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HIV Risk In Perspective- Why You Should Fully Expect A Negative Result

Jun 13, 2009 12:26AM - 15 comments
Tags:

HIV Transmission

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hiv test

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Hiv Risks

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heterosexual

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vaginal sex

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HIV



Your condom broke. Or, you just forgot to use one in the heat (or drunkenness) of the moment. If this applies to you and you had unprotected sex with a heterosexual partner of unknown status, please read on. If you are reading this, you are probably obsessing over the possibility of having contracted HIV and/or are dreading getting an HIV test. However, it is my aim to teach you that you really have nothing to worry about concerning such an exposure.

First, HIV is a very difficult virus to transmit sexually. Based on a number of studies, the average frequency of transmission is between 1 in 1000-2000 episodes of unprotected vaginal sex, IF the partner is infected, with somewhat higher frequency from male to female. Under certain circumstances, there are other risk factors that may come into play such as viral load, concurrent STDs, etc., that may increase this risk, but for most people the 1 in 1000-2000 statistic applies.

Second, in North America, most heterosexuals do not have HIV.  Unless someone lives in an HIV endemic area such as an inner city, is an immigrant from a country with high HIV prevalence, is bisexual or a partner of a bisexual, or is an injection drug user or commercial sex worker, the prevalence of HIV in people without these risk factors is extremely low- less than 1 in 1000 people. Even in commercial sex workers, the incidence is less than 1 in 100, with most infections in 'street walkers' who use narcotics; the prevalence in high class call girls and escorts is no different than the rest of the population.

A person’s HIV risk is a product of the frequency of transmission for the particular sex act and the odds that the partner was infected. This means that unless your partner had any of the aforementioned risk factors, the chance of getting infected from a single episode of unprotected sex is 1 in a MILLION!

So let’s put 1 in a million (1/1,000,000) in perspective:

Odds of being struck by lightning in a given year: 1/400,000 (1)

Odds of being struck in your lifetime: 1/5000 (1)

Odds of dying in an accident in a given year: 1/ 2,517 (2)

Odds of dying in an accident in your lifetime: 1/ 32 (2)

Odds of dying by assault by firearm in a given year: 1/24,005 (2)

Odds of dying by assault by firearm in your lifetime: 1/309 (2)

Odds of dying from a fire in a building in a given year: 1/113,300 (2)

Odds of dying from a fire in a building in your lifetime: 1/1,456 (2)

Odds of dying from accidental drowning in a given year: 1/82,777 (2)

Odds of dying from accidental drowning in your lifetime: 1/1,064 (2)


As you can see, if you are going to worry about having contracted HIV from a single episode of unprotected sex, don’t forget about accidents, guns, house fires, water, and lightning, as all of these things are much more likely to lead to your demise than HIV!

Medical authorities DO NOT EVEN RECOMMEND TESTING after a single episode of unprotected sex in most situations (3)(4)(5). If you are a heterosexual who has had unprotected sex outside of a mutually monogamous relationship and do not have symptoms, all you need is an annual health screen that includes testing for HIV and common STDs (chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis)- you are far more likely to contract these during unprotected sex than HIV. HIV/STD testing is also advised if you are about to start a long-term sexual relationship with someone, so that you both know your status going into the relationship.

If you are one of the many who will remain concerned about an exposure despite being given the facts that your chance of contracting HIV was close to nil, then by all means test. There is never a downside to getting tested. But you should fully expect a negative result. The odds are overwhelmingly on your side- your negative result is 99.9999% ASSURED before you even walk in the door at the testing clinic!

ALMOST NOBODY gets infected from a single episode of unprotected sex with a partner of unknown status. Almost all sexually acquired HIV cases occur in people with multiple, repeated, unprotected high risk exposures (6)(7). HIV risk is a "numbers game" (8), the more you take a chance, then of course the more likely you are to be infected. If you have had only one or just a few exposures to someone -even if they happened to be HIV positive- the odds would still be in your favor. But as I said, chances are that your partner didn’t even have HIV in the first place, and it is of course impossible to contract it if your partner doesn’t have it.

Do not believe alarmists that will tell you that all unprotected sex is high risk and requires immediate testing. Can someone contract HIV from a single episode of unprotected sex? Absolutely. It has happened before and will happen again. And people have also been hit by lightning or planes crashing into their houses and more will in the future, but that doesn’t mean everyone is at high risk for getting hit every time they hear thunder or a plane flying overhead, or that public health policies should be designed around such rare occurrences.

Think about all the episodes of unprotected sex that occurred in the United States, in just the last week. Now project that out to a full year. We’re talking millions and million of episodes. Do you think the diagnostic testing capacity of the United States could handle such a load if everyone tested after single episodes? Not a chance (9). Would such testing have any measurable effect on the HIV epidemic? Not at all, not when only a handful of people -at most, probably none at all- would be expected to get infected from such low risk exposures (10).

Now if you are reading this and think that I am advocating unprotected sex- you’ve missed the entire point of this article! If someone accidentally puts themselves at higher risk for getting hit by lightning, is telling that person that they were still at relatively low risk an advocation that they repeat their behavior? While people should not worry about an individual lapse in judgment, it is equally important that they learn from their mistakes and not put themselves at risk in the future. Doing so repeatedly will inevitably lead to more HIV anxiety, STDs, unwanted pregnancy, and potentially turn a few moments of pleasure into a significant problem, potentially of life changing importance.

The bottom line: there is no need to punish yourself with worry over a single lapse in judgment or a condom break accident. Your course of action should be:

1. Take steps to commit to using condoms consistently in the future, before any penetration has occurred and with plenty of lube to minimize the chance of breakage- do so and you will have nothing to worry about. Keep them handy so that next time you are in a situation when you may need them you are prepared. You are ultimately responsible for your own health and well being.
  
2. Get regular HIV and STD tests every 1-2 years, fully expecting negative results. If you are still concerned about an individual exposure that is driving you crazy with paranoia and anxiety, then you need to get tested for your own psychological well being. But don’t sweat it. Your result will be negative.

J.


References

(1) National Weather Service- Lightning Safety Medical Information
http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/medical.htm

(2) National Safety Council- Odds of Dying
http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx

(3) Handsfield, HH. Medhelp HIV Expert Forum- Thread 256477 http://www.medhelp.org/posts/HIV-Prevention/Unique-Question-About-my-Risks/show/256477

(4) Branson, BM, Handsfield, HH, Lampe, MA,  Janssen, RS, Taylor, AW,  Lyss, SB, and Clark, JE. Center for Disease Control- Revised Recommendations for HIV Testing of Adults, Adolescents, and Pregnant Women in Health-Care Settings
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5514a1.htm

(5) Gallenberg, M, et. Al. Mayo Clinic- Sexually Transmitted Diseases
http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/std-testing/ID00047

(6) Handsfield, HH. Medhelp HIV Expert Forum- Thread 648073 http://www.medhelp.org/posts/STDs/Broken-Condom-Encounter-in-Costa-Rica/show/648073

(7) Handsfield, HH. Safe Sex- Preventing HIV and STD http://knol.google.com/k/h-hunter-handsfield-md/safe-sex/nAi5F17X/WdH0tg?domain=knol.google.com&locale=en#

(8) Hook, EW. Medhelp HIV Expert Forum- Thread 957549 http://www.medhelp.org/posts/HIV-Prevention/Bad-decision-Need-reassurance-Dr-H-/show/957549

(9) Handsfield, HH. Medhelp HIV Expert Forum- Thread 288806 http://www.medhelp.org/posts/HIV-Prevention/Symptoms-and-Risk/show/288806

(10) Handsfield, HH. Medhelp HIV Expert Forum- Thread 467613 http://www.medhelp.org/posts/HIV-Prevention/DO-I-NEED-TO-WORRY/show/467613


Comments
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by onemansstand, Jun 14, 2009 10:47PM
I needed to see this. Thank you for this article. I'm probably just having a fever from staying up 24 hours on the regular playing online poker or caught something in the casino rather than HIV. I'll get tested anyway.... scary as it is but I feel a lot better after reading that. I swear I saw this girls ad on craigslist after looking at a pic she had but even still if only 1% of commercial Sex Workers have HIV then I'm feeling pretty good. I'm not itching so..... we'll see. I'll cross my fingers and if I'm good will not make the same mistake and believe everything a girl says because she makes me feel 'special'.

by nursegirl6572, Jun 15, 2009 09:05AM
I feel it is important to mention that while the chances of getting HIV from one episode of unprotected sex may be low...the risk is not zero.....and testing IS adviseable.  Just think of it this way.....if per the recommendations in this journal...a one-time episode of unsafe sex leads to infection and the person thinks it is okay to wait a year or TWO to test....and then goes on to have unsafe sex with others.....many many many people could end up infected.  THAT is how the virus is spread, after all.

So, while one may not need to lose a lot of sleep over one bad judgement call.....suggesting that testing is not necessary is irresponsible.

by Vance2335, Jun 15, 2009 02:10PM
Another great piece of writing. Great job, keep these up, not only do they help people fearful but also help those who like education.

by swampcritter, Jun 15, 2009 02:44PM
This is a great article -- but if HIV is so difficult to transmit, why is heterosexual transmission of HIV so high in Africa?



by joggen, Jun 15, 2009 10:04PM
nursegirl6572-

I made a pretty clear recommendation that condoms should be worn consistently with future sex partners. I did not suggest unsafe sex with even one person, let alone, "many many many" people, so if someone decides to do that, they certainly didn't get the idea from me.  

Also, I am not aware of any medical authority that recommends HIV testing after individual exposures based on risk criteria, unless there is a clear risk factor involved. Everything I've read indicates that the recommendations are based on intervals. The length of the interval is based on the person's risk. For most people, just an annual test is recommended (but someone with an average of 1 sex partner per year can test every two years). For people at the most risk (MSM), testing every three months is recommended. Even the porn industry doesn't test after each new partner; actors get tested every 30 days.

I consider Dr. Handsfield, the CDC, and the Mayo Clinic all to be responsible authorities and I see no need to tell people they need testing on a more frequent basis than what these authorities advise, _based on their individual risk_(underlined for emphasis). At the same time, I think it makes perfect sense for people to test to address persistent anxiety and doubts that aren't commensurate with the situation. While most people who come to this site probably need to test for anxiety relief, I think it does them a disservice to make any suggestion that encourages or inflates their already unrealistic perception of their individual risk.

J.


by esoj77, Jun 19, 2009 05:31PM
A person I had sex with was once an injection drug user and Joggen emailed me this after my posting---I walked into the clinic with her and she got tested and came back ok--She also slept with someone I deem to be hi risk---he doesnt use condoms and may be Bi--I found out later--had her tested about 5-6 weeks after they last slept together--I did not have full on sex---just would dip and that was it then oral---I saw when she walked out of the test---it was 20 minutes exactly she was ok she told me in front of the tester--he shook my hand (happens to be the guy who tested me neg a few weeks back.) and we were on our way--then I started thinking if she was POZ he couldnt tell me etc...She has not shot up in 3-5 years---turned her life around--so this has been my paranoia--I started feeling achy today--10 days after--but no fever--STD center said if she was positive --she would have been in there a lot longer than 20 minutes---confirmatory test and paper work--would of been in there an hour....After that had another exposure--again--oral---and just dipping very brief half my penis in--thats it--

by Trytor, Jul 24, 2009 10:26AM
Well, whereas i cannot fully garantee that one single sex encounter with an infected person is not enough to transmit the virus, i think we need to consider some more facts, for instance is the man circumcised.There are cases when a man who aint circucised gets multiple bruises on thier penis even if the the escapade is done once.A circumscised man stands more chances of survival and i think the uncircumcised counterpart stands a higher risk.Iam no medic, but ladies and gentlemen, i suggest we get alittle more microscopic about these realities if we are to chant a factual way forward.

It should be noted however that, it is possible to have sex with an infectd person and you dont contract the virus, but who knows even 0.001% chance is not 0% chance.God bless you friends.

by scaredbeyondbelief226, Jul 26, 2009 10:11AM
i really needed to see this article, i know i messed up and im never going to make the same mistake again and i'm extremely worried but this has just eased the nerves a little bit

by Ogagbako, Aug 02, 2009 07:52AM
Relief came to me after reading this article. I've made a mistake over 2 days back for having sex with a prostitute for being drunk and without protection. Because of being drunk, the sex for me was disappointing meaning I did not have a fully erection and there was no chance to put on a condom.

It was a lame sex..being a prostitute she did her best to give me a hard on by oral sex. So in return i give her an oral too.

I tried so hard to put my penis in her and I feel I have succeeded but only from the head of my small, non-fully erect penis. After having not more ten pumps I had an orgasm but only from the outside her vagina.

I told my story to my Nurse friends and I got ridiculed and giving situations that only makes me paranoid and anxious. Well I don't know if their telling the truth or just joking with me. But after I read this article I feel relax now but still going for the test.

My only concern is my wife...we had sex the next morning..HOW COULD I BE SO STUPID...How I wish I'm not infected by my wrong doing...

by itsthejackal, Sep 16, 2009 12:35AM
Thanks J. you have no idea the amount of relief you have brought with this article. Atleast I can live in somewhat peace for the next 3 months before I test rather than die each day. I have been in a monogamous relationship all my life. Only last week under the influence of my friends I visited a masseuse who were supposed to be elite prostitutes in mumbai. They were fairly expensive for the place and were proud that they test all the girls once a month. The girl I had  sex with said she was negative in a test she did 3 weeks back. Although I took the precautions, during the act the condom tore and since then I have been totally terified. The online forums were scaring the **** out of me. Each one with the same advise that i always knew. However nobody giving any solace for someone trying to have protected sex but things going wrong there.

by Trinifool, Sep 16, 2009 09:12AM
Dont wrry you will be ok my freind

by antirisktaker, Sep 27, 2009 01:46PM
This is a great article.  I was scared as well for an incident that happened to me but I am also someone who gets over-anxious with any risk i take.  Sounds like I am not alone.  Either way, I think the clear message of this article is to use common sense with the choices you make but at the same time, we are all vulnerable to human mistakes and should not torture ourselves for them when it is absolutely not necessary.  The media tends to play the scare tactic game and advertises statics that support our fears and not the ones that challenge them.

by worriedwithanxiety, Sep 30, 2009 04:11PM
Thanks for this article. I recently had unprotected vaginal sex with two women simultaneously. A threesome pretty much.... I was drunk and stupid!

I have spent over $1,000 on testing since then... and it's been three weeks now. Two PCR-DNA tests - waiting on the 2nd result.

Both women went to planned parenthood and both tested negative after the experience. Primarily because of me freaking out - in return freaked them out and long story short, reverse psychology made them get tested.

I know my chances are even lower now... and all of my symptoms are most likely a result of stress, anxiety and a regular flu/cold that has been going around.

For anyone going through this, let's learn from our mistakes and not put ourselves in situations like this again.

J- What do you think the chances are now?

by abx20, Oct 10, 2009 08:45PM
yes i appreciate the article i deffinitely have a std from the symtoms, most likely warts but to know i wont die from it makes me feel alot better with less stress, i appreciate it!



by nervousinillinois, Oct 20, 2009 11:54PM
Thank you for this.  I have made very few minor mistakes, but for whatever reason I have been obsessing over them.  Reading this brings me back down to earth.  I've discussed my concerns with my friends (educated college professionals) and they even think I'm strange for worrying about intimate sessions that didn't even involve sex.  But for some reason, coming on this forum, asking my question to the world, brings me peace.
Sometimes I think there is too much information on the internet (accurate or not), but it tends to be very vague and as we all know sex and foreplay can be a complicated thing with endless possibilities and things that can go wrong (or very right), so its easy to get caught up in questions of what if?  Especially if the what if is a life threatening disease.  
I read on your profile Joggin, that you used to have some anxiety with HIV, how did you overcome it, or at what point did you seek help.  I am just very interested in your story.
Thanks :-)

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