My original response above wasn't entirely clear. The lower test performance of rapid tests relates mostly to the early period of new HIV infections, not in longstanding infection. Others have also raised concerns after reading this thread. Please see the following new thread for a more detailed explanation of these issues:
http://www.medhelp.org/posts/HIV-Prevention/Accuracy-of-rapid-tests/show/1316320
Welcome to the forum, and aloha. (This reply originates from my place at Poipu Beach, Kaua'i.) Directly to your questions.
1) It is correct that more recent research has suggested a higher proportion of false negatives with rapid testing than previously realized. My recollection is that it's around 15%, i.e. meaning a negative result remains at least 85% reliable. However, the newer studies were rather small, and there is a large margin of error. To my knowledge the exact reasons are not known. However, false negative results do not occur repeatedly in the same person; so two negative results with rapid tests is virtually 100% reliable.
2) The window period ("time line") is about the same for the lab-based and rapid tests. 8 weeks usually is conclusive.
3) This has been explained before, but not for a while. It bears repeating. The reliability of test results is not dependent on the test alone, but depends on the overall risk context. Assume a worried person at low risk, let's say heterosexual exposure with a 1% chance of an infected partner and, if s/he is infected, 1 chance in 1000 of catching HIV. The chance that person will catch HIV is 0.01 x 0.001 = 0.00001, or 1 in 100,000. Test at 4 weeks, with a test with 90% reliability. With a negative result, the chance the person has HIV drops tenfold, to 1 in a million. Pretty good odds.
Now assume a much higher risk exposure, say a known infected partner and anal sex, which has a 1% chance of transmission. Before testing, the chance of infection is 1 in 100. Test at 4 weeks, 90% reliability, the infection chance is now 1 in 1,000. A lot better, but still much to high to stop testing. Test at 6-8 weeks, 99% test reliability: chance of infection is now 0.01 x 0.01 = 0.0001. One in 10,000 very good odds. But still maybe not high enough to relax. Such a person needs another test at 3+ months.
The higher the risk, the more important to have a test result that approaches 100% certainty. The lower the risk, the greater the confidence in a negative result even if done early. Same test, different context, and therefore different reliability of results.
I hope this helps. Best wishes-- HHH, MD
It makes no difference whether or not Dr. Hook or I have seen someone with seroconversion delayed beyond 8 weeks. It can happen, but it's very rare.
As to your second question, I can only shake my head in wonder. We don't insist on very much from questioners, but we do expect them to read our replies. Did the odds calculations above make no difference at all? I don't know how to explain it any more clearly and I'm not going to try.
This thread is over. I will delete any further anxiety-driven comments without reply.
Hi Dr. Handsfield,
Is it true that neither yourself nor Dr. Hook has ever seen a negative test turn positive after 8 weeks? Please answer this question for me.
And if so, after a possible exposure/risk, would a standard lab based test after 8 weeks be conclusive for all practical purposes of being assured that one did not acquire hiv?
Mahalo for your time and knowledge,
Bill
Hi Dr. Handsfield,
Aloha and thank you for your informative reply. Do you reside on Kaui? I am in Oahu.
Sorry, just a few more questions for clarification based on the information you provided.
1. Is it correct that if 2 Oraquick Advance rapid tests are done at different times after 8 weeks the possiblility of a false negative can be ruled out? Is the fingerstick test better than oral fluid? And does the incidence of increased false negatives only apply to rapid tests and not standard lab-based tests?
2. Is it correct that neither yourself, Dr. Hook, or any other experts have not seen a negative rapid or standard lab-based test turn positive after 8 weeks regardless of the risk involved?
3. It seems that the term "conclusive" relates to mathematical odds and that the closer to 3 months the closer the test approaches 100% reliablility, even though there has not been a negative result turning positive after 8 weeks.
Once again, mahalo for all of your help, Bill.