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Avatar universal

Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics

It is good to know a healthy debate transpired on this subject by Dumbo, Teak, et al, while I was sleeping, literally.

I thought Dr. Bob had chosen his words very carefully when answering a question on HIV risk and statistics, for everyone to understand, but sadly it is evident that this subject is still causing confusion and angst.

I have a great deal of respect for Dr. Bob, who has a considerable amount of experience and expertise, with his whole life devoted to the subject. I for one would not even attempt to challenge his views or have any reason to do so.

The reason why we find the often quoted HIV transmission risk alien or confusing is because these risks are generalized to "route of exposure", i.e. anal, vaginal, oral, etc, and applicable to all population samples. In any given situation, there are many other factors which can have a bearing transmission, such as, viral load, viral strain, host immune system and genetic disposition to HIV and other factors such as duration of exposure, type of exposure etc. Damn, if we think about it hard enough even the colour of bed-sheets, position of the moon/sun, and high/low tide could be a variable : ). Each specific situation is different and would have its own level of risk associated with it. Realistically, we can
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Avatar universal
What is accurate however is the prevelance of HIV amongst sub-sets of population.

You can use this as a basis for determining level of risk whether it be at an individual level or as a population.

This is exactly why flying is safe....except for those that crash and die.

This doesn't mean you should not practice "safe" sex in these populations, but the risk is still much lower, than anal sex, MSM, in New York.

In a typical white, heterosexual population the incidence of HIV is very low, particularly outside of major cities, and particularly if it is vaginal or oral sex.

Anyone who thinks otherwise simply has not studied the statistics.

When you multiply this by the chance of transmission, which, at it its worst (anal receptive), is rarely greater than 1 in 50 (2%)...

the chances you have HIV from one exposure is absolutely minimal.

When this is compounded by a -ve test at 6-8 weeks, the risk of still being infected is hundreds of millions to 1.  i.e. non-existent

Not saying it can't happen, but it's rarer than hen's teeth
Avatar universal
Tell that to the people in Africa. Tell that to the people in India and Mexico. Tell that to the African-American population here in the US. I don
Avatar universal
Oh dear me. How rude !

As I said;

"In a typical white, heterosexual population the incidence of HIV is very low, particularly outside of major cities, and particularly if it is vaginal or oral sex.

Anyone who thinks otherwise simply has not studied the statistics."

Does that sound like Africa, India or Mexico to you ?


As you said;

"All anyone here has to do is search your name and look at your threads and questions. You sir should never give advice until you get yourself up to par on the transmission of HIV. "

A personal attack on me, doesn't invalidate the information I gave. If anything it is the converse of what I have previously feared. My behaviour is driven by irrational anxiety, not an ignorance of the facts.

From what I have read, you have no greater understanding of HIV transmission, or testing than I do.

Avatar universal
Oh please Freddy. Give us a break here. I've forgot more about HIV than you know. You can work off statistics all you like they mean diddley squat. It's either you have a risk and have gotten infected or you haven't. Statistics are like symptoms they have no meaning to someone that has had a risk or has been infected.
Avatar universal
You said -
"A personal attack on me, doesn't invalidate the information I gave. If anything it is the converse of what I have previously feared. My behaviour is driven by irrational anxiety, not an ignorance of the facts.

From what I have read, you have no greater understanding of HIV transmission, or testing than I do."

A - H.O.L.E - I have seen your testing history a million times & do you think anyone in right frame of mind should be following your advice. Aren't you ashamed of even giving advice after what  like a million tests. You are a freak.

I urge everyone to report this guy. This man is CRAZY!!!. Worried people here do not need you, nor you nonsense F....'d up knowledge.. Get Lost!!!
Avatar universal
No, I am not in the slightest bit ashamed. The fear I have felt, and the knowledge I have acquired puts me in an excellent position to help others facing a similar situation.

You're response to me however, ought to make you feel ashamed.

Putting my behaviour to one side....(if you can)

It is important to understand that a risk is not a binary thing. You don't either have a risk or don't have a risk. Risks are quantifiable. You are at risk right now from all sorts of things. Chances are that you are not frightened because you can put that risk into some kind of context.

The purpose behind my posts, is actually to reassure those people who believe that their risk is great when, in fact, as it was with mine, it is often negligble.

I am not advocating unsafe sex, not testing or anything else, I am merely saying that if you put some context around your fears, it can bring some degree of reassurance.

It is ham-fisted statements like "the chances are 50/50" that Teak advocates that are ill-advised and completely wrong. Having a 2 outcome possibility does not mean that the chances are 50/50.

As for not knowing about HIV or testing etc. I'm willing to be tested on that.

It's sounds to me like you are just another ignorant, blunt brained yank, who wants simple answers.

That insult was intended as mild revenge :-)
188761 tn?1559713227
COMMUNITY LEADER
I must say....That *WINDOW CALCULATOR* is hilarious !

It should be posted to FDA /CDC, maybe they'll even go ahead and approve it and put it up on www.fda.gov / www.cdc.gov....

looks like some kinda a ready reckoner designed for HIV window !
Avatar universal
o_g,

Why are you here ?

for fearful, feaky behaviour, see your own post;

http://www.medhelp.org/forums/HIVSupport/messages/192.html

Wow ! two DNA-PCR's....you beat me !

Still having the neuropathy ? I would have thought with all your tests and the logic you apply to every situation, you would have moved on by now.

A little kindness wouldn't go amiss.

If you believe my behaviour is so freaky..why would it bother you so much ?

Maybe it tugs at your own fears ?  After the way you've spoken to me, I hope so.

188761 tn?1559713227
COMMUNITY LEADER
I COMPLETELY AGREE TO THIS !
202123 tn?1208054800
SO BASICALLY USE CONDOMS
Avatar universal
Sound good!I agree they should change those numbers.
Avatar universal
Well, "LOGIC" seems to be the most "FU'd " up word to be used with a person like you but I will try to reason out.
Dude, can you even take yourself seriously anymore. Forget, other people taking you seriously.

"Not knowing status is 1 thing , testing and knowing is another". You are so screwed in the head that you are repeatedly coming and posting ur million test results over here again and again. Do you think you are helping other. What kind of help is that to a person who tests at 4 weeks and want to see some hope at the end of the tunnel. You are imposing ur stupid irrationality over people who are already in deep anxious state. You are nothing more than a mean ******* who wants to break world record for testing. You don't have any consideration for other forum users and you are still here for yourself and nothing you say is intended to help others.

I am happy that you are out of your troubles(congrats for that!!) but please stop troubling others with you absolutely ":F'ed up" behavior. To be honest, with your track record, anyone with a sane head on his shoulders should not even care looking at your posts as they hold nothing valuable. Man, do you see what you have become. You are coming up with your(home brewed) own absolutely screwed up Window Period BS. In 1 of my other posts I wrote this forum has become a psycho dweller where 1 psycho creates 1000 others. I am yet to figure out whether you are the creator or createe.. Man...stop posting n get on with watever ie..ur life.. get it back on track. Get urself rid of this "freak show" u FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKKKKKKKK!!!!

Note: "All insults really intended". And, I think in a sick way "you like being called a freak"
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