Welcome the forum.
The first reason is the correct one. HIV simply is inefficiently transmitted, so it is statistically unlikely that there will be sufficient virus exposure for any one sexual event. For anal sex without a condom, from an infected insertive partner (top) the chance of transmission to the receptive partner (bottom) averages somewhere around once for every 100-200 exposures. In the opposite direction, if the anal partner is infected, it averages somewhere around 1 chance in 500. For unprotected vaginal sex, it's around 1 in 1,000 to 2,000 per exposure. For oral it's 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 20,000 -- and some experts believe such transmission never occurs from mouth to penis or by cunnilingus.
For these reasons, it is uncommon for someone to get infected after any single exposure. Of course it can happen -- it just doesn't occur very often. In STD clinics like the ones where Dr. Hook and I work, we almost never see anyone with HIV after a single high risk exposure. All the people found to be HIV positive have had opportunities for many exposures -- often hundreds or thousands of them. This is also why in the 6+ years since this forum started, no questioner ever described an exposure that concerned them and later returned to report that s/he had caught HIV. (Once someone reported he caught HIV, but later admitted he was lying about his positive test result.)
Here is a thread that discusses STD/HIV transmission in detail, explaining the scientific reasons for inefficient transmission. Start reading with the folllow-up comments that start December 14:
http://www.medhelp.org/posts/show/1119533
Regards-- HHH, MD