Aa
Vertex stock down sharply in recent trading
Vertex stock has been moving around a lot, both up and down in the last several weeks. But lately it seems to be on a bit of a downward spiral, down a buck and a quarter just today by midday. Not sure what's driving it down, but mixed Prove trial results and competition from other drug co's are probably responsible. Not sure if these stock trader guys have caught on about what's happening with Alinia yet (I doubt it)...but from what I've heard so far Alinia may eventually pose a threat to Vertex's stock valuation. Some of the traders read this forum pretty religiously (as an ongoing reality check to help filter through corporate spin), so I suppose they'll know now.
Looks like the market got wind yesterday that they are going deeper in debt. I am sure they will explain their burn rate at the CC. AFTER the market close. Also, I think they had a debt carry forward from last qtr. of 200m and with all the on going trials and future trials, tack on another 10/15Mm and then there is the converts?
So, I don’t think this dip had really anything to do with the drugs in the pipes. If it should go back to $27/28 I would consider a steal, just a waiting game like all the others.
I really don't think the heavy weights read message boards in their Decisions making Processes.
jasper
At June 30, 2007, we had $617.2 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities and $42.1 million in principal amount of 5% Convertible Subordinated Notes due September 2007, which we refer to as the 2007 Notes. We currently intend to repay the outstanding 2007 Notes in September 2007 using our existing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. In the first quarter of 2007, $59.6 million in principal amount of 5.75% Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes due in February 2011, which we refer to as the 2011 Notes, were converted by the holders into our common stock.
So, I don’t think this dip had really anything to do with the drugs in the pipes. If it should go back to $27/28 I would consider a steal, just a waiting game like all the others.
I really don't think the heavy weights read message boards in their Decisions making Processes.
jasper
At June 30, 2007, we had $617.2 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities and $42.1 million in principal amount of 5% Convertible Subordinated Notes due September 2007, which we refer to as the 2007 Notes. We currently intend to repay the outstanding 2007 Notes in September 2007 using our existing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. In the first quarter of 2007, $59.6 million in principal amount of 5.75% Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes due in February 2011, which we refer to as the 2011 Notes, were converted by the holders into our common stock.
Nope, I never bought any. Well maybe I didn't, I really don't like discussing the specifics of my portfolio. But if I did buy it, sure wouldn't be very smart to post a negative comment like this about its dropping value and a potential market share threat in the form of Alinia (unless I shorted, of course).
And you say "Other than the recent EOT (not SVR) study posted, and "HR's" comments here, haven't heard anyone else very excited about it..." Well believe me, there's a loyal following of HCV drug co investors that watch very closely what is said on this specific forum (and others). Including top tier analysts who professionally research each and every developmental nuance, news brief and potential market threat. Adam Feuerstein of thestreet.com is just one of those. They have access to some information that even we don't, and/or they'll get the info before the general public does. And when they find something out, even if it's speculative and based on less than rock solid data, it's dissected and reported to major shareholders and fund managers very quickly. If they think there may be a sudden, relatively unanticipated contender in the realm of HCV treatment that basically comes outta nowhere - especially one that's already fully developed, readily available, already FDA approved and appears to have good antiviral efficacy AND a low toxicity profile? Then they might start unloading their VRTX and take some profits until they get it all sorted out...maybe. Right now the stock's generally priced with the known competition in mind, competition that is mostly well behind it in their development and testing cycles. But I don't believe it's priced with Alinia in mind, should Alinia turn out to be a good drug that is. One thing's for sure, there's certainly been lesser things that've caused short turn selloffs in the history of stock trading. And with volatile pharm/tech stocks, it doesn't take much.
PS>> The more we talk about this on this thread, the more likely it'll become a self fullfilling prophecy. ;-)
And you say "Other than the recent EOT (not SVR) study posted, and "HR's" comments here, haven't heard anyone else very excited about it..." Well believe me, there's a loyal following of HCV drug co investors that watch very closely what is said on this specific forum (and others). Including top tier analysts who professionally research each and every developmental nuance, news brief and potential market threat. Adam Feuerstein of thestreet.com is just one of those. They have access to some information that even we don't, and/or they'll get the info before the general public does. And when they find something out, even if it's speculative and based on less than rock solid data, it's dissected and reported to major shareholders and fund managers very quickly. If they think there may be a sudden, relatively unanticipated contender in the realm of HCV treatment that basically comes outta nowhere - especially one that's already fully developed, readily available, already FDA approved and appears to have good antiviral efficacy AND a low toxicity profile? Then they might start unloading their VRTX and take some profits until they get it all sorted out...maybe. Right now the stock's generally priced with the known competition in mind, competition that is mostly well behind it in their development and testing cycles. But I don't believe it's priced with Alinia in mind, should Alinia turn out to be a good drug that is. One thing's for sure, there's certainly been lesser things that've caused short turn selloffs in the history of stock trading. And with volatile pharm/tech stocks, it doesn't take much.
PS>> The more we talk about this on this thread, the more likely it'll become a self fullfilling prophecy. ;-)
Very wise Jim. Take it from me, doing the market while on tx is a very bad idea. Even when you think you're on the case - your not. I really blew it in August when the market bombed and I had a breakthrough at the same time. Well, guess which one got my attention first. Next time I'll get out and stay out for the duration.
dt.
dt.
I was thinking about buying in over a year ago, but just couldn't make any financial decisions during treatment and frankly probably couldn't have handled the stock's volatility on ribavirin. I'm guessing it will eventually go sky high and I've got good instincts picking stocks it's just my timing sucks and you know where that ends you up. LOL.
-- Jim
-- Jim
"Let us know if we should start passing the hat around. " (VBG)....perhaps mre shorted the stock @ 41 and is sitting on a nice 10% profit for a months worth of work...Like they say, as volume goes, so goes the stock price.. Trading volume peaked a month before the stock price....
Mre: But lately (Telaprevir) seems to be on a bit of a downward spiral,
I think there could be a lot of reasons for the stock drop, including some you mentioned, but I doubt very much if Alinia has anything to do with it. Other than the recent EOT (not SVR) study posted, and "HR's" comments here, haven't heard anyone else very excited about it, but hopefully I'm wrong. I do remember that in the past you mentioned you might invest in Teleprevir. Let us know if we should start passing the hat around.
-- Jim
I think there could be a lot of reasons for the stock drop, including some you mentioned, but I doubt very much if Alinia has anything to do with it. Other than the recent EOT (not SVR) study posted, and "HR's" comments here, haven't heard anyone else very excited about it, but hopefully I'm wrong. I do remember that in the past you mentioned you might invest in Teleprevir. Let us know if we should start passing the hat around.
-- Jim
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