Hi -
AnnieBrooke has stated several times that there is no way to give an actual probability and why, and has answered all of your questions thoroughly and thoughtfully, with action steps you can take next if you decide you want to.
As there is really nowhere left for this conversation to go, we are closing this thread. If you decide to take a paternity test, either now or later, and want to update, let me know by using the Contact Us link at the bottom of every page or by sending me a private message (click on my name and then send me a message from the link on my profile), and we can enable the thread.
We don't mean to sound harsh. We are sure this is causing all kinds of anxiety, and hope you find the peace you seek.
*** Thread closed ***
I think you don't know with total certainty when ovulation was; all you know is when an app said ovulation was. Apps are based on averages and nothing else. Your seventh-week ultrasound that saw and measured the actual baby is better evidence. It suggests you conceived on the 15th. That is good news; it is not the 14th but it is not the 16th either. Unfortunately, it is uncomfortably close to the 16th, and when there are so few hours between what the ultrasound suggests is your conception date and what would be a possibility that the wrong guy is dad, you really cannot be sure. "It was only one time" means nothing when a guy ejaculates millions of sperm at once. "It was after ovulation" is not confirmed, it is just an assertion you have been making based on your app, which is based on average women's average cycles.
If I were in your shoes, what I would do? I'd have a come-to-Jesus meeting with my partner. Because he is too good a man not to know the true nature of our relationship and what is going on. He deserves to know what happened and what might happen as a result. He deserves to make up his own mind about how he feels about it rather than go along in ignorance and not even have the chance to make up his mind. (You say "I don't want to break his trust," but you had sex with someone else and are hiding it. Isn't that pretty much a textbook definition of having already broken his trust?) Do you think he wouldn't believe you if you said it was never going to happen again ever, and you are simply so sorry you did it that it can hardly be exaggerated? (If you feel that way, I mean?)
Failing the honest approach, if I just really really really really couldn't stand the idea of what might happen if I had to fess up, I guess my second choice would be to pony up the big bucks and do a pre-natal DNA test with Ravgen, testing Mr. Wrong's swab or blood sample and doing a 'discreet' test on the boyfriend. (Talk to Ravgen about how that is done.) I would see the high price as worth it for my peace of mind, and would be so glad to have tested both guys so I was sure. Then if the wrong guy was the dad, it would be time to confess to the boyfriend, and the chips would fall where they may. But if the right guy was the dad, I could sail on into life. Promising myself, of course, that in exchange for being able to never tell the guy what had happened, I would make him the happiest dad in the world forever, and never give him one moment's doubt about me and my love from now on out.
I think your boyfriend has a much better chance to be the dad. The baby being a girl is also supportive of that theory.
You should also understand, though, that you have a moral obligation to both men and to your baby to be sure. Unless the baby is the absolute image of your boyfriend and anyone could tell paternity by looking, it would be wrong of you to ask someone to support a baby if you are not sure.
It sounds like a good plan. Your boyfriend's odds are certainly greater. If you simply cannot tell by looking when the baby is born (hint: get some of your boyfriend's baby pictures, and compare a photograph of your baby to a photo of your boyfriend at the same age -- don't hold a photo up to the baby but do two photos side by side) anyway if you simply can't be sure, then do a DNA test with the other guy.
You asked "But if you had to guess just based off of what I have told you... do you think it is more than likely my boyfriends baby?" Here is what I said above already: "I think your boyfriend has a much better chance to be the dad. He had you covered in the right time frame. I think the other guy has a much worse chance to be the dad. He would have had to have sperm in his urethra when he got the erection with you, and your conception sounds (sounds, not is guaranteed) like it was a day earlier. But you can see, these are hairline margins, and the human body is full of surprises all the time." I might bet a hundred dollars that your boyfriend is the dad, but I wouldn't bet the farm.
Regarding a DNA test after the baby comes, if you are in the USA you will need one for legally saying the guy is the dad.
I've come across people with a one-day margin for error before and have always told them that the human body is not a machine and not a clock, lots of things that can happen that are unpredictable. When a woman has sex with two partners in the same menstrual month, it can be anyone's guess which sperm made it to the egg.
Hi, not enough information to give you an answer. From what info you give here, it could be a 50/50 chance, since your due date gives December 15th as your ovulation date.
Can you mention how you got your due date, and when?