some number I got from internet about HIV test time

[simon_2005]

Dear doc

Sorry I am being annoying. But I thought this may help to others as well if it make sense

I found somewhere from internet the following statics. Can you may give some ideas or suggestions if it is true or maye resaonable

By a standard 3rd genertaion antibody test, a following number is suggested:

anti-body detected one week after the exposure ：22.6%
anti-body detected two weeks after the exposure ：53.775%
anti-body detected three weeks after the exposure ：84.1%;
anti-body detected four weeks after the exposure ：98.4%
anti-body detected five weeks after the exposure ：99.45%
anti-body detected six weeks after the exposure ：99.994%
anti-body detected seven weeks after the exposure ：99.99986%
anti-body detected eight weeks after the exposure ：99.999999979%


I have a very low risk exposure (protected vaginal/oral sex) and tested by a 3rd generation anti-body test kit twice at 4 weeks. Both yield a negative result. According to these number, I conclude myself HIV free. Is that OK?

Sorry again for taking your time, but it will be nice if you make some comment on these numbers, it may help a lot for the people who is suffering from the window period.

[H. Hunter Handsfield, M.D.]

Not having seen the source myself, I can't vouch for those numbers, but they look about right.  Thanks for posting them.  

Yes, you can reliably conclude you didn't acquire HIV from the encounter you are concerned about.  Assume one chance in 20 your partner was infected.  Then assume one chance in 1000 you got infected if she had it.  (Both of these estimates are much higher than reality.)  According to your statistics, 1.6% of infected people will still be infected at 4 weeks despite a negative result.

0.05 x 0.001 x 0.016 = 0.0000008

That's about 1 chance in a million.  Your actual risk is lower still.  Your odds of dying in an auto accident in the next 24 hours are higher than the chance you have HIV.

HHH, MD

[timmytim]

Do you have the URL/source where you got those numbers? I'd be interested to learn more

[simon_2005]

You can easily type two numbers and HIV in google. you will see the link.
However, all of them is not in english. Actually these are believed to from an presetation given by a senior HIV expert in China.

Sorry if it does not help

[hookah]

I couldn't find it and it sounds like you're pulling our leg on this one

[H. Hunter Handsfield, M.D.]

hookah may be on to something.  Nobody has reliable data to the level of precision that the numbers imply after the 4-5 week figures.  Still, the rough percentages may not be far off, whether based on real data or made up by somebody.

HHH, MD

[H. Hunter Handsfield, M.D.]

hookah may be on to something.  Nobody has reliable data to the level of precision that the numbers imply after the 4-5 week figures.  Still, the rough percentages may not be far off, whether based on real data or made up by somebody.  Sorry I didn't pick up on that when I first looked at them.

HHH, MD

[simon_2005]

dear hookah:

These are some data I quote from internet, so I have no idea if it is real or someone make it up. That's exactly why I post it here for the suggestions from doc. Well, it doesn't make sense to tell if these numbers are precisely correct, I just need to know roughly if that is. Cause I just took my 4th weeks test, I need to know the possibility of anti-body detected in 4 weeks is something like 90%, or just 50%, or even less. That makes difference for me. as least emotionly.

In case you need a link, this is one:
http://www.chinaids.org.cn/forum/view.asp?b=1&id=624

from CDC China. It is written in madrain. Enjoy...

:-)

[hookah]

It is probably around 90% at 4-5 weeks, possibly higher, from what I have seen. The precision of that data is laughable. We are talking about estimates here.

[gab5]

I was able to find the information that is referenced in the string.  I did it by going to google and putting in the largest number with HIV as the search term. Chinese language information came up.  Then I clicked on translate and then scrolled down and found the information.  It seems to be from a chinese scientist.