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Can someone explain this stat for hsv2 transmission please?
Came across this in the experts forum by Dr. Edward W Hook:
"Most exposures to infected partners do not lead to infection. Less than 1 in 10,000 exposures lead to infection when the partner is asymptomatic"
How does this align with the long running 1500 couple study that showed a 96% non transmission rate by doing nothing and just avoiding sex while an outbreak is present. Also the valtrex efficacy study that showed another 50% reduction in tranmission rate bringing it to 98% and with condoms to 99%. There is also the 6 month study on women that showed that while on anti suppressive there only had detectable symptomless viral shedding on .4% of days which is very low....
Is it because these studies were annual transmission rates assuming sex twice a week versus a one off exposure? How does this equate with the 1 in 10,000 chance of tranmission quoted by the expert?
Thanks
"Most exposures to infected partners do not lead to infection. Less than 1 in 10,000 exposures lead to infection when the partner is asymptomatic"
How does this align with the long running 1500 couple study that showed a 96% non transmission rate by doing nothing and just avoiding sex while an outbreak is present. Also the valtrex efficacy study that showed another 50% reduction in tranmission rate bringing it to 98% and with condoms to 99%. There is also the 6 month study on women that showed that while on anti suppressive there only had detectable symptomless viral shedding on .4% of days which is very low....
Is it because these studies were annual transmission rates assuming sex twice a week versus a one off exposure? How does this equate with the 1 in 10,000 chance of tranmission quoted by the expert?
Thanks
I think you're overplaying the comment a bit. He is a doctor and not a mathematician or statistician. He was providing an approximate opinion based on his collective knowledge. There is no specific study I am aware of that concludes with this figure. Unfortunately there are a wide range of interpretations and a wide range of possible transmission probabilities.
Maybe so but this doc is a recognized expert in the field so I'm sure there is a solid basis to his data....life360, have u a view by any chance or is there anyone else that understands the 1 in 10,000 figure he quoted? I would just like to understand where he got this figure from or arrived at this tranmission rate...
Someone surely can explain?
Someone surely can explain?
I agree the 1 in 10,000 is not quite replicated in the maths I have seen people put forward on this and similar websites.
I think you are referring to the female to male transmission between a couple with full knowledge of the condition over a year of sex.
An estimate is therefore 4% divided by 100 sexual episodes in a year, but maybe a few less as we are talking longer term couples in that study. If we do this then it is a 0.04% chance per episode or 1 in 2,500. This is not quite right I believe as the sexual episodes happen one after the other and it takes just once to be infected, but this maths is close enough.
One issue I am interested in is the statistic that says 70% of transmissions occur during asymptomatic shedding. I am not sure how this is known, given supposedly 80% of people with the infection suggest they are not aware of it. For these careful couples in the studies that lead to a 1 in 2,500 chance of transmission I wonder how many of those are during unknown or unrecognized outbreaks.
I think you are referring to the female to male transmission between a couple with full knowledge of the condition over a year of sex.
An estimate is therefore 4% divided by 100 sexual episodes in a year, but maybe a few less as we are talking longer term couples in that study. If we do this then it is a 0.04% chance per episode or 1 in 2,500. This is not quite right I believe as the sexual episodes happen one after the other and it takes just once to be infected, but this maths is close enough.
One issue I am interested in is the statistic that says 70% of transmissions occur during asymptomatic shedding. I am not sure how this is known, given supposedly 80% of people with the infection suggest they are not aware of it. For these careful couples in the studies that lead to a 1 in 2,500 chance of transmission I wonder how many of those are during unknown or unrecognized outbreaks.
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Herpes spreads by oral, vaginal and anal sex.
Herpes sores blister, then burst, scab and heal.
STIs are the most common cause of genital sores.
Millions of people are diagnosed with STDs in the U.S. each year.
STDs can't be transmitted by casual contact, like hugging or touching.
Syphilis is an STD that is transmitted by oral, genital and anal sex.
