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# Are you Agree with what is written ow AIDS is really difficult deceese to catch? Please commend

THIS thoughts BLONG TO ONE OF THE MD IN THE FORUM; ARE YOU AGREE?
Assume a low risk exposure, like a typical heterosexual exposure with a partner of unknown (but probably negative) HIV status. Say the odds someone acquired HIV were 1 chance in 100,000. Now assume a test is 95% accurate at 4 weeks and 99.9% accurate at 3 months. After a negative test at 4 weeks, the odds the person has HIV (despite the test result) is 0.00001 x 0.05 = 0.0000005. That's 5 in 10 million, or once chance in 2 million. That's so low to be considered zero. (It's 75 time LESS than the lifetime chance of someone living in the US being killed by a lightning strike!)

Now assume a very high risk exposure, like a gay man who has unprotected anal sex with a known-infected partner (or being raped by an infected man). The odds of infection might be 1%, i.e. 1 in 100. Test negative at 4 weeks. The odds the person has HIV despite the negative test are 0.01 x 0.05 - 0.0005. That's 1 chance in 2000. Pretty low, and the test result is reassuring. But not nearly reassuring enough; most people will not accept a 1 in 2000 risk of being infected an not knowing it. Therefore, that person needs another test at 3 months. At that time, a negative test result translates into 0.01 x 0.001 = 0.00001, 1 chance in 100,000.

Same test, but the differenence in circumstances leads to different levels of reassurance. The bottom line is that the higher the risk, the more important it is to carry out testing to a later time, such as 8 weeks or even 3 months. The lower the risk, the less it matters to wait that long.

Only you can decide whether you "need" testing as long as 3 months after exposure. But for most people, a single test at 4-6 weeks is sufficient. (If you're going to worry about the possibility of HIV despite a risk of less than 1 in a million, I have to assume you never drive, don't cross busy streets, and never take commercial flights--all of which have a much higher chance of killing you.)
HHH, MD
http://www.medhelp.org/forums/hiv/messages/558.html
14 Responses
Since I don't play the odds game and only testing will tell you if you are infected or not and that there are no tests available or approved for giving conclusive results in less than three months. Then no, I do not agree with the information that you have provided.
I am not trying for people underestimated AIDS. But if those are the facts may be we can some how let people assure that catching AIDS difficult.
So that they may get rd of their foolish fears then the psichologic pains and symtomps.
If someone has unprotected anal or vaginal sex or share works with other IV drug abusers then to see if they have been exposed to HIV is by testing. Period. Symptoms or lack of symptoms means nothing when it comes to diagnosing HIV. HIV can be contracted on the first time of exposure or it could be the hundredth time of exposure. The only way to be safe outside a monogamist relationship is by using a condom.
Teak, How come u didn't mention oral?
I didnt know that how about a man giving oral? is it same possibilities vise versa?
Oral is not a risk. To many studies have been done to prove contracting HIV in that manner is zilch and in 30 years no one has ever gotten HIV from getting a blowjob. Those that said that they contracted HIV from giving, fail to mention their real risks and others could not be proven.
Yes
It is a difficult disease to catch.
But 60 million people have caught it, so it's not that difficult.
Considering the populiation off who have unprotected sex with anonymous partner has reached enourmous numbers. I have got a guy from some affrica countries who says having sex with an anonimous partner is so usual in night clubs. Not even sexworkers ordinary people. At least sex workers has an idea about protection. Others don't bother so you get sex with over 3 people within a night not worring about Aids or STD's.
through my experience, being drunk make people do some stupid stuff they might regret. So be sober to be sure you are conscious.
I might sound preaching but I didn't mean it.
Teak, you seemed to know a lot and also know what information is available.

For months I have been going through the forums of medhelp and thebody.com and finally I put my worries to rest after a negative 12 weeks abbott rapid hiv 1 2 test.

Everything seems ok, despite my ARS symptoms after a "low risk" insertive oral sex exposure from a CSW from Thailand.

But guess what, HIV subtype E is prevalent in SE Asia, especially Thailand and much more contagious than subtype B. Subtype E can attach to langerhans cells which are present in the mouth as well as the genitals, meaning with insertive oral sex the virus can attach itself to the foreskin or penis glans even if there is no cut or sore present.

http://www.alphagalileo.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=library&sid=3&cid=9&itemId=400198

Also, the next article talks about the window period for antibodies to show.

For subtype B: 155 days!
For subtype E: 270 days!

http://gateway.nlm.nih.gov/MeetingAbstracts/102243641.html

I am not here to create any hysteria. I myself will be affected if my assumptions are true, because it mean that I am infected, infected my wife, and my wife has infected my baby.

I hope I have it wrong and that the 6 weeks and 12 weeks window testing period are correct. I just can't believe none of the medical professionals on the forums speak about this and also don't know that subtype E has a longer window period. Even, the CDC who is considered conservative only says very very rare cases take up to 6 months. In Asia they follow the CDC guidelines although it is known that subtype E has a longer window period.

How come that med professionals 25 years in the industry are so confident about a 3 months testing period.

I am posting this because this is a topic I haven't seen covered and I am too tired to research if I am wrong.

How come no research show that in 30 years no one has ever gotten HIV from getting a blowjob. Is it miracle?
Western research. Yes subtype B very hard to catch from a bj because it requires blood-blood contact (open wound in mouth and open wound on penis) but subtype E is present in mucosal areas such as mouth and can attach to lagerhans cells in foreskin or penis. There is no documented case because the focus is on infections in US and Europe which is mostly subtype B. Check the research on subtype E and you will realise how dangerous any unprotected sex is. Even a drip of vaginal fluid on the foreskin or penis glans could cause infection with subtype E because it attaches to the lagerhans cells. Why is this higher risk of subtype E not covered in the safe sex prevention programs? Anybody can tell me I am wrong about the window periods, especially for subtype E.