all bad news for investors in VX (or for the ones in the trials or those of us waiting).  If this might explain what I mean by that -- I know someone who invests, and they invested in VX last year when it was something like 26 / share.  They are not worried right now - not at all.  Their advisor is not worried, either. In fact, they've spoken about purchasing more NOW because it's cheaper and could climb again - possibly soon (possibly not).  It's all going to depend on the next data release (which I'm not sure when that will be,  but I've heard in a few months.)  It could shoot out the roof at that time or .... fall out the bottom  (let's hope and pray for all of us it's out the ROOF!)  Of the 9% of those who did drop out, 3% of those were "pulled"  (the others were voluntary drop-outs due to bad sides from what I've gathered.)   All we can do is hope it's going to keep going OK in the trials, and - it's kind of hard to tell right now, for sure.  I don't this is the time to say that it's good or bad news due to the share drop, though.  

But anyhow...for what it's worth - that's what I've heard and how I understand it from the investors' view.

I wonder when the BOARDS are going to be open again!  Any news on that? lol

[APKhaos]

Its an traders secret - Buy on the rumor, Sell on the news. Get in early, and cash out at the top.

There was some action driven by other product lines. The press release this month was extremely preliminary - a portion of the cohort, at the end of week 12. The real results wont start to flow until a large chunk of the cohort pass the week 20 unblinding. The very first few are progressing past that point now. My week 20 ended 8 Dec, having started the very first week that drugs were available.

[friole]

When I started tracking Vertex, it was 15.99 a share.  Didn't buy, but the stock price still looks pretty sweet to me.  Also, since Vertex partnered up with a Johnson and Johnson subsidiary, the J&J stock has improved quite a bit.

[Willy50]

I have asked myself this question also.  I also own some stock.  I'm certainly no expert and seem to have a knack for making bad decisions on stock.  Here's a few possibilities;

In general the bio-medical stocks are all soft right now at Christmas.  These type stocks also fell in sympathetic reaction to other drugs that failed at about the same time.

There is often a difference between the value of a stock and how wall street reacts to it.  For the trader that "knows" that the stock will drop due to the results (and in this less than perfect trial result) they are doing the right thing to sell (which in turn causes further stock price drop).  There are other better investments.  That same dynamic also works in reverse; what happens when "good news" breaks?  The stock has also soared in the past and may yet again soon.  The stocks intrinsic value may change little during these booms or busts.

What might signal a change in stock valueZ?  More good news....probably meaning scientific results that can be interpreted as positive.  If you note the day the stock started to drop....a few days before the release of the Dec 13 prelim trial results....then count about 4 more weeks till when the other 100 people on trial will complete their final leg of treatment.  When the results....the complete results are in we'll see the clear rate.....the dropout rate..... and well have an actual result; not a partial one.

Depending on how they figured the 9% dropout rate (was it 9% of the 100 that had completed the trial, or 9% of those that started the trial?)we may see changed outcomes in the percentages.  

What will happen to the stock price if the dropout rate were to drop and the clear rate were to raise?  Of course, and this one is BLEAK..... what would happen to the price if the drop out rate were to raise further still and the clear rate drop further?

I will note that Vertex has an investor conference in very early January about 4 weeks after that December announcement.  It may not come then though..... they may just do a press release.  I'll bet that you start to see the stock price move strongly (in either direction) once the results are made known public (and probably before : )).

I'm not pessimistic about the December results.  Use of rescue drugs could change the outcomes.  When one considers that 3% of control dropped out of TX due to sides from SOC the difference......6% is not so sigificant, simply not ideal.  

If Vertex can demonstrate they can maintain around 90% clear rate and that sides can be managed a bit better...... it still looks fantastic to me.  We won't have long to wait to see the 90 day SVR rates.

best,
Willy