risk assement - is this correct??

[kayvan]

I posted a question a long time ago here. And have done well controlling the anxiety since then. But lately I have started to convince my self again I have HIV. Is my risk assessment correct?
this is a follow up to another question I had. Can you tell me if my risk assessment is correct?

chance a female prostitute in cancun has hiv (still dont believe its this low but ill just site wat u say)
1/1000
chance of receptive oral
1/20000
HIV test @ 4 months and DNA test @ 9 weeks, chance the test missed hiv=
1/1000
other random things, like I am circumsized had no stds except hsv1 (cold sores) and the fact I had no ARS symptoms
I just add 1/100 for all the other little things....

If I do the math this equals the chance I do have HIV @ about 1 in 2,000,000,000,000 ie 1 in about a trillion chance?? Is this true?? I know all these estimates are rough numbers but am i doing this correct?

And encase I did have unprotected anal with her. the chance would be some where around 1 in 10billion correct??

Now I now you guys never guarantee anything, but isn't this basically 100% ?? I know nothing is perfect but in theory could this happen, that I have HIV?

[kayvan]

Man I feel like I just got back handed by my father after throwing a temper tantrum haha. Which sometimes is what needs to happen. Sir I would like to apologize for trying to undermine you. That wasn't my incentive.

The only thing that keeps me fueled on this whole thing is this, if I have HIV, fine I'll deal with it. But I would much rather know and go on meds, then not know and spread it and die sooner. Also if I knew for sure I dont have it I just never wanna put my self at risk agian and never test again. Too much anxiety. Sorry these are what keeps me going on this, but for the better og my happiness and my my family I'm gonna just 100% faith in you know what your saying and just never test again and never put my self at risk and move on. Thank you sir.

[Edward W Hook, MD]

STOP!  You are wasting your time and mine.  I believe in science and statistics and you do not.

Your tests are negative on multiple occasions and at a time when we comfortably tell people they do not have HIV because they do not.  I bleieve and have confidence in your 3 month and 4 month results.  You do not have HIV.I will not play these what if games any more.  It really doesn't matter how many times you get tested or what sort of odds you fabricate to soothe your anxiety.  You don't have HIV.  Further questions will be deleted without comment.  EWH

[kayvan]

Thank you for analysis... Few things I think that got missed in the math would be I also had a negative Elisa @ 12 weeks and negative rapid @ 4 months... Also so lets say 10% CSW have in Cancun that's a 1 in 10 chance, there is a one in 10 chance I was with some with HIV. Wouldn't that alone be enough to test out to 6 months or even a year? as stated by the CDC?

Also so if there is a 1/10 she had hiv and 1/10,000 oral risk and 1/1000 chance I had a false negative's to this point wouldn't that come out to 1 in 100 million chance? Or am I doing something wrong here.

And I know what the chances of getting hit by lighting is, there are people who have been hit a few times by lighting. So I can't go by that assessment.

Doctor I want so bad to move onto this but I cant till the chance is zero (not essentially/effectively zero) but zero... I dont believe in statistics, because things happen, and if i could find out I do have HIV and got on therapy and live longer that would be better than dying in 10 years and spreading the virus...

Just for example, the chance that 2 brothers could play each other in a pro NFL football game on thanksgiving is 1 in a billion, could never happen right? Wrong well it happened this year. I'm just saying things happen. I need to know when my test will be 100% sure I don't have HIV. IS my yest @ 18weeks valid? do I have to wait for 6 months? 1 year? These are question I'll let you answer, thanks doc :)

[Edward W Hook, MD]

Your math is a bit hard to follow so I will re-do it in a way that works for me.

Chance that a CSW in Cancun had HIV, 10%, max.
Chance of getting HIV, if she was infected from oral sex, less than 1 in 10,000 (let's be conservative)
Chance that a PCR would miss HIV at 9 weeks, not really known, you state this is about 1% and that is probably in the right ball park.

Using these numbers alone, your chances of getting HIV are less than 1 in a million which is effectively zero. At the very least it is so low that you are more likely to get hit by lightening than to have HIV.

Bottom line, you don't have HIV.  Get over it your concerns and move on.  No need for further questions. You do not have HIV.  EWH