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What are the chances I am the father?
Hello All,
I am wondering if you can help deduce if i am the father or not with the limited information that is available. The situation is, my now ex partner wont do a paternity test and i just need to know the chances if the baby is mine so i may need to be prepared later in time.
So her last menstural period ended was Feb4 2018. She had her first ultrasound(not sure if intravaginal) on mar27 (6 weeks and 4 days)which dated her conception date to Feb 9 or 10 which she can confirm she slept with somebody else who ejaculated inside her.(isnt earliest ovulation 10 days?)
Come May 4th, she has her second ultrasound which dates her(i think conception date) to 12 weeks and 6 days which dates it back to Feb3.
The dates i have had intercourse with her are feb1, feb4(ejaculated inside) and feb 6 and feb 11 and feb 18 all with the pull out method and possible pre-ejaculate inside.
on feb 20 she was sick and i assume from weakened immune system.
So what are the chances im the father?
I am wondering if you can help deduce if i am the father or not with the limited information that is available. The situation is, my now ex partner wont do a paternity test and i just need to know the chances if the baby is mine so i may need to be prepared later in time.
So her last menstural period ended was Feb4 2018. She had her first ultrasound(not sure if intravaginal) on mar27 (6 weeks and 4 days)which dated her conception date to Feb 9 or 10 which she can confirm she slept with somebody else who ejaculated inside her.(isnt earliest ovulation 10 days?)
Come May 4th, she has her second ultrasound which dates her(i think conception date) to 12 weeks and 6 days which dates it back to Feb3.
The dates i have had intercourse with her are feb1, feb4(ejaculated inside) and feb 6 and feb 11 and feb 18 all with the pull out method and possible pre-ejaculate inside.
on feb 20 she was sick and i assume from weakened immune system.
So what are the chances im the father?
COMMUNITY LEADER
A single seminal ejaculation produces something like 100 million sperm; two weeks abstinence does not change sperm motility overall since there are so many. Even someone who does not regularly masturbate can have a wet dream. I would challenge the statement that someone is not "the type" to masturbate.
COMMUNITY LEADER
Here is the thing about the testing.
Prenatal paternity testing used to be done only when there was another medical reason to do a procedure, which were, CVS or amniocentesis. A doctor would not order one of those procedures merely to find out who the father was, but a DNA test could be done in conjunction if there was an important reason to do CVS or an amnio (and finding out who the dad is, was not considered important.) Some women today do not know that prenatal DNA testing for paternity can be done without any invasive procedure. Today's DNA testing, if done before the baby is born, is done with a blood draw from the woman's arm, and either a blood draw or a cheek swab from the potential father(s). Sometimes in this forum we see women resist prenatal DNA tests because they think it means an invasive procedure, which carries some risk to the baby. Not so any more. And besides, no doctor would order a CVS or an amnio for that reason alone.
The other problem, though, is that the high cost of doing prenatal testing properly, has drawn charlatans to the field. So, even some women who might otherwise want to go ahead and test, resist testing because they have heard stories of the bad so-called labs out there who give wrong results, lose samples, or just mess up in some other way. And admittedly going to one of those labs would be a big mistake.
However, if the woman and both men test, and if they go to one of the two best labs out there for this kind of testing (which are, Ravgen and the DDC), the results are reliable. It can be worth the peace of mind for all three people, despite the high cost.
One more caveat is that once the baby is born, the courts will require a conventional DNA test (which is done with swabs from the mom, the baby, and the men) in order to have a legal determination of paternity. Prenatal testing is too new and has drawn too many charlatans to the field, for the courts to be confident in using its results for this determination. So even if the three of you did test, you'd all need to do it again when there are four of you. The good news is, post-natal tests are much cheaper.
I'm only going over this in such detail in case your friend is one of those who thinks a prenatal test carries risk to the pregnancy. It doesn't.
Good luck to you!
Prenatal paternity testing used to be done only when there was another medical reason to do a procedure, which were, CVS or amniocentesis. A doctor would not order one of those procedures merely to find out who the father was, but a DNA test could be done in conjunction if there was an important reason to do CVS or an amnio (and finding out who the dad is, was not considered important.) Some women today do not know that prenatal DNA testing for paternity can be done without any invasive procedure. Today's DNA testing, if done before the baby is born, is done with a blood draw from the woman's arm, and either a blood draw or a cheek swab from the potential father(s). Sometimes in this forum we see women resist prenatal DNA tests because they think it means an invasive procedure, which carries some risk to the baby. Not so any more. And besides, no doctor would order a CVS or an amnio for that reason alone.
The other problem, though, is that the high cost of doing prenatal testing properly, has drawn charlatans to the field. So, even some women who might otherwise want to go ahead and test, resist testing because they have heard stories of the bad so-called labs out there who give wrong results, lose samples, or just mess up in some other way. And admittedly going to one of those labs would be a big mistake.
However, if the woman and both men test, and if they go to one of the two best labs out there for this kind of testing (which are, Ravgen and the DDC), the results are reliable. It can be worth the peace of mind for all three people, despite the high cost.
One more caveat is that once the baby is born, the courts will require a conventional DNA test (which is done with swabs from the mom, the baby, and the men) in order to have a legal determination of paternity. Prenatal testing is too new and has drawn too many charlatans to the field, for the courts to be confident in using its results for this determination. So even if the three of you did test, you'd all need to do it again when there are four of you. The good news is, post-natal tests are much cheaper.
I'm only going over this in such detail in case your friend is one of those who thinks a prenatal test carries risk to the pregnancy. It doesn't.
Good luck to you!
1 Comments
Hi Annie,
I'm over on the other side of the world where there are kangaroos so the legalities are different. She isn't scared of the procedure but just scared of the results and I wont force her because she is going through enough at the moment.
The other gentleman isn't the type to masturbate so what are your thoughts on sperm motility after 2 weeks abstinence? Do you have any figures off the top of your head?
I'm over on the other side of the world where there are kangaroos so the legalities are different. She isn't scared of the procedure but just scared of the results and I wont force her because she is going through enough at the moment.
The other gentleman isn't the type to masturbate so what are your thoughts on sperm motility after 2 weeks abstinence? Do you have any figures off the top of your head?
COMMUNITY LEADER
I lean towards you.
2 Comments
"Pulling out" is not birth control, you can still have sperm in your urethra that comes out with the pre-ejaculatory fluid well before you pull out and ejaculate. Don't put a lot of weight on the fact that you pulled out.
And, if the sixth week ultrasound is correct, you are in the better spot, timing-wise. I have never heard of anyone being 2 days off in an ultrasound that early, unless something was wrong with the person reading the scan. (I'm talking about when the date of conception was known -- because the person did IVF -- and then they had a scan. Those early scans of IVF patients show the dates as right on the dot.)
There is no way to be certain without a DNA test, though. You and the other guy are too close together. Why not call Ravgen or the DDC and arrange a test with both you and him? Possibly, you, the woman, and the other guy could split the (high) cost three ways, it might make it do-able then. You could all go forward knowing for sure, if you do that.
In any case, when you do finally do a DNA test (it's a tenth as costly after the child is born but a long time to wait), be sure it is done at a lab recommended by the family courts in your area of jurisdiction for determining paternity, and be sure you and the other guy test. (It would even be a smart idea to witness each other doing the swabs and handing them to the lab tech, so you know there is no funny business.)
And, if the sixth week ultrasound is correct, you are in the better spot, timing-wise. I have never heard of anyone being 2 days off in an ultrasound that early, unless something was wrong with the person reading the scan. (I'm talking about when the date of conception was known -- because the person did IVF -- and then they had a scan. Those early scans of IVF patients show the dates as right on the dot.)
There is no way to be certain without a DNA test, though. You and the other guy are too close together. Why not call Ravgen or the DDC and arrange a test with both you and him? Possibly, you, the woman, and the other guy could split the (high) cost three ways, it might make it do-able then. You could all go forward knowing for sure, if you do that.
In any case, when you do finally do a DNA test (it's a tenth as costly after the child is born but a long time to wait), be sure it is done at a lab recommended by the family courts in your area of jurisdiction for determining paternity, and be sure you and the other guy test. (It would even be a smart idea to witness each other doing the swabs and handing them to the lab tech, so you know there is no funny business.)
Hi Annie.
Thank you again for your wisdom. For her own reasons(not financial), she does not want to take the test and I don't want to pressure her to do so. So I am just preparing for whatever happens.
Thank you again for your wisdom. For her own reasons(not financial), she does not want to take the test and I don't want to pressure her to do so. So I am just preparing for whatever happens.
COMMUNITY LEADER
If I had to guess, and a guess is all it would be, I'd think she got pregnant from the sex with you on the 18th. This is because (a) not all research thinks sperm can last 7 days in the woman's reproductive tract, and (b) the research that suggests sperm can last for 7 days also suggests it is not strong and viable enough by then to penetrate the egg. If the other man from February 17 had sperm in her reproductive tract, and IF the 23rd is when she did ovulate, that would be day 6 for him, making his odds worse. Yours would still be relatively fresh.
Sex on the 25th does have a chance, since even the earliest ultrasounds (sixth and seventh week), the doctors will say +/- 1-2 days for the margin for error. That's not the +/- 7 days that they say for the twelfth week, or the +/- 3 weeks they say at the end of pregnancy, but they do concede there might be a margin. Also, the egg can last up to 36 hours waiting to be fertilized.
One thing that might add to the argument that the dad is you is if, a little later in the pregnancy, you learn the baby is a boy. The Shettles method theorizes that male-carrying sperm swim fast but die within three days, and female-carrying sperm swim slower but live twice as long. If the baby is a boy, that would suggest the sex from the 25th over any other, given that she really did ovulate around the 23rd, of course. If the baby is a girl, it doesn't mean the opposite, though. In other words, a boy suggests you, a girl doesn't give a hint either way. I don't think the Shettles method has ever been rigorously tested in a scientific study, so take it for what it is.
Sex on the 25th does have a chance, since even the earliest ultrasounds (sixth and seventh week), the doctors will say +/- 1-2 days for the margin for error. That's not the +/- 7 days that they say for the twelfth week, or the +/- 3 weeks they say at the end of pregnancy, but they do concede there might be a margin. Also, the egg can last up to 36 hours waiting to be fertilized.
One thing that might add to the argument that the dad is you is if, a little later in the pregnancy, you learn the baby is a boy. The Shettles method theorizes that male-carrying sperm swim fast but die within three days, and female-carrying sperm swim slower but live twice as long. If the baby is a boy, that would suggest the sex from the 25th over any other, given that she really did ovulate around the 23rd, of course. If the baby is a girl, it doesn't mean the opposite, though. In other words, a boy suggests you, a girl doesn't give a hint either way. I don't think the Shettles method has ever been rigorously tested in a scientific study, so take it for what it is.
1 Comments
Hi Annie,
I can confirm I definitely did not ejaculate inside on the 18th.
If the other gentleman ejaculated on the night of the feb 17th and say the conception date was on the 21st instead of the 23rd to account to maximum error would mean that his sperm had survived the 3 days.
How does this compare to my time with her on the 25th if you had to put a number to it? i know it is still a guesstimate but would it lean towards the other man or myself?
I can confirm I definitely did not ejaculate inside on the 18th.
If the other gentleman ejaculated on the night of the feb 17th and say the conception date was on the 21st instead of the 23rd to account to maximum error would mean that his sperm had survived the 3 days.
How does this compare to my time with her on the 25th if you had to put a number to it? i know it is still a guesstimate but would it lean towards the other man or myself?
COMMUNITY LEADER
Did she have sex with the other person only on the 9th? Could she have had sex with anyone other than you around the 20th? It sounds like you are mistaking a GA count (gestational age) for a count that begins with conception. "Gestational age" is the 40 weeks that doctors use to count out the whole pregnancy time period, but the count begins on the first day of the woman's last menstrual period (or a computed first day, if her cycles are irregular), not at conception.
If her first ultrasound was for sure on March 27 (be sure to double-check this) and the doctor told her from the baby's measurements that she was 6 weeks 4 days then, that indicates a conception date of February 23, not February 9. If her second ultrasound was on May 4 and she was told she was 12 weeks 6 days, that points to conception on February 17, not February 3. (Twelfth-week ultrasounds are not as accurate as sixth-week ultrasounds for this kind of determination, so it isn't surprising that these numbers vary slightly.)
Pregnancy from conception to birth is 266 days long, but doctors use a count that is 280 days long with two weeks added at the front to reach back to the first day of a typical or average woman's last period. This is not because doctors think a woman is pregnant on the first day of her period, (they know she is not, she is having a period!) But it comes from the historic way of determining where a woman is in her pregnancy. In grandma's day, they did not have ultrasounds, so the only start point they did have to begin the count was the day she began bleeding when she had her most recent period. This kind of counting became ingrained and has maintained over the years, and is used by all medical personnel, by ultrasounds, by medical professors and medical textbooks. If a doctor said "6 weeks 4 days," he or she was using a GA count. This would mean that on that day, she was about 4 weeks 4 days from conception.
Obviously, what this means for you is that you could be the dad, from the sex on the 18th. If the guy from the 9th was a continuing partner, then the two of you should do a DNA test, when the baby is born if not before. But if you know for sure that you were her only partner after the 9th, it would suggest you are the most likely dad.
Why is she refusing a DNA test? There are DNA tests that can be done safely before the baby comes. They cost a boatload of money, and you have to be careful to go only to a top lab, because some of the cheaper ones out there will be glad to take your money and give you wrong results. The test is done by blood draw from the woman's arm and cheek swab from the men. If you do this, both likely dads should test, so one will get a clear "no" and the other will get a clear "yes," in other words, one test confirms the other. If she continues to refuse you, possibly you could find an ally in the other guy, who probably would like to know for sure too. If the two of you (or the three of you) could pay the cost in even shares, it would be more manageable. I would suggest Ravgen or the DDC for this kind of testing, and pretty much only if you both test.
If the cost of prenatal testing is too high, test after the baby comes, when it will only be about a tenth as expensive. You might need a lawyer's help, if she is mad enough at you. Again, this testing needs to be done with both guys. Also, it's not a bad idea to do it together, so you (and she) can see that the person there is not someone's look-alike buddy carrying his ID.
If the reason she is refusing a test is that you are pressuring her for an abortion, think again. This is her baby as much as it is from someone's sperm, and a much larger commitment, as she is going to carry it for nine months and face years of being a single mother after that. She has every right to this decision without pressure from a guy who just wanted some fun in the sack. Sorry, if this is the situation. The price of living in a time of free sexual activity beyond your grandfather's wildest dreams is that sometimes you have responsibilities.
You didn't write like you were trying to get out of it, but were trying to prepare. I would certainly be prepared, in your shoes, to find out you are the dad. If she kept on with her other partner, you only have a 50/50 chance, but be ready.
Good luck!
Annie
If her first ultrasound was for sure on March 27 (be sure to double-check this) and the doctor told her from the baby's measurements that she was 6 weeks 4 days then, that indicates a conception date of February 23, not February 9. If her second ultrasound was on May 4 and she was told she was 12 weeks 6 days, that points to conception on February 17, not February 3. (Twelfth-week ultrasounds are not as accurate as sixth-week ultrasounds for this kind of determination, so it isn't surprising that these numbers vary slightly.)
Pregnancy from conception to birth is 266 days long, but doctors use a count that is 280 days long with two weeks added at the front to reach back to the first day of a typical or average woman's last period. This is not because doctors think a woman is pregnant on the first day of her period, (they know she is not, she is having a period!) But it comes from the historic way of determining where a woman is in her pregnancy. In grandma's day, they did not have ultrasounds, so the only start point they did have to begin the count was the day she began bleeding when she had her most recent period. This kind of counting became ingrained and has maintained over the years, and is used by all medical personnel, by ultrasounds, by medical professors and medical textbooks. If a doctor said "6 weeks 4 days," he or she was using a GA count. This would mean that on that day, she was about 4 weeks 4 days from conception.
Obviously, what this means for you is that you could be the dad, from the sex on the 18th. If the guy from the 9th was a continuing partner, then the two of you should do a DNA test, when the baby is born if not before. But if you know for sure that you were her only partner after the 9th, it would suggest you are the most likely dad.
Why is she refusing a DNA test? There are DNA tests that can be done safely before the baby comes. They cost a boatload of money, and you have to be careful to go only to a top lab, because some of the cheaper ones out there will be glad to take your money and give you wrong results. The test is done by blood draw from the woman's arm and cheek swab from the men. If you do this, both likely dads should test, so one will get a clear "no" and the other will get a clear "yes," in other words, one test confirms the other. If she continues to refuse you, possibly you could find an ally in the other guy, who probably would like to know for sure too. If the two of you (or the three of you) could pay the cost in even shares, it would be more manageable. I would suggest Ravgen or the DDC for this kind of testing, and pretty much only if you both test.
If the cost of prenatal testing is too high, test after the baby comes, when it will only be about a tenth as expensive. You might need a lawyer's help, if she is mad enough at you. Again, this testing needs to be done with both guys. Also, it's not a bad idea to do it together, so you (and she) can see that the person there is not someone's look-alike buddy carrying his ID.
If the reason she is refusing a test is that you are pressuring her for an abortion, think again. This is her baby as much as it is from someone's sperm, and a much larger commitment, as she is going to carry it for nine months and face years of being a single mother after that. She has every right to this decision without pressure from a guy who just wanted some fun in the sack. Sorry, if this is the situation. The price of living in a time of free sexual activity beyond your grandfather's wildest dreams is that sometimes you have responsibilities.
You didn't write like you were trying to get out of it, but were trying to prepare. I would certainly be prepared, in your shoes, to find out you are the dad. If she kept on with her other partner, you only have a 50/50 chance, but be ready.
Good luck!
Annie
3 Comments
Hi Annie,
Thank you for the valuable information. It seems like I have new information which shifts their intercourse date to the 16th instead of the 9th which means it is right in the middle of ovulation which throws me out the window. In your professional opinion would you agree that there is a strong chance that i am not the father?
Thank you for the valuable information. It seems like I have new information which shifts their intercourse date to the 16th instead of the 9th which means it is right in the middle of ovulation which throws me out the window. In your professional opinion would you agree that there is a strong chance that i am not the father?
No, you had sex with her on the 18th. The first ultrasound (the sixth-week one) is most accurate for using to try to determine when ovulation and conception were, and it points to around the 23rd. (The twelfth-week ultrasound is too late, as they are +/- 7 days either way, by then.) Sorry, your chances are still very good; in fact, better than those of the other guy if he only had sex with her on the 16th and not again.
Hi Annie,
Dont be sorry if my chances are good. I dont mind either way.
I have some more information to put forward to solidify the case.
Her due date at 6 weeks was nov16 and at 12 weeks her due date changed to nov10.
The other man ejaculated inside her on the feb 17th (pm) to assume the closer date. I was with her on feb 18th and feb 25th but did not ejaculate inside. Since the 17th is about 6 days away from the 23rd and sperm can last up to 7 days. Would it still be a higher chance of myself or the other man? What do you think is the day range +/- form the 23rd from conception. do you think the sex from the 25th has a higher chance?
Thanks in advance.
Dont be sorry if my chances are good. I dont mind either way.
I have some more information to put forward to solidify the case.
Her due date at 6 weeks was nov16 and at 12 weeks her due date changed to nov10.
The other man ejaculated inside her on the feb 17th (pm) to assume the closer date. I was with her on feb 18th and feb 25th but did not ejaculate inside. Since the 17th is about 6 days away from the 23rd and sperm can last up to 7 days. Would it still be a higher chance of myself or the other man? What do you think is the day range +/- form the 23rd from conception. do you think the sex from the 25th has a higher chance?
Thanks in advance.
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