Life expectancy of St. Jude mechanical AVR patients

[green881]

   I found the following statements from method and results of a research paper( Title: Prognosis after aortic valve replacement with St. Jude Medical bileaflet prostheses: impact on outcome of varying thromboembolic and bleeding hazards) in the European heart journal:

   Eight studies were included in a meta-analysis of published results of primary isolated AVR with SJM prostheses (2986 patients, 16,163 patient-years) in order to estimate the hazard of postoperative valve-related events. Using microsimulation, calculated life expectancy and event-free life expectancy were 22 and 16 years in males aged 35 years, and 7 and 5 years in males aged 75 years, respectively. Calculated lifetime risks for thromboembolic and bleeding events were 22% and 15% in males aged 35 years, and 7% and 37% in males aged 75 years, respectively. Varying thromboembolic and bleeding hazards resulted in considerable shifts in lifetime risks and deaths associated with these events.

  Probably this paper would be published in 2001.  I had SJM AVR at 32 years old 23 years ago.
I am kind of confusing and frightening about the above results.  Would anybody explain the above method and results well?

Thanks.

[green881]

Hi Ken,

Thank you for your reply again.

Take care.

[jimbeau]

I had my AVR with a St. Jude at age 20. I am now almost 52. Life expectancy of 22 years? I don't think so!!! I did have a bleeding problem within 5 years related to the coumadin. Every day is a blessing.

[Newf67]

I had my AVR  20 years ago at age 30. It's still going strong. I expect to run a sub 4 hour marathon next month

[kenkeith]

Posted information: Microsimulation models are analyzing input data from 2001 and applying the results to a population that may not have same orginally characteristics for any current prognostification, and the data may be reviewed as a snapshot for the 2001 period and irrelevent for any reliable feedback other than a comparative analysis for the current time..  

Microsimulation models are analogous to a rearview mirror and a snapshot...poor prognosis because parameters change. Usefulness, could be as an example, establish current statistics with the same parameters and make a comparison to determine if there has been any benefical changes.

Thanks for your question, take care.

Ken