The chances going into an episode are perhaps 1/1000 or somewhat longer odds. From reading your posts though, you have received oral sex and are looking to determine whether you have been infected or not. HSV1 is the main risk from oral activity.
Do you get oral cold sores? If so then it is highly unlikely that you have contracted HSV1 genitally as well as having it in the oral region. Little point in obtaining a blood test either as it will show positive for HSV1 as it does for 60% of the population.
If you are quite sure you do not have oral HSV1, then a blood test will give you some information regarding your HSV status that you may assume is linked to the genital region.
The odds mentioned above are 'correct' for no sore being present. It varies so much for individuals and circumstances.
'Tingling' is an overused term and causes confusion when considering herpes. There are generally two types.
The first is a tingling or prickly like feeling that precedes and outbreak or is sometimes just an indication of the virus being 'active' just under the skin. These impact a very small area.
The second is rarer and relates to a condition where inferred nerve activity occurs, some believe from their herpes infection. Note that a general tingling in the genital area is typically not related to herpes.
Tingling is not a great analogy as it combines too many different and common feelings.
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