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HIV transmission probability is 0.07% per act ?

Hi Doc

If HIV transmission probability is 0.07% per act  male to female, 0.04% female to male.
Why is it so prevalent is South Africa with 13% of population infected?
so that is 7 or 4 cases per 10 000 sexual acts, majority of population should be heterosexual

That is if you have sex everyday for 27 years ( 10000/365 =27), you have 7 confirmed chances of getting HIV
So why is it so prevalent?  Doesn't make sense.
Are we undercounting the transmission risk?
Thanks in advance
Kind regards
Best Answer
3191940 tn?1447268717
HIV prevention and education, along with effective treatment for HIV, is non-existent in some areas due to  high poverty rates.  In addition to the transmission methods that affect adults, mother-to-child transmission involving an infected, untreated mother is about 15-30% chance of transmission, with breastfeeding carrying a 10-20% chance of infecting the infant.  

The transmission rates you state are roughly accurate for unprotected intercourse, but having regular unprotected intercourse with people who are HIV+ is likely to lead to eventual infection.
mother-to-child transmission & breast feeding can be a good explanation , thanks very much :)
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Avatar universal
This is an hiv prevention forum only. It is not a forum for statistical inference of the disease, so if you want that kind of information you would have to contact a researcher. It is a lot more complicated than just the assumptions you are using, so I wouldn't bother questioning their methods, fwiw.
Helpful - 2
an important part of prevention is about knowing the probability of contracting the disease ie the statistical inference. Your answer is not useful at all.
Only sex risks are unprotected penetrating penis in a vagina or anus. Only non sex risk is sharing hollow needles that you use to inject with. hiv prevention is straightforward because if you don't do any of the above 3 then you will not get hiv.
The virus does not care if you know the probability and will infect whenever the conditions allow.
Both of your posts indicate weakness in understanding of the value of statistics. You posed 3 questions initially, and now you are onto a new tangent - trying to use statistical probabilities to prevent an individual infection.
Every time a person takes one of the above 3 risks, they have a chance of contracting the disease, so knowing the probability will have no effect.
Just to know, HIV in South Africa is thought to be much more heterosexual transmission than, say, in the US.  A reason South Africa has such high rates is that all data from that country is highly theoretical, as there is such a great social stigma about homosexuality and the false belief that's how everyone is getting it that most people go untreated.  If your statistics are based on educated guesses rather than hard data, they aren't all that useful in drawing specific conclusions.  But the main point to know about statistics is that they never apply to an individual.  You can have a million to one chance of getting hit by a meteor but if you do by chance get hit by one, what good did the statistics do for you?  They are just a piece of info that might or might not be accurate given all statistics are an estimate given nobody ever checks everyone.  It's a sample.  For you as an individual, the only important thing to know is if you did anything of risk and if you didn't, you don't have a problem, and if you did, get tested.
And just so you don't keep posting the same thing, think of covid.  It's actually not statistically all that likely to kill anyone, so why is it killing so many people?  The reason is that it is so incredibly contagious tons of people are getting it.  The statistics would suggest calm, but the contagiousness negates the calm.  Peace.
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