How likely is an infection via asymptomatic?

[someguyaaaa]

I really don't know if you can provide me with the answers I seek, but I should at least try.  It's incredibly hard to find information about asymptomatic shedding, almost everything seems to involve what to do during an infection.  Most of the asymptomatic info I do find is either "don't worry about it" or "you're always likely to be shedding and be contagious, so watch out"

Basically, I just want to know how likely it is to pass on oral hsv1 via asymptomatic shedding.  If somebody is shedding, how likely is one "hello/goodbye/you're cute and I care about you" style kiss to transmit the virus?  From what I can tell, pretty low, right?  Howabout for a make-out session?  Nothing too crazy, no tongue, etc.  Just a bunch of consecutive kisses.

On a related note, if somebody has a sore somewhere, how contagious are the other parts of their lips?  I imagine it would be much more than an asymptomatic outbreak, but nowhere near the level the sore is at?

[feelingundone]

Asymptomatic oral hsv sheds around 10-15% of days. Now this can vary from person to person. Some people shed very often and others almost never. The odds from a good night kiss is very very slim. A make out sesion of course is more risk. But again variables play a role like cracked lips...etc
When someone has a sore they are also shedding on other areas and but the real risk is the cold sore. Over all odds are hard to quantify as the study's really haven't been done. No money in it. So all we can do is go by what we do know.
  Even if we did have all the odds it still really doesn't matter as it's very common and no one can say with any certainty when someone is at risk. Someone can spend a lifetime with a partner that has hsv and never get it. While others may get it after one night.