Wrap it before you tap it!!!!
There's probably no point in trying to guess the numbers, dude. Get tested 3 months after the last one, and then get another test at 6 months just in case.
Did you ask the guys when they were tested? Maybe when they said they were negative they meant they were negative the last time they got a test, which could have been 5 years ago for all you know. If they're doing you without a condom, they must be doing other people too. Work with the assumption they were positive and you might be too. Then I pray for you that the HIV test gives you a pleasant surprise.
By the way, you shouldn't just be worried about those guys being positive. You could be infecting other people if one of them infected you. It's not just about you, it's about the other people too. You want good karma.
Of course I cannot predict whether your partners were telling the truth when they said they were HIV negative. Most people don't lie outright; if one or more was positive, the odds are they would have said it or would have not committed one way or the other. The odds of HIV transmission are low for any single episode of sex, including anal--probably no higher than 1 in 100 for unprotected anal sex (higher top to bottom than vice versa). The risk also depends on the presence or absence of other STDs, and on HIV stage and antiviral therapy if a parner is infected. No data are available about varying risk for duration of sex, or sex with or without ejaculation.
You need to adopt a safer overall pattern of sexual behavior and practices--either consistent condom use plus knowing and sharing HIV status with all partners; or permanent mutual monogamy with an uninfected partner. If you continue unprotected anal sex, top or bottom, with guys in casual settings, you can pretty much guarantee you will acquire HIV someday.
Get safe. Good luck-- HHH, MD
The chart below is from "Antiretroviral Postexposure Prophylaxis After Sex, Injection-Drug Use, or Other Nonoccupational Exposure to HIV in the United States." It's from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (CDC, NIH) and was published in January of this year. Hopefully it will provide you with the information you require; however, please note these are ESTIMATED per-act risks with an infected source and assume no condom use.
TABLE 1. Estimated per-act risk for acquisition of HIV, by exposure route*
Exposure route ----- Risk per 10,000 exposures to an infected source
Blood transfusion ---- 9,000
Needle-sharing injection-drug use ---- 67
Receptive anal intercourse ---- 50
Percutaneous needle stick ---- 30
Receptive penile-vaginal intercourse ---- 10
Insertive anal intercourse ---- 6.5
Insertive penile-vaginal intercourse ----- 5
Receptive oral intercourse ---- 1
Insertive oral intercourse ---- 0.5
It should be noted that viral load, presence of other stds, and other factors can increase the risk. bottom line: the odds are in your favor, but you should be tested