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Dr gives me 1% chance of healthy natural pregnancy.

Hello,
Warning - very lengthy posting -  but I wanted to share with you my very thorough, 3-hour consultation at the fertility clinic today.

The clinic of four fertility specialists, all affiiated with the Univesity of Toronto, takes up one full floor in a Bay street office.  Very nice and clean and bright.  Lots of baby photos with thank you notes line the walls, including one from a local politician.  Massage chairs for waiting patients. All very nice.

While my boyfriend is getting his back massaged, I go for a pelvic u/s with full bladder, But my bladder is not full enough and so I spend 30 minutes guzzling 2 500 mL of cold water.  Then a quick dash to the washroom followed by a transvaginal u/s.  The technician really shouldn't be giving me her opinions, but we're chatting - we share a slavic kinship - and she finishes by assuring me that everything looks great, she guarantees I can get pregnant.  I tell her of my 2 miscarriages and she tells me it must be chromosomal - "my husband's fault".  I tell her I am 42 and she insists I look 32 and again, assures me that I will get pregnant again.  I feel good:)

We are introduced to our Dr. who prefaces our conversation with his "patient-focused" philosophy.   He's here to serve us and answer any questions.  (But when I tell him I'll be taking notes he tells me I don't need to as I'll be getting a copy of his scribbled ones.  

We talk for almost an hour, going over our consecutive medical histories.

Then I beat him to the punchline.  I tell him I think it's a numbers game.  He confirms that my reproductive ageing may be the main issue here.  He draws a chart.  Between ages 37-45, the pregnancy line dips down to 0.  At my age, he tells me I have only a 15% chance of conceiving every month.

Then he talks about ovarian reserves.  My age, and the fact that I smoked in my youth, is a negative.  He'll be measuring my FSH and AMH but because of my m/c, he's guessing they'll be negative factors. My AFL (those little hairs on my fallopian tubes) was measured today on the u/s, and that was a positive.

The Dr. then goes over his plan of attack.  He'll be checking for genetic problems, anatomic problems, endocrine (PCOS and luteal phase) issues, infections, endometriosis, thormbotic or other (ie male DNA fragmentation from my partner.)  Then, I need to decide whether I'll try conceive naturally again, or whether I want to "superovulate".  

I ask about taking hormones because of my mother's history with breast cancer and he shushes me by saying: "But you're prepared to do anything to have a baby."  Well, no, I'm not, I tell him.

Then he tells me that given my age and my history of 2 m/c - WAIT FOR THIS - that I HAVE A 1% CHANGE OF A BRINGING A BABY TO TERM. AND AT MY AGE, 1 OUT OF EVERY 10 BABIES WILL HAVE DOWNS SYNDROME.  IF I CONSIDER DONOR EGGS, I WILL HAVE A 85% OF HAVING A HEALTHY BABY.

I tell him I prefer hearing that 90 babies out of a 100 are born healthy.

Then he does a pap smear.  Then I go for bloodwork.  I stopped looking after the 10th vial of blood was removed.  I need to go back next week because I need to do a 14 hour fast before they can take out more blood.  They're testing for everything covered by OHIP and then some; routine chromosome analysis; HIV; testosterone; androstenedione; progesterone; dheas; aht.  My partner is also getting bloodwork done.

Cycle monitoring will begin on Day 3 of my AF.  Later on he'll do an HSG (x-ray of uterus and tubes) and endometrial biopsy.  If I get pregnant, he'll be prescribing progesterone and baby aspirin.  

1% CHANCE ON MY OWN.  My boyfriend is out helping our friend move and I'm just sitting here stunned with this stat whirling in my head.  I wish he didn't tell me this.  I hate stats.  I feel kind of dead right now. My sadness and anger is irrational.  I felt like screaming at him: "F*** YOU AND YOUR FRIGGIN' 1% CHANCE".  

But he is a nice doctor. And I want all of this investigative work done.  I'm just angry at this 1% chance.

12 Responses
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671251 tn?1236116671
hi Miranda,
It might make you feel better to know that I conceived naturally at age 51.  Even though we lost our baby at 8 mos, my pregancy was my happiest and healthiest one I've had. My two sons are 27 and 25.  I did get toxemia at the end but without any outward symptoms.  I had no problems with BP at all before that. My doctor told me to assume I am fertile now and to take precautions since we are not planning to get pregnant again because of my age. He said that after I miss 6 periods in a row, then I can assume I can no longer get pregnant.
~Susan
Helpful - 0
413852 tn?1317308712
I LOVE the line that Amanda said...he is a human being...he is not God. ;o)

I understand they are "schooled" & their thought patterns move in that direction, but it is so funny to me to say that "ALL" women are alike when it comes to ttc. We shouldn't be handled with a "cookie-cutter" mentality.

I'm like you Miranda, I don't like stats...deal with me...I just don't buy into it. I've known too many women age 40+ who have conceived naturally! ;o) My girlfriend did @ age 46 & delivered when she turned 47...she had NO help from docs & her baby is healthy & very smart...no "DOWNS" in sight. ;o) Yes...they do have these situations, but why do they always have to start with the negatives. ;o)

I hope all the replies encourage you Miranda. ;o)
Helpful - 0
667409 tn?1309152183
I have to agree with everyone else here...I'm sure your doctor is striving for the best, but trying to prepare you for the worst case scenario. I'm not sure why he'd give you that estimate without YOUR test results, like Amanda said, but it *does sound like he's being thorough.

And here's something to hold on to...my neighbor across the street just had a healthy baby boy. She has an 8 y.o. son (my son's friend), and they tried for many years after that to get pg, but didn't...so she gave up and they stopped trying. She was 43 when she got pregnant, and had absolutely NO problems and the baby is gorgeous and healthy.

I just know that, if there's a will, there's got to be a way. Don't give up hope! Good luck and I'm keeping you in my thoughts!

Tricia
Helpful - 0
377493 tn?1356502149
You know what, that is a fantastic point that Lisa made.  I didn't even think of that, but it sure makes perfect sense.  It is a relatively small group compared to 20's and 30 somethings.  

I'm sorry your still feeling down today Miranda.  When do you see him for your test results?  I bet things are a lot more positive then he is telling you now.  Hang in there, its all going to work out.
Helpful - 0
384150 tn?1399904816
Sometimes to much info is to much.
If as many woman 42+ were trying to get pregnant as woman 20-35 then I bet the percentages would be higher.  There are not very many woman in our age group who actually want to get pregnant so how do they get their numbers?  There are also ( unfortunantly), a lot of woman in our age group who DO get pregnant on accident , and abort the babies. Do they include these women?  Or is it just woman who are trying in controlled clinics under fertility meds??
Who knows.  What I do know is that I hear everyday about someone else over 42 who has had a healthy baby.
Keep the faith my friend!
Lisa
Helpful - 0
461551 tn?1328992584
I think where there is a will there is a way.

Good Luck to you and God Bless
Helpful - 0
Avatar universal
Thank you for your replies.  (I'm feeling grateful to all of you.) All very helpful in helping me put things in perspective.  You are all right; it is a worst case scenario and a sweeping generalization before knowing any of my test results.  40smama's comment is very reassuring to me.

I am still feeling depressed this morning but at the same time holding out hope for my own test results.  

Helpful - 0
254689 tn?1251180040
Miranda - I just thought of something else - usually that stat (1%) is given to women 42+ who are trying to conceive through IVF.  For some reason, their eggs don't do well w/the process.  I would think conceiving naturally would be the 15% statistic.  It seems he gave you contradicting information.
Helpful - 0
254689 tn?1251180040
I hate when drs do this - give stats w/out the test results and it happens all of the time it seems.  I know this though Miranda - my own re gave birth at age 43 naturally.  I know she gives out worse-case scenarios too but then she will tell stories of women who conceive naturally or otherwise at age 40+.

Amanda gave super advice, Miranda - I think she took the words right out of my mouth.  I sincerely think you'll get that baby you want - it might take some time and it may not.  I tend to believe that fertility at our age is an uphill battle but it can be won sometimes w/a little help.  I should know this since I conceived w/donor eggs - a fact that i don't regret at all - not that you'll have to take that measure however.  

Good luck to you & I hope you get your test results quickly - jen
Helpful - 0
377493 tn?1356502149
I am completely confused here.  Without having any test results or knowing anything more about you then you are 42 and smoked in your youth, he is saying 1%??  I guess he is the dr., but that is just not sounding right.  Shouldn't he be evaluating you based on YOUR test results??  And where is this 1% coming from?  From the little information he has at this point how can he possibly make this determination?  Miranda, as a Dr. he has to give you the worst case scenario.  Honey, take a breathe, have a glass of wine (I will be joining you as I am about to do the same) and take it one step at a time.  First thing is, get those test results, see what they say about YOU!  Then take the decision making process one step at a time.  You have so many options, and you are in control here.  If it were me, I would be as upset as you are, I can only imagine how you are feeling hearing a number like that.  But try to put it in perspective...and honestly, he shouldn't go throwing numbers around until he at least has some test results.  I am sure he is lovely, and I also know for us Canadians changing Dr.'s is not a simple matter.  But remember, he is a Dr., not a God.  He is human, and you need to take charge here.  Get the information first.  Then make your decisions.   Sending a great big hug your way!!!  Amanda
Helpful - 0
294043 tn?1354207946
Until he knows your FSH I don't think he can tell you what your chances are.  And by the way, everyone has about a 15% chance of getting pregnant in any given month.  You just have to wait for the blood work to come in.  Besides, you got pregnant twice in the past.  Perhaps all you need is just a little bit of help to maintain your pregnancy.

Good luck and let us know what your tests show.
Helpful - 0
231441 tn?1333892766
Hey, 1% is a general statistic.  Doesn't mean it applies to you personally.

Keep upbeat about this road you're travelling.  Women your age can and do become pregnant and have healthy babies.

Swear all you need to get it out, but then focus on doing what you need to do so you can have  your baby bundle.


Helpful - 0
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