Welcome to the forum.
You are correct that no data exist to provide a quantative estimate. For HSV-2, however, we can be highly confident that the risk is no higher than one in several million. Few people with HSV-2 have oral infections, and when they do, recurrent outbreaks and asymptomatic shedding of the virus are less common than for HSV-1 or for genital HSV-2. In 30+ years in the STD business, to my knowledge I have never come across a patient with genital HSV-2 acquired by oral sex.
The risks are obviously higher for HSV-1. But for any single exposure, you have to factor in a) the odds the oral partner has oral herpes, b) if so, whether or not s/he is having an outbreak at the time of exposure, c) if no outbreak, whether asymptomatic viral shedding might be present, d) whether the genital partner already has HSV-1, which would make him or her immune (or at least highly resistant) to a new infection, and e) perhaps other factors, like the duration and vigor of exposure, perhaps circumcision status, and maybe still others.
I believe the final statistic you quote comes from the research study on valacyclovir to prevent HSV-2 transmission. That study provides the best data on herpes transmission risk. Among several hundred couples in which one person had genital HSV-2 and the other did not, who had unprotected vaginal sex an average of 2-3 times per week, transmission occurred in 5% of couples per year (in the placebo group, lower in those given valacyclovir). That works out to somewhere around 1 transmission for every 1,000 exposures. But these data are only applicable to HSV-2 and vaginal intercourse and says little about transmission of either virus by oral sex.
Summarizing all this, of the range of transmission probabilities you cite, I would put the average chance of acquiring genital HSV-1 in the 1 in 1,000 range for any particular episode of oral sex, perhaps as low as 1 in 10,000. But these are only educated guesses.
If you remain concerned, you could have a blood test to see if you already have antibodies to HSV-1. In the US, about half of all adults have positive results. If you are among them, you can consider yourself immune to a new HSV-1 infection whether by oral sex or any other route of transmission.
Regards-- HHH, MD