Transmission Rates

[LL223]

I have read several different post by med professionals and experts.  some stating that the risk of transmission of hsv2 is about 4%  having sex 2-3 times per week without suppression or condoms in the absence of leasion others that say there is an 8-10% risk for women in the same exact situation.  Which number is correct?  If 8-10% is correct where does the 4% come from? Also since hsv 2 sheds asymtomatically  about 15-20% of the time and ghsv sheds about 3-5% of the time is it safe to estimate that transmision of genital hsv in the absence of lesions is less than 1% or .5% or even less?
For hsv2 are there any studies that tell what chance of transmission is with a lesion  present and the chance when its asymptomattic?

[Tramp1974]

Hi Grace!  I have read some of your posts here & you seem pretty informed...so I thought I would ask your input.  All of the Valtrex data seems to focus on reduction of transmission  for people with symptoms.

  Is there any data for the transmission risks of people who have always been asymptomatic and use Valtrex and condom (every time during sex).  If the risk of transmission is 1%  from asymptomatic  female to male ...what would that be for a female who has never shown symptoms?

Thanks so much!!

[gracefromHHP]

both vary in their shedding patterns from ob to ob and person to person. A recent study on hsv2 that involved pcr swabbing 4x/day showed that sometimes shedding literally is just hours.

[LL223]

based on studies when ghsv1 is shedding asymptomatically does it shed for several days in a row  on average or a day here a day there? (typically)
what about hsv2?

[gracefromHHP]

when you are only contagious on average less than a dozen days total out of the entire year, even if your partner is hsv1 negative, the odds of transmitting genital hsv1 to them is incredibly low.  The risk of hsv2 transmission is very low overall and that sheds 3-5x more often than hsv1 genitally does.  

[LL223]

i guess im just trying to assess risk.  opinion wise do professionals or experts have an idea?  i know there are know clear studies on hsv1.  

[gracefromHHP]

as I posted to you a few months ago, we don't have those sorts of transmission stats for hsv1 genitally like we do have for hsv2.

the stats for hsv2 you posted about are completely different from one another.  The overall risk of a discordant couple of hsv2 being transmitted to the uninfected partner is about 5%/year. That's regardless of the gender of the uninfected partner. The 8-10% risk is for hsv2 transmission to females.  the 4% risk of infection is for uninfected males from a hsv2+ female partner.  

hope that helps to clear up some of the numbers for you :)

grace

[LL223]

I was referring to ghsv1 when stating the 3-5% asymptomattic sheddding.