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Risk calculation
Hello.
First of all i want to thank this great forum for the opportunity.I´ve been reading it for years and this is the first time i post a question.
I know i should get tested, this much is obvious.I just can´t ( for now) gather the strenght and courage to do so and therefore i need this forum´s help.
For the past 4 years i´ve been through a bitter divorce and depression.In around 40 different instances i had sex with high end escorts, all of them in seemingly good health.In all of these instances, i had for a partial time had unprotected vaginal and oral sex with them, in most cases for a couple of minutes or so before i put condoms on, but in a few cases for longer than that. Really really stupid, i know.This only happened with high end escorts, in Brazil and the USA.
It´s been 6 months since my life is back on track and i ceased this reckless behaviour.
Some further information: I am a 35 year male, circumcized, and have never experienced anything out of ordinary when it comes to symptoms of any STDs, as far as i know ( i know they can be asymptomatic)
Since i can´t gather the strenght and courage to test, i´ve been trying to calculate my chance of being infected:
My rough calculation: 40 ( times of exposure) x 1/2000 ( chance per exposure) x 0,5 ( since im circuncised) x 1/20 ( controlling for the fact that the girls may not be HIV positive, so im giving a 5% chance for that)
Result: 1/2000 or 0,05%
Would you agree with these calculations?
Once again thanks so much for any peace of mind you might give me and others in similar situations.
Fernando
This discussion is related to Disclaimer - Please Read before Posting.
First of all i want to thank this great forum for the opportunity.I´ve been reading it for years and this is the first time i post a question.
I know i should get tested, this much is obvious.I just can´t ( for now) gather the strenght and courage to do so and therefore i need this forum´s help.
For the past 4 years i´ve been through a bitter divorce and depression.In around 40 different instances i had sex with high end escorts, all of them in seemingly good health.In all of these instances, i had for a partial time had unprotected vaginal and oral sex with them, in most cases for a couple of minutes or so before i put condoms on, but in a few cases for longer than that. Really really stupid, i know.This only happened with high end escorts, in Brazil and the USA.
It´s been 6 months since my life is back on track and i ceased this reckless behaviour.
Some further information: I am a 35 year male, circumcized, and have never experienced anything out of ordinary when it comes to symptoms of any STDs, as far as i know ( i know they can be asymptomatic)
Since i can´t gather the strenght and courage to test, i´ve been trying to calculate my chance of being infected:
My rough calculation: 40 ( times of exposure) x 1/2000 ( chance per exposure) x 0,5 ( since im circuncised) x 1/20 ( controlling for the fact that the girls may not be HIV positive, so im giving a 5% chance for that)
Result: 1/2000 or 0,05%
Would you agree with these calculations?
Once again thanks so much for any peace of mind you might give me and others in similar situations.
Fernando
This discussion is related to Disclaimer - Please Read before Posting.
NOTHING can ever be attributed to HIV until AFTER a person is diagnosed. And only a test can determine a person's status. Symptoms don't mean anything and are never used for diagnosis. Furthermore, I have never heard of a fistula being related to HIV even if a person were positive.
You just have to test. Plain and simple.
You just have to test. Plain and simple.
1 Comments
So i finally gathered the courage to test and thankfully everything normal: cbc normal, hiv and hepatitis free.
Thank you for your help. I will act more carefully from now on, don´t wanna go through this again.
Thank you for your help. I will act more carefully from now on, don´t wanna go through this again.
What about the fistula in my gun next to my root canal? Is it indicative of anything?
"Result: 1/2000 or 0,05%
Would you agree with these calculations? "
Those numbers are very general and can change. For example a person's viral load or the presence of other STDs can change the amount of risk. Yes, compared to anal intercourse vaginal intercourse has less risk, but it's not an odds game. You just have to get tested.
If it has already been six months since your last exposure and you are sure that you haven't had any other risky encounters since then, just take an antibody test any time now for a conclusive result.
Would you agree with these calculations? "
Those numbers are very general and can change. For example a person's viral load or the presence of other STDs can change the amount of risk. Yes, compared to anal intercourse vaginal intercourse has less risk, but it's not an odds game. You just have to get tested.
If it has already been six months since your last exposure and you are sure that you haven't had any other risky encounters since then, just take an antibody test any time now for a conclusive result.
Sorry, just a quick add on: for the past 15 years i have had a root canal..since around 2 years ago i noticed a painless spot in my gum right next to my root canal tooth. Sometimes it inflames a bit and then gets back to ''normal'', with just a red tiny spot back in my gun next to the tooth.
My dentist mentioned this might be '' c reactive protein'' and told me to do some x-rays ( which i haven´t got the results yet) and this lead me to sleepless nights..i don´t know if this adds to my risk or not.
My dentist mentioned this might be '' c reactive protein'' and told me to do some x-rays ( which i haven´t got the results yet) and this lead me to sleepless nights..i don´t know if this adds to my risk or not.
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