As I look closer at this Ain Shams U. study published in Hepatology 2007, the goofier it looks. If I take a weighted average of the three variable length treatment arms, I get 68% SVR, which is more than the control arm of 58%. But all arms got the same drugs, the only difference being shorter treatment for RVR and EVR. Weird!
3tx: but one needs to consider that pegylated interferon alone can give a more than 80% SVR for type 4
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That appears only to hold true for RVRs (group A). This study suggests overall SVR rates between 32.4% and 54.9%, depending on sub type, with the 54.9% sub-type the one most prevelant in Egypt where I believe they trialed Alinia. Yes, slightly better results than with genotype 1, but a far cry from the 80% figure, if that was meant to be an overall figure -- but maybe I just read it wrong.
http://www.hivandhepatitis.com/hep_c/news/2007/071007_b.html
The following was posted on yahoo finance -vertx by pinvestment
"it is amazing what people will latch on to
it will be interesting to see what VRTX has to say tonight as the street.com says it is holding an investor meeting tonight and will report additional data tomorrow morning
but one needs to consider that pegylated interferon alone can give a more than 80% SVR for type 4
so the new data that is considered to be so damaging for VRTX is actually for a genotype of HepC that is already very easy to treat with interferon alone
check it out for yourself
Pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin in patients with genotype 4 chronic hepatitis C: The role of rapid and early virologic response.
Kamal SM, El Kamary SS, Shardell MD, Hashem M, Ahmed IN, Muhammadi M, Sayed K, Moustafa A, Hakem SA, Ibrahiem A, Moniem M, Mansour H, Abdelaziz M.
Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt.
In patients chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 4, the optimum duration of therapy and the predictors of sustained virologic response (SVR) have not been adequately determined. In this study, 358 patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 4 were randomly assigned to pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) alpha-2b (1.5 mug/kg/week) plus oral ribavirin (10.6 mg/kg/day) for a fixed duration of 48 weeks (control group, n = 50) or for a variable duration (n = 318). In the variable-duration group, patients with undetectable HCV RNA at week 4 were treated for 24 weeks (group A, n = 69), patients with undetectable HCV RNA at week 12 were treated for 36 weeks (group B, n = 79), and the rest of the patients were treated for 48 weeks (group C, n = 160). The primary endpoint was SVR (undetectable HCV RNA 24 weeks after treatment cessation). Groups A-C and the control group had SVR rates of 86%, 76%, 56%, and 58%, respectively. After the study was controlled for predictors, a low baseline histologic grade and stage were associated with SVR (P < 0.029) in all groups. In addition, among patients in group C, older age (P = 0.04), a higher baseline body mass index (P = 0.013), and low baseline HCV RNA (P < 0.001) were also associated with SVR attainment. The incidence of adverse events and the rate of discontinuation were higher in patients in the variable-duration and fixed-duration groups treated for 48 weeks. Conclusion: In patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 4 and undetectable HCV RNA at weeks 4 and 12, treatment with PEG-IFN alpha-2b and ribavirin for 24 weeks and 36 weeks, respectively, is sufficient. (HEPATOLOGY 2007.). "
and off-label money is money too. Some nice reports here and there work well.
We compare apples and pears by looking to different genotypes, patient populations, and conformity levels to GCP.
SVR-rate from SOC is 70% in Genotype 1, just creat a nice design:
Gastroenterol Clin Biol. 2007 Aug-Sep;31(8-9 Pt 3):20-8:
Larrey D, Couzigou P, Denis J.
The treatment of chronic hepatitis C, now well codified with the association of a pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin, allows to obtain a prolonged virological response in more than half of the cases. The results are even better and reach about 70% of success when the treatment is optimized.
Nevertheless, I am excited to read the report about answers to critical questions from the Boston meeting.
Best regards, Drofi
You are right to be skeptical. These results raise questions that need to be addressed, I am of the opinion that if it can't hurt to add it to SOC, then I want to add it. I am waiting with bated breath to see what HR has to report on it from the conference. Hope he posts as soon as he can.
I have some further Alinia observations, based on the above article and the original post in this thread. The above article showed standard of care achieving SVR of 55% in Egyptian genotype 4 patients. The control group in the the Alinia study only achieved 43%, which is a huge difference and would make me wonder about the integrity of the study.
The Alinia study reported 79% SVR at 12 weeks, which could decline as it reaches 24 weeks. More importantly though you have to wonder how does 79% for Genotype 4 translate to SVR for genotype 1? Certainly the success for geno 1 would be less, but how much? On top of that, there is the questionable integrity of the study.
Personally, I have a lot of questions about the Alinia study. Why did they go to Egypt, where standards for the trial are more lax? Why Genotype 4, when every other major drug seems to start with 1? Were they simply trying to get some headlines so they could get some off-label use?
I would have much more confidence in a company that started trials in Europe or the USA with genotype 1 patients.
This whole thing reminds me of leatrile clinics in Tijuana for cancer patients.