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Verifying the low odds of getting HIV from straight sex (correct)
As I put myself under risk 5 weeks ago, and also have been experiencing paranoia about stds and hiv. And right now I got cold, but the only symptoms are slightly high temperature (about 37) and blocked nose, seems like these are not HIV symptoms and now in my region is pretty cold weather and I have been together with my friend who probably infected me with this cold :).
But anyway, If I asess my risk... let's say I had unprotected vaginal and oral sex with a girl i don't know, but seems like she has a pretty good nature, working a normal job and also studying, I won't say from which region I'm but let's say that statistics shows that here are 0.1-0.3 % of people living with HIV/AIDS. And I assume that most straight guys in this forum have about the same problem, conditions and the reason why they post here.
Now assume, that mostly people living with HIV are 20-40 years old, that in worst case makes the situation different, I made some calculation keeping in mind how approximately many people are infected and reduced the count of all population by 2/3, cause 20-40 year old people could make 1/3 of all population, and keeping in mind that there are also some 1-3 % of gays i got the approximate result of 0.8% of straight people in the category of 20-40 age could be infected.
For making further calculations, as i read many materials about odds of getting HIV from unprotected vaginal sex with infected girl , the average odds are about 1 in 2000 (could be also the worst case).
0.008*0.0005=0.000004 or 0.0004 % - that's the chance you will get HIV from a single unprotected sex a with random girl in a country with low HIV prevalence.
It seems like almost impossible, the chances of being killed by falling tree seem more realistic.
Actually as i wrote here before, I don't believe, that chances are so unsignificant. SO i made further calculations - lets assume that that country has 10m citizens, about 3m of them having regular lets say unprotected straight sex 3 times a week (they are couples, so divide 3 by 2), so there are 4.5m straight sexual acts per week in that country --> 18m in month and 216 millions per year. now lets make a calculation about how many people can get HIV in 1 year: 216 000 000 * 0.000004 (possibility) = 864 new possible cases of HIV per year from straight sex, so, that seems realistic or even more than expected and approves that probability of 0.0004 % is real, which still seems unbelivebul.
Please discuss or correct my theory :)
But anyway, If I asess my risk... let's say I had unprotected vaginal and oral sex with a girl i don't know, but seems like she has a pretty good nature, working a normal job and also studying, I won't say from which region I'm but let's say that statistics shows that here are 0.1-0.3 % of people living with HIV/AIDS. And I assume that most straight guys in this forum have about the same problem, conditions and the reason why they post here.
Now assume, that mostly people living with HIV are 20-40 years old, that in worst case makes the situation different, I made some calculation keeping in mind how approximately many people are infected and reduced the count of all population by 2/3, cause 20-40 year old people could make 1/3 of all population, and keeping in mind that there are also some 1-3 % of gays i got the approximate result of 0.8% of straight people in the category of 20-40 age could be infected.
For making further calculations, as i read many materials about odds of getting HIV from unprotected vaginal sex with infected girl , the average odds are about 1 in 2000 (could be also the worst case).
0.008*0.0005=0.000004 or 0.0004 % - that's the chance you will get HIV from a single unprotected sex a with random girl in a country with low HIV prevalence.
It seems like almost impossible, the chances of being killed by falling tree seem more realistic.
Actually as i wrote here before, I don't believe, that chances are so unsignificant. SO i made further calculations - lets assume that that country has 10m citizens, about 3m of them having regular lets say unprotected straight sex 3 times a week (they are couples, so divide 3 by 2), so there are 4.5m straight sexual acts per week in that country --> 18m in month and 216 millions per year. now lets make a calculation about how many people can get HIV in 1 year: 216 000 000 * 0.000004 (possibility) = 864 new possible cases of HIV per year from straight sex, so, that seems realistic or even more than expected and approves that probability of 0.0004 % is real, which still seems unbelivebul.
Please discuss or correct my theory :)
Actually about every 2500th guy i was wrong, it goes with even less probability, 100 times less. And many doctors approve that guy who gets HIV from the first exposure is really unlucky, really.
So, from statistics in average only every 2500th guy could get infected from the first exposure of unprotected sex, so, I don't deny it, but that should be a really bad luck which happens realy rear.
No it isn't. When Odds don't tell you a thing and people have been infected on their first exposure.
I know, that's for sure, but I'm sure those odds can be a huge reassurance for people while waiting those 3 months as it is for me now. Don't tell me that I'm wrong.
I really don't want to argue with u cause I respect you, but still, you can't speak for all and I think this topic is completely connected with HIV bearing in mind, that many people always are confused with those low odds, this can help.
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