Yes, those obviously are possibilities.
Doctor, since this is an interesting scenario may I add a comment? Is this is a good example of how the Herpeselect can miss some cases? Or even better, could Astronoman be one of the rare people who never develop antibodies to HSV 1 or 2? Thanks.
In general, a culture is the gold standard; that positive result probably nailed the diagnosis. However, you are correct that you should have developed a positive blood test by now. And there are other atypical aspects of your situtation. Of all people with new, symptomatic HSV-2, the large majority have recurrent outbreaks within the next few months; that is, the lack of repeat episodes since January is atypical. Second, a single lesion at the base of the penis is not the most common initial symptom. But still, there are aspects that indeed suggest herpes, most importantly the STD clinician thought the lesion was typical enough to test it and start treatment. I don't know what to make of the flu-like symptoms; although common in initial herpes, it is peculiar that they started after you were on valacyclovir for almost a week.
All of which leaves uncertainty. On balance, my bet is that you are infected with HSV-2. However, I recommend you pursue the postive culture result, perhaps with direct communication with the laboratory. Conceivably there was an error, such as mixup of your test result with someone else's (which the clinic might not be aware of, but the lab could work out). Also, find out exactly what test they use. If it was a culture, the positive result almost certainly is accurate. If some other test was used, such as PCR, then questions might be raised (since PCR tests are not standardized, and errors may be more common in some labs than others).
So the direct answers are: 1) Uncertain, see above. 2) The common wisdom is that treatment never aborts HSV and probably your treatment did not affect the blood test result. However, the science in this arena isn't rock solid. Conceivably that could have happened, but I doubt it. 3) I suggest yet another blood test; maybe wait a little while and do it this fall, i.e. 9-10 months after onset. If still negative, have the specimen also sent to the University of Washington for a Western blot test--including the information of your positive culture for HSV-2. Also follow up with the clinic and/or lab about your culture result, as suggested above.
Sorry I cannot come up with a clear answer, but I hope this helps. Best wishes-- HHH, MD