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1201433 tn?1328997637

what are your chances if not UND 4 weeks

I would like to know what are my chances, if not UND by week 4, supposedly you have an 86% chance with triple tx, if UND at 4weeks, do your chances go down from there, last time I treated I was not completely UND at 12 weeks, and probably should have been taken off , instead my doctor put me through 48 weeks to no advail? Just looking for imput on this ? thank you Mary ann
Best Answer
1815939 tn?1377991799
"I would like to know what are my chances, if not UND by week 4, supposedly you have an 86% chance with triple tx, if UND at 4weeks, do your chances go down from there,"
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Yes, your chances do go down if not UND by 4 weeks, but your chances are still good. Actually, since I did not reach eRVR because I was DET. at week 4, I had the same question.

This link takes you to a study of people who took Incivek 12 weeks and Peg/Riba for either 24 or 48 weeks (24 weeks if eRVR and 48 weeks if no eRVR).

In a nutshell, SVR was reached by 92% of people who attained eRVR and 60% of people who did not attain eRVR.

Table 10 shows the response rates for the T12/PR and Pbo/PR48 groups.

Treatment Outcome T12/PR

Overall SVR 79% (285/363)

eRVR 58% (212/363)  
SVR in eRVR subjects 92% (195/212)

No eRVR 42% (151/363)  
SVR in no eRVR subjects 60% (90/151)

Outcome for Subjects without SVR
On-treatment virologic failurea 7% (26/363)  
Relapseb 4% (11/298)  
Otherc 11% (41/363)  

http://www.fda.gov/ForConsumers/ByAudience/ForPatientAdvocates/ucm256328.htm

This study indicates that a person was considered eRVR if they were UND at weeks 4 and 12. It also seems to indicate tthat a person who was considered no eRVR included all people who were DET at weeks 4  AND  12   AND/OR  all people who were DET at weeks 4  OR  12. I don't know if the percentages would change if the person was DET at 4 weeks and UND at 12 weeks  OR  if the person was DET at week 4 and UND at week 6 or 8. It seems logical that the percentages would be better, but that data is not in the study details.

Regardless, while 60% is not as good as 92%, 60% is still good. A person still has a good chance of attaining SVR.

(For the record, my 4 week VL was <43 but DET. My Viral Loads at weeks 8, 12, 16, 20, 24 are all Undetectable. I am doing 48 weeks of treatment and I think I have a pretty good chance at attaining SVR.)

8 Responses
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1201433 tn?1328997637
                                                                                                                                         Iwas on riba and peggsy alfa2a
Helpful - 0
Avatar universal
What treatment did you go through that resulted in the virus returning?
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1201433 tn?1328997637
                                                                                                                                     I am stage 3 fribrose, gen1a, tumor marker was negative I achieved SVR right up to my 6 month test, last year, I knew it had come back by the strong smell of my urine, I was right. I feel bad even complaining , when I have chated with a girl on here that has treated 8 times, I will forge ahead, what else can you do thank you all for the good advice Mary ann
Helpful - 0
190885 tn?1333025891
sometimes i wonder....because vl go up and down so much...maybe some start with vl that just happen to be really high on the starting day...it would seem that might take a little more time to und....i have often though that my stating vl may have been really high...i got a vl about a month before tx...it was 10 mil...maybe it was 20 mil just before tx....billy
Helpful - 0
190885 tn?1333025891
i was <43 at 4 weeks.....at two months post und..at 3 months post alts normal...my doc said if the alts stay normal theres no need to do another vl until 6 months post...so i'll be doing a alt in a week at 4 months post...chances are very high that i'll svr at 6 months post...stay with the triple...take it real easy.....good luck....billy
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Avatar universal
I should have looked closer, I see you have started tx. Good for you!! I dont see how you could not be nervous. I was too both times. I stayed glued to this forum the whole time I was txing. And still look at it almost everyday. If and when you have some rough side effects post them here. Most of us have been through lots and that's why we are on here. There are lots of things you can do to combat the sides and you will find them here.
I wish you the best, and hope you will SLAY THE DRAGON!!
Helpful - 0
Avatar universal
There are a variety of factors that come into play as far as your chances for svr are concerned. Biopsy results, have you been treated before, body weight, how much viral load has dropped by wk 4, just to name a few.
Personally I had several things going against me as far as statistics go. I had treated before, I have the TT marker, I am type 1a, and am a little overweight...lol. But I am undetectable at 3 months post treatment.
There will be people here that can give you exact numbers, but it would be helpful if you would post some numbers as far as biopsy results and past treatment results, the more info you can post the better the folks here will be able to help  you.
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