Aa
Vertex Shares down big today
Hum
I don't know if it means anything but the money people seem to know before anyone else.
Ron
I don't know if it means anything but the money people seem to know before anyone else.
Ron
VRTX opened at $32.29 and closed at $31.02 today. I'd hardly call that "down big", especially factoring in the "normal" volatility of pharm stocks on the verge of reporting major trial news. Plus it's been floating around the high 20's and low 30's for a while now.
Fahhhgettaboutitt.
Fahhhgettaboutitt.
I've got to agree with MREmeet. The stock is down like 3.4% today which is hardly newsworthy. The stock, while down today, still stands 2 dollars higher than it was 5 days ago.
The value of the stock varies from day to day depending on other external market events. Just as we've been skittish about the stock so have the stockbrokers; it's been a real yo-yo. The first presentation at EASL is tomorrow thru the 14th and it's possible that the stocks value will soon really start moving. This hiccup today may seem like nothin in a day or two.
Try to keep in mind that even if the results are mixed the trial is still not over. If this drug becomes a useful tool in treating HCV it's full potential may yet not be realized and may not be fully utilized even after (and IF) it is approved. Even if the drug is modestly successful and cures another 10% what will that equal in human lives?
It ain't over till the fat compond sings. : )
Best,
Willy
The value of the stock varies from day to day depending on other external market events. Just as we've been skittish about the stock so have the stockbrokers; it's been a real yo-yo. The first presentation at EASL is tomorrow thru the 14th and it's possible that the stocks value will soon really start moving. This hiccup today may seem like nothin in a day or two.
Try to keep in mind that even if the results are mixed the trial is still not over. If this drug becomes a useful tool in treating HCV it's full potential may yet not be realized and may not be fully utilized even after (and IF) it is approved. Even if the drug is modestly successful and cures another 10% what will that equal in human lives?
It ain't over till the fat compond sings. : )
Best,
Willy
to buy a fat pig, home again home again jiggety jig.
I guess I've been reading too many nursery rhymes. .
Anyhow.. I try to avoid posting stock analysis / opinions on VX-950 because I realize many don't like to see it or think about it (including me), but I read it nonetheless, and since this thread mentions the "market" and since many have their eyes fixed on VX at the ESLD ........
SOURCE:
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1034597520070410
Bullish views on Vertex ahead of liver meeting
Tue Apr 10, 2007 11:47AM EDT
By Bill Berkrot - Analysis
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) will present data on its closely watched experimental hepatitis C treatment this week and many analysts are saying this is a good time to buy the company's beaten down shares despite the risk that the data could disappoint.
Investors appear to be listening, as Vertex shares have recovered about 14 percent in recent days ahead of the European liver disease meeting in Barcelona at which the data will be unveiled on Saturday.
The shares had shed about a third of their value from late November through March as enthusiasm for the drug, VX-950 or telaprevir, was tempered by safety concerns.
The shares broke back through the $30 barrier late last week and climbed another 2 percent on Tuesday to $32.16 after trading at around $45 back in November.
Sanford Bernstein analyst Geoffrey Porges thinks the data coming out of the meeting will calm investor nerves substantially and is encouraging clients to buy Vertex shares.
"I believe that we'll come away from this meeting believing that VX-950 is still the leading and most likely candidate to transform the treatment of hepatitis C virus," Porges said.
"We'll see a lot of preclinical data about other compounds and other combinations of compounds (at the meeting) but I don't think we'll see anything that is anywhere near where Vertex is in terms of having significant clinical data," added Porges, who has a price target of $52 on Vertex shares. Continued...
Merrill Lynch analyst Hari Sambasivam wrote in a research note last month: "While we cannot rule out further declines, current levels represent an opportunity for patient investors."
VX-950 is being tested in combination with two medicines considered to be the gold standard of treatment -- a long-acting interferon and the antiviral drug ribavirin.
Analysts, investors and liver specialists will pore over the mid-stage clinical trial data with particular interest in the sustained virologic response (SVR) of the drug -- the percentage of patients in whom the virus stayed below detectable levels -- and the number of patients who dropped out due to adverse side effects.
DROPOUT RATE
Concern over the dropout rate seen in previous data put considerable pressure on the shares and raised tolerability concerns, although much of the dropout seen earlier was due to a rash rather than more serious side effects.
"We view the home run scenario of 75 percent SVR rate for telaprevir for only 12 weeks of therapy as possible but a long shot," Piper Jaffray analyst Rachel McMinn wrote in a research note. "We view an SVR rate in the 40 percent to 50 percent range as more probable."
Cowen and Co. analyst Phil Nadeau said investors are likely looking for at least a 40 percent sustained response. "If you see over 40 to 50 percent, people will be happy; less than 40 and people will be somewhat disappointed," he said.
"If it's very potent, people might be more tolerant on the side effects," Nadeau noted. "If it's thought to be less potent, the side effects become more important." Continued...
Much of the focus before the meeting appears to be on three-month follow-up data from a small subset of about 20 patients who had treatment stopped after just 12 weeks in an effort to glean further efficacy and tolerability clues, several analysts said.
However, Bernstein's Porges believes that group to be far too small to draw meaningful conclusions. He instead will be looking at the full complement of 175 patients that had started taking the medicine during the Phase IIb trial.
"When you've got nearly 200 patients treated, and probably you'll see no more than 5 to 10 incidents of side effects including rash, I think that will calm peoples' fears and anxieties a lot," Porges predicted.
Options and equities analysts are expecting near-term volatility, but most are predicting a long-term winner with sales of the drug eventually exceeding $1 billion a year.
on Vertex.
"This drug is a front runner in the hepatitis C space," Nadeau said, "and no matter what happens over the weekend there's still many other ways this can become a very large, very successful product."
(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago)
Company News
Vertex 4th-quarter loss narrows
Vertex 4th-quarter loss narrows
Vertex says GlaxoSmithKline drops HIV drug
UPDATE 1-Vertex hepatitis C drug successful in larger trial
Vertex hepatitis C drug successful in larger trial
SOURCE:
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1034597520070410
I guess I've been reading too many nursery rhymes. .
Anyhow.. I try to avoid posting stock analysis / opinions on VX-950 because I realize many don't like to see it or think about it (including me), but I read it nonetheless, and since this thread mentions the "market" and since many have their eyes fixed on VX at the ESLD ........
SOURCE:
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1034597520070410
Bullish views on Vertex ahead of liver meeting
Tue Apr 10, 2007 11:47AM EDT
By Bill Berkrot - Analysis
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) will present data on its closely watched experimental hepatitis C treatment this week and many analysts are saying this is a good time to buy the company's beaten down shares despite the risk that the data could disappoint.
Investors appear to be listening, as Vertex shares have recovered about 14 percent in recent days ahead of the European liver disease meeting in Barcelona at which the data will be unveiled on Saturday.
The shares had shed about a third of their value from late November through March as enthusiasm for the drug, VX-950 or telaprevir, was tempered by safety concerns.
The shares broke back through the $30 barrier late last week and climbed another 2 percent on Tuesday to $32.16 after trading at around $45 back in November.
Sanford Bernstein analyst Geoffrey Porges thinks the data coming out of the meeting will calm investor nerves substantially and is encouraging clients to buy Vertex shares.
"I believe that we'll come away from this meeting believing that VX-950 is still the leading and most likely candidate to transform the treatment of hepatitis C virus," Porges said.
"We'll see a lot of preclinical data about other compounds and other combinations of compounds (at the meeting) but I don't think we'll see anything that is anywhere near where Vertex is in terms of having significant clinical data," added Porges, who has a price target of $52 on Vertex shares. Continued...
Merrill Lynch analyst Hari Sambasivam wrote in a research note last month: "While we cannot rule out further declines, current levels represent an opportunity for patient investors."
VX-950 is being tested in combination with two medicines considered to be the gold standard of treatment -- a long-acting interferon and the antiviral drug ribavirin.
Analysts, investors and liver specialists will pore over the mid-stage clinical trial data with particular interest in the sustained virologic response (SVR) of the drug -- the percentage of patients in whom the virus stayed below detectable levels -- and the number of patients who dropped out due to adverse side effects.
DROPOUT RATE
Concern over the dropout rate seen in previous data put considerable pressure on the shares and raised tolerability concerns, although much of the dropout seen earlier was due to a rash rather than more serious side effects.
"We view the home run scenario of 75 percent SVR rate for telaprevir for only 12 weeks of therapy as possible but a long shot," Piper Jaffray analyst Rachel McMinn wrote in a research note. "We view an SVR rate in the 40 percent to 50 percent range as more probable."
Cowen and Co. analyst Phil Nadeau said investors are likely looking for at least a 40 percent sustained response. "If you see over 40 to 50 percent, people will be happy; less than 40 and people will be somewhat disappointed," he said.
"If it's very potent, people might be more tolerant on the side effects," Nadeau noted. "If it's thought to be less potent, the side effects become more important." Continued...
Much of the focus before the meeting appears to be on three-month follow-up data from a small subset of about 20 patients who had treatment stopped after just 12 weeks in an effort to glean further efficacy and tolerability clues, several analysts said.
However, Bernstein's Porges believes that group to be far too small to draw meaningful conclusions. He instead will be looking at the full complement of 175 patients that had started taking the medicine during the Phase IIb trial.
"When you've got nearly 200 patients treated, and probably you'll see no more than 5 to 10 incidents of side effects including rash, I think that will calm peoples' fears and anxieties a lot," Porges predicted.
Options and equities analysts are expecting near-term volatility, but most are predicting a long-term winner with sales of the drug eventually exceeding $1 billion a year.
on Vertex.
"This drug is a front runner in the hepatitis C space," Nadeau said, "and no matter what happens over the weekend there's still many other ways this can become a very large, very successful product."
(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago)
Company News
Vertex 4th-quarter loss narrows
Vertex 4th-quarter loss narrows
Vertex says GlaxoSmithKline drops HIV drug
UPDATE 1-Vertex hepatitis C drug successful in larger trial
Vertex hepatitis C drug successful in larger trial
SOURCE:
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1034597520070410
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