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Eurozone warned 'severe recession' looming
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Tue May 22, 2012 4:14 AM EDT
economy, world, world-news, economic-cooperation
Greg Keller, AP Business Writer
A woman walks past a closed-down travel agency plastered with concert posters in Madrid Monday May 21, 2012. Spain's economy minister de Guindos said the Spanish economy, which has contracted by 0.3 percent in each of the past two quarters, will shrink by about the same amount in the second quarter of 2012. The forecast is for it to decline 1.7 percent for the year. Unemployment stands at a staggering 24.4 percent, and exceeds 50 percent for people under age 25.(AP Photo/Paul White)
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PARIS — The 17-country eurozone risks falling into a "severe recession," the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned on Tuesday, as it called on governments and Europe's central bank to act quickly to keep the slowdown from dragging down the global economy.
OECD Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan warned the eurozone economy could contract by as much as 2 percent this year, a figure that the Paris-based think tank had laid out as its worst-case scenario in November.
In its twice-yearly global economic outlook, the OECD — which comprises the world's most developed economies — said its average forecast was for the eurozone economy to shrink 0.1 percent this year and grow a mere 0.9 percent in 2013.
"Today we see the situation in the euro area close to the possible downside scenario" in the OECD's November report, "which if materializing could lead to a severe recession in the euro area and with spillovers in the rest of the world," Padoan told reporters before the report's release.
The report forecasts Europe falling further behind other countries, particularly the United States, whose economy is expected to grow 2.4 percent this year and 2.6 percent next.
"There is now a diverging trend between the euro area and the U.S., where the U.S. is picking up more strongly while the euro area is lagging behind," Padoan said.
Europe itself is increasingly split between a wealthier north continuing to grow and a southern rim that is sliding deeper into recession, the OECD figures show.
Germany, Europe's largest economy, will accelerate to 2 percent growth next year after 1.2 percent growth in 2012, while France, the eurozone's second-largest economy, will expand 1.2 percent next year after 0.6 percent growth this year, the OECD said.
Italy's economy, by contrast, will shrink 1.7 percent this year and 0.4 percent in 2013, the OECD forecast. Spain is also set to remain mired in recession, with contraction of 1.6 percent this year and 0.8 percent next.
Padoan called on eurozone leaders to adopt a "growth compact" to promote growth even while reducing deficits. French President Francois Hollande has made securing such a pact the focus of his European diplomacy in the first weeks of his administration.
So-called eurobonds — debt issued jointly by countries in the currency bloc — could be used to recapitalize banks, Padoan said. He also reiterated his call of six months ago for the ECB to do more to stem Europe's crisis.
The ECB has an "essential" role to play in solving Europe's crisis, Padoan said, both by using its balance sheet firepower to shore up banks and by lowering interest rates. The ECB should also consider renewing the "unconventional measures" it used last year such as buying up government bonds, "if there is need to cope with contagion problems," Padoan said.
Asian economies will also do better than Europe, the OECD predicted. Japan is forecast to grow 2 percent this year and slow down to 1.5 percent in 2013, while China is expected to accelerate from 8.2 percent to 9.3 percent.
Despite their growth downgrades for Europe, the OECD's figures are more optimistic than those of the International Monetary Fund. Last month the IMF predicted Europe's economy would shrink 0.3 percent this year, with the U.S. expanding 2.1 percent.
http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2012/05/22/11805218-eurozone-warned-severe-recession-looming
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– My Groups:Clipping...PrintEurozone warned 'severe recession' looming
Tue May 22, 2012 4:14 AM EDT
economy, world, world-news, economic-cooperation
Greg Keller, AP Business Writer
A woman walks past a closed-down travel agency plastered with concert posters in Madrid Monday May 21, 2012. Spain's economy minister de Guindos said the Spanish economy, which has contracted by 0.3 percent in each of the past two quarters, will shrink by about the same amount in the second quarter of 2012. The forecast is for it to decline 1.7 percent for the year. Unemployment stands at a staggering 24.4 percent, and exceeds 50 percent for people under age 25.(AP Photo/Paul White)
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PARIS — The 17-country eurozone risks falling into a "severe recession," the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned on Tuesday, as it called on governments and Europe's central bank to act quickly to keep the slowdown from dragging down the global economy.
OECD Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan warned the eurozone economy could contract by as much as 2 percent this year, a figure that the Paris-based think tank had laid out as its worst-case scenario in November.
In its twice-yearly global economic outlook, the OECD — which comprises the world's most developed economies — said its average forecast was for the eurozone economy to shrink 0.1 percent this year and grow a mere 0.9 percent in 2013.
"Today we see the situation in the euro area close to the possible downside scenario" in the OECD's November report, "which if materializing could lead to a severe recession in the euro area and with spillovers in the rest of the world," Padoan told reporters before the report's release.
The report forecasts Europe falling further behind other countries, particularly the United States, whose economy is expected to grow 2.4 percent this year and 2.6 percent next.
"There is now a diverging trend between the euro area and the U.S., where the U.S. is picking up more strongly while the euro area is lagging behind," Padoan said.
Europe itself is increasingly split between a wealthier north continuing to grow and a southern rim that is sliding deeper into recession, the OECD figures show.
Germany, Europe's largest economy, will accelerate to 2 percent growth next year after 1.2 percent growth in 2012, while France, the eurozone's second-largest economy, will expand 1.2 percent next year after 0.6 percent growth this year, the OECD said.
Italy's economy, by contrast, will shrink 1.7 percent this year and 0.4 percent in 2013, the OECD forecast. Spain is also set to remain mired in recession, with contraction of 1.6 percent this year and 0.8 percent next.
Padoan called on eurozone leaders to adopt a "growth compact" to promote growth even while reducing deficits. French President Francois Hollande has made securing such a pact the focus of his European diplomacy in the first weeks of his administration.
So-called eurobonds — debt issued jointly by countries in the currency bloc — could be used to recapitalize banks, Padoan said. He also reiterated his call of six months ago for the ECB to do more to stem Europe's crisis.
The ECB has an "essential" role to play in solving Europe's crisis, Padoan said, both by using its balance sheet firepower to shore up banks and by lowering interest rates. The ECB should also consider renewing the "unconventional measures" it used last year such as buying up government bonds, "if there is need to cope with contagion problems," Padoan said.
Asian economies will also do better than Europe, the OECD predicted. Japan is forecast to grow 2 percent this year and slow down to 1.5 percent in 2013, while China is expected to accelerate from 8.2 percent to 9.3 percent.
Despite their growth downgrades for Europe, the OECD's figures are more optimistic than those of the International Monetary Fund. Last month the IMF predicted Europe's economy would shrink 0.3 percent this year, with the U.S. expanding 2.1 percent.
http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2012/05/22/11805218-eurozone-warned-severe-recession-looming
There are a lot of people who have convinced themselves that they cannot pull themselves up by the boot straps and get back after it. Obviously, some folks are disabled and would be limited in what they can do. But some aren't and those are the people who are becoming accustomed to the government "providing" for them.
I see it all spinning out of control. It's out of control now, so much so that our brilliant minds have no idea where to start to fix it, and remain employed by keeping this crap a topic of discussion in the news and on boards like this. None of these people will jump on sensitive issues like this... to almost half of the nation at least, this guy (these people) will look like giant a-holes. Instead, "send in another infusion and we'll get to that next session.... in about 6 weeks'.
Whats the solution? Vote these do nothings out of office? Great, then we can hope for the new comers to come in and figure it out.... I'm all for voting until we can get it right, but I think we need to be able on a state level to cast special ballots to remove our national reps when we feel they are doing a horrible job. Popular vote... that's it. The recourse we have now ***** and it costs us money. And I am tired of hearing that it "it takes time". Horse $hit.... get your a$$ in there, find a cause and beat it into the ground. Fix something....
I see it all spinning out of control. It's out of control now, so much so that our brilliant minds have no idea where to start to fix it, and remain employed by keeping this crap a topic of discussion in the news and on boards like this. None of these people will jump on sensitive issues like this... to almost half of the nation at least, this guy (these people) will look like giant a-holes. Instead, "send in another infusion and we'll get to that next session.... in about 6 weeks'.
Whats the solution? Vote these do nothings out of office? Great, then we can hope for the new comers to come in and figure it out.... I'm all for voting until we can get it right, but I think we need to be able on a state level to cast special ballots to remove our national reps when we feel they are doing a horrible job. Popular vote... that's it. The recourse we have now ***** and it costs us money. And I am tired of hearing that it "it takes time". Horse $hit.... get your a$$ in there, find a cause and beat it into the ground. Fix something....
"... LMNO, I hate to burst your bubble friend, but your paying the lowest taxes in 60 years. Look it up if you dont believe me..."
Since I'm only 40 y/o, all I know is what has been happening to ME in MY tax life.
Sure, taxes may have been lower 60 years ago, but RIGHT NOW, at THIS very moment, I'm paying a f*ckload of taxes, and I'm tired of hearing from the Left that I'm not paying enough, and that my taxes need to go up.
My favorite thing, is when my sister tells me that I make enough money to live on, and why don't I give the rest of it to those less fortunate than myself.
I'm with Brice on this one... I see us heading to Socialism within the next decade. Maybe not full'blown Socialism, but a derivative.
Since I'm only 40 y/o, all I know is what has been happening to ME in MY tax life.
Sure, taxes may have been lower 60 years ago, but RIGHT NOW, at THIS very moment, I'm paying a f*ckload of taxes, and I'm tired of hearing from the Left that I'm not paying enough, and that my taxes need to go up.
My favorite thing, is when my sister tells me that I make enough money to live on, and why don't I give the rest of it to those less fortunate than myself.
I'm with Brice on this one... I see us heading to Socialism within the next decade. Maybe not full'blown Socialism, but a derivative.
Conspiracy theory: "Make people dependent on the government...." I'm starting to believe that we will be smack dab in the middle of socialism within the next decade or two... More and more people are becoming dependent on the government and this current economic crisis is no help....
You can tell me that there are people that want out of their current economic disaster. Hell, I believe it. But I also know that there are people sitting around and working the system for all its worth. As you mentioned, the system needs a major overhaul.... but.... but.... you've got people dependent on the system now. So now what? What do you do with those that are "dependent"?
I know of 2 people. One currently milking the system and the other that eventually got pushed out of the system. I'm not for sure how they got her out of the system... this person lacks all ambition. The system paid for her education.. and associates degree that took her over 4 years to accomplish. They also subsidized food, housing, and utilities while she was "going to school".
The other guy is receiving "disability". He injured himself on the job. He's had a surgery to repair the injury, but did not listen to the doctor and began recreating about 3 weeks post op, and decided to forgo the necessary rehabilitation. Now, his shoulder ***** and he has about 55-60% usage of it. The state has offered to "retrain" him, but he cannot decide what to do. He is reluctant to go find a job right now because he is making more money on "disability" than he would in the job market.... so he is just milking it. (This guy is expecting to have someone offer him a job for about $60k a year, that he really doesn't have to do anything in order to get that money.) It's pitiful....
You can tell me that there are people that want out of their current economic disaster. Hell, I believe it. But I also know that there are people sitting around and working the system for all its worth. As you mentioned, the system needs a major overhaul.... but.... but.... you've got people dependent on the system now. So now what? What do you do with those that are "dependent"?
I know of 2 people. One currently milking the system and the other that eventually got pushed out of the system. I'm not for sure how they got her out of the system... this person lacks all ambition. The system paid for her education.. and associates degree that took her over 4 years to accomplish. They also subsidized food, housing, and utilities while she was "going to school".
The other guy is receiving "disability". He injured himself on the job. He's had a surgery to repair the injury, but did not listen to the doctor and began recreating about 3 weeks post op, and decided to forgo the necessary rehabilitation. Now, his shoulder ***** and he has about 55-60% usage of it. The state has offered to "retrain" him, but he cannot decide what to do. He is reluctant to go find a job right now because he is making more money on "disability" than he would in the job market.... so he is just milking it. (This guy is expecting to have someone offer him a job for about $60k a year, that he really doesn't have to do anything in order to get that money.) It's pitiful....
you know what's sad...that doesn't even shock me anymore. I had a women hit me up for money that had more in her bank account then I do. She didn't care...if she can get it free, she will. She wanted help in paying her damage deposit. Nerve huh.
I think you might be surprised at how many folks want out of their situation. It's complicated. For so many families intense poverty has become generational and so many just cannot see any way out. Others have just given up hope. Our system (which is almost identical to yours) needs an overhaul. I would much rather assist someone to get real skills or job retraining, help with daycare costs, subsidize rents, etc. then to just have them stay on welfare. Yes, those programs exist, but if more money went into them and less into just helping people exist, we would begin to see change. You would be amazed at how hard I am on clients - many of us that do as I do are. We push hard. But the gov't system is set up to keep people down. It isn't intentional, it's just easier then it is to overhaul and make changes.
Start working on intense poverty and you see a positive impact on economic growth and health as well. You would be creating more taxpayers and more folks spending as well. It is an area that needs to be addressed, and not just by handing out a cheque. I would never ever be pro letting people just starve and doing away with social programs. But a huge overhaul? Heck yeah. Of course, the people that make these policies are typically just sitting in an office somewhere. They aren't front line like me, and they never actually ask us what we think...I guess that would make too much sense. Can you tell I'm frustrated?
Start working on intense poverty and you see a positive impact on economic growth and health as well. You would be creating more taxpayers and more folks spending as well. It is an area that needs to be addressed, and not just by handing out a cheque. I would never ever be pro letting people just starve and doing away with social programs. But a huge overhaul? Heck yeah. Of course, the people that make these policies are typically just sitting in an office somewhere. They aren't front line like me, and they never actually ask us what we think...I guess that would make too much sense. Can you tell I'm frustrated?
http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t2#/video/us/2012/05/21/nr-hostin-hatchett-thirty-kids.cnn
Follow the link, you will not believe this story. A Tenn man who has 30 children wants the state to help him pay his child support. Not Kidding!
Thats what Im talkin about!!!
Follow the link, you will not believe this story. A Tenn man who has 30 children wants the state to help him pay his child support. Not Kidding!
Thats what Im talkin about!!!
LMNO, I hate to burst your bubble friend, but your paying the lowest taxes in 60 years. Look it up if you dont believe me.
The government created the situation and they are the ones gonna have to find a solution. Leave medicare and ss alone.
Medicaid has become a source of income for everyone who doesnt want to stay in a marriage or support the children of a marriage or a hookup. That I have a problem with. Get the fraud out.
Working in the medical field I can assure you there is enuff fraud to go around and its not the people on medicaid doing it. Its the doctors.
SS disability is another I have seen milked. All of this is the result of someone NOT doing their jobs.
Medicaid has become a source of income for everyone who doesnt want to stay in a marriage or support the children of a marriage or a hookup. That I have a problem with. Get the fraud out.
Working in the medical field I can assure you there is enuff fraud to go around and its not the people on medicaid doing it. Its the doctors.
SS disability is another I have seen milked. All of this is the result of someone NOT doing their jobs.
I'm with ya on the "band aide solutions" thing. For some reason, politicians (both parties, mind you) will have numerous broken projects that they just keep throwing money at. Nothing is changed... operating procedures are the same, spending remains the same (or gets ramped up with a financial infusion) and they continue to run the program into the dirt.... it is rampant.
(I just read a story about the Las Vegas Nevada school district has recently approved a budget. The problem with that budget is, it is the same as last years budget. The problem with that is, there are 300 fewer employees.... do the math folks and draw your own conclusions.)
Look at immigration. Both republicans and democrats infuse this program with money all of the time, and the situation is not getting better. Why? Why is someone not looking at this program and straightening it out? Instead, just throw money at it?
Welfare? El... I am with you on this. Initially, welfare was a "hand up" over a "hand out". When the program was instituted, it was about sustaining a family through tough times. Immigration plays a huge part here as well, and look no further than California to see what the impact of illegal immigration does to welfare/unemployment.....
On a local basis, we have 1 business that harbors illegals. It does all it can to make these people legal, and keep them out of contact with the law. Granted, some of these people would be great Americans. These people would pay taxes, hold jobs, be community minded... the other half are receiving every kind of local and national financial assistance they can.
This particular part of the community knows exactly how to take full advantage of the system. Pregnant mother shows up, stays with an established friend. (Someone already established within the system.) This person introduces her friend to the personnel with the system and shazam!!! Housing, food and medical.... just like that!!!!)
Now, it gets better than that. The guys who knocked the women up are coming to this country or are here already. They cannot cohabitate because that takes away a very valuable resource, so the men will rent apartments/houses/trailers and have 5-10 people living there and paying rent. They work in shifts and sleep in shifts. With 5-10 paying rent, rent is cheap. They do not mind living like this until everything settles down. We see it every day....
So frustrating.... then we are asked to pay more taxes to keep bogus programs like this afloat. Financially, I can't afford to make much more money than I do with my regular 40 hour a week job. Only a few more bucks and I am in another tax bracket.... it is not right!
(I just read a story about the Las Vegas Nevada school district has recently approved a budget. The problem with that budget is, it is the same as last years budget. The problem with that is, there are 300 fewer employees.... do the math folks and draw your own conclusions.)
Look at immigration. Both republicans and democrats infuse this program with money all of the time, and the situation is not getting better. Why? Why is someone not looking at this program and straightening it out? Instead, just throw money at it?
Welfare? El... I am with you on this. Initially, welfare was a "hand up" over a "hand out". When the program was instituted, it was about sustaining a family through tough times. Immigration plays a huge part here as well, and look no further than California to see what the impact of illegal immigration does to welfare/unemployment.....
On a local basis, we have 1 business that harbors illegals. It does all it can to make these people legal, and keep them out of contact with the law. Granted, some of these people would be great Americans. These people would pay taxes, hold jobs, be community minded... the other half are receiving every kind of local and national financial assistance they can.
This particular part of the community knows exactly how to take full advantage of the system. Pregnant mother shows up, stays with an established friend. (Someone already established within the system.) This person introduces her friend to the personnel with the system and shazam!!! Housing, food and medical.... just like that!!!!)
Now, it gets better than that. The guys who knocked the women up are coming to this country or are here already. They cannot cohabitate because that takes away a very valuable resource, so the men will rent apartments/houses/trailers and have 5-10 people living there and paying rent. They work in shifts and sleep in shifts. With 5-10 paying rent, rent is cheap. They do not mind living like this until everything settles down. We see it every day....
So frustrating.... then we are asked to pay more taxes to keep bogus programs like this afloat. Financially, I can't afford to make much more money than I do with my regular 40 hour a week job. Only a few more bucks and I am in another tax bracket.... it is not right!
"...too many are now geared towards enabling and not helping people achieve independence..."
You said a mouthful Amanda.
Unfortunately, the U.S. gov't is trying to get as many people DEPENDENT on gov't programs, as possible. "They" (the politicians putting these programs in place) know that come voting time, those that rely on gov't programs to survive, will continually vote them into power (because they don't want their meal'ticket going bye-bye).
Subsidizing a family is one thing, but when said family is wholly DEPENDENT on social programs and gov't "assistance" to survive... that's a completely new ball-game.
Quite honestly, I know that folks fall on tough times, and I know that periodically people need/require gov't assistance in order to get by. I have zero problem with that.
The problem I have, is with the lazy f*cks that sit at home doing nothing, all the while drawing gov't checks and subsequently, making MY taxes go up and up and up.
If I hear one more politician tell me that they think I should pay more taxes, and that I don't pay enough, and that all we need to do is raise taxes on the wealthy, I'll vomit.
This isn't a taxation problem... it's a spending problem. Raise taxes on the wealthy, by all means, but PLEASE stop spending in an uncontrolled, unmonitored, irresponsible way.
We're being taxed to death, and all we've gotten out of it so far is yet higher taxes and a national debt snowball.
You said a mouthful Amanda.
Unfortunately, the U.S. gov't is trying to get as many people DEPENDENT on gov't programs, as possible. "They" (the politicians putting these programs in place) know that come voting time, those that rely on gov't programs to survive, will continually vote them into power (because they don't want their meal'ticket going bye-bye).
Subsidizing a family is one thing, but when said family is wholly DEPENDENT on social programs and gov't "assistance" to survive... that's a completely new ball-game.
Quite honestly, I know that folks fall on tough times, and I know that periodically people need/require gov't assistance in order to get by. I have zero problem with that.
The problem I have, is with the lazy f*cks that sit at home doing nothing, all the while drawing gov't checks and subsequently, making MY taxes go up and up and up.
If I hear one more politician tell me that they think I should pay more taxes, and that I don't pay enough, and that all we need to do is raise taxes on the wealthy, I'll vomit.
This isn't a taxation problem... it's a spending problem. Raise taxes on the wealthy, by all means, but PLEASE stop spending in an uncontrolled, unmonitored, irresponsible way.
We're being taxed to death, and all we've gotten out of it so far is yet higher taxes and a national debt snowball.
Socialism doesn't work. Neither does Communism. Human nature just doesn't allow for it. It's sad what is happening in Greece, but I think probably inevitiable. Unfortunately, economies are all far more closely connected then many of us even realize so situations like this do impact all of us. Hence the fact that other countries continue to attempt bailouts. However, with such a small tax base, it's just not sustainable.
Social programs are very important as you know I believe. Unfortuantely, too many are now geared towards enabling and not helping people achieve independance. Also, social programs work best when partially funded by gov't, but also by corporations and wealthy individuals. Money going into many social programs needs to be better controlled and outcomes more closely monitored. Band aid solutions don't work.
Social programs are very important as you know I believe. Unfortuantely, too many are now geared towards enabling and not helping people achieve independance. Also, social programs work best when partially funded by gov't, but also by corporations and wealthy individuals. Money going into many social programs needs to be better controlled and outcomes more closely monitored. Band aid solutions don't work.
I agree 100%.
This is what the people who support socialism don't see, They don't see the European economy near complete collapse. (They used Spain as their model in this article, but take a real good gander at Greece....) It's like they think the money to support all socialist agendas just keeps flowing, and I guess to some extent it does. Until China says it can't loan you more money.....
This is what the people who support socialism don't see, They don't see the European economy near complete collapse. (They used Spain as their model in this article, but take a real good gander at Greece....) It's like they think the money to support all socialist agendas just keeps flowing, and I guess to some extent it does. Until China says it can't loan you more money.....
Well, I dont think me or my husband are ever going to retire, so reality *****. We are all connected and if the others go down, it automatically affects the rest of us Im afraid.
I would doubt the other countries have much sympathy for us either. Doesnt matter. Its all a domino effect.
I would doubt the other countries have much sympathy for us either. Doesnt matter. Its all a domino effect.
Corporate greed has nurtured the 'One World' economy in order to maximize its profits. It's taken almost as a given these days, that isolationism is a 'bad' thing, but we really don't need Europe's business any more than we needed to be indebted to China to support a bloated war macine and 'private security firm' industry. Unless you see Cheney and his cronies mortgaging our children's futures in order to line the pockets of Blackwater/Xe and their ilk as a 'good' thing.
This country has a hard working, productive labor force and, with the exception of a few rare earth's we might need to import from Canada, all the raw materials we need. And even there, I could live with slightly higher prices for a few luxury electronic goods,
I know it sounds heartless, but Greece got itself into this mess with early retirement ages and a bloated Socialist state. Why should we, or Germany for that matter have our economies dragged down because of this? I certainly will not be able to retire at the age and with the benefits most Europeans enjoy.
This country has a hard working, productive labor force and, with the exception of a few rare earth's we might need to import from Canada, all the raw materials we need. And even there, I could live with slightly higher prices for a few luxury electronic goods,
I know it sounds heartless, but Greece got itself into this mess with early retirement ages and a bloated Socialist state. Why should we, or Germany for that matter have our economies dragged down because of this? I certainly will not be able to retire at the age and with the benefits most Europeans enjoy.
"...particularly the United States, whose economy is expected to grow 2.4 percent this year and 2.6 percent next..."
I'm happy that this article has the U.S. economy growing, but I question whether or not they've got their figures right.
I'm not sure about you guys, but everything I've been reading, says the U.S. economy could be slipping into recession.
Regardless, the European Union slipping into recession is bad news for the entire planet, and if their economy goes further south, it'll drag us down with it.
So much for our global economy and one-world-government being a GOOD thing, eh?!?
I'm happy that this article has the U.S. economy growing, but I question whether or not they've got their figures right.
I'm not sure about you guys, but everything I've been reading, says the U.S. economy could be slipping into recession.
Regardless, the European Union slipping into recession is bad news for the entire planet, and if their economy goes further south, it'll drag us down with it.
So much for our global economy and one-world-government being a GOOD thing, eh?!?
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