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Life expectancy
20 years post 6 bypass, and 4 stents 2 years ago
This discussion is related to Life expectancy of bypass surgery patient.
This discussion is related to Life expectancy of bypass surgery patient.
My cardiologist won't answer the life expectancy question. Because he answers anything else I ask, I believe he is not avoiding but genuinely feels it is not an answerable question.
A lot of the time, research results (in any field) will be mostly grouped near some "average" value (mean or median, usually), with fewer and fewer results as you get farther from the center. The farthest away data points are colloquially called "outliers."
Outcome studies on OHS will also give an average survival time (usually median, I think, because mean isn't very meaningful here) and range of results. One thing I've noticed is that the range tends to be broad, and there are as many outliers (results at the ends of the range) as there are patients in the middle. So if a study of 30 patients shows survival rates of 90% at six weeks (just to pick a number) and 75% at a year, and 65% at five years and 60% at ten years, but only 25% at 15 years (just for illustration, not actual numbers), you see that 1/4 of the people in this group lived less than 2 years and 1/4 lived more than 15 years. These data are definitely NOT grouped around a middle value or mean, which is what we really are asking for when we ask about life expectancy.
As kk said, there are a lot of other risk factors going into life expectancy. I have noticed, though, that even statistical analyses breaking down the data to control for other physiological factors get a wide range of survival times with a high percentage of outliers in each group.
With such unsatisfying (to us) follow-up data, quite a few patients I've met have devised their own rules of thumb. With AVR, which is my group, there is a lot of talk about different brands and models of replacement valves, with patients deriving their own rules--e.g., people often say something like, "With this kind of valve, if you're alive at 3 years, then you'll live for at least 10." I just don't know enough to know how accurate these rules are, though.
Now that I think of it, prediction of life expectancy looks more like witchcraft than science. Where'd I put my black cat and broom?
__
P.S. These outcome studies look, of course, at valve-related deaths or bypass deaths or cardiac deaths in general, whatever they are studying. They exclude from the data victims of, say, auto accidents or brain aneurisms. As actual persons, we know that our individual life expectancy doesn't depend entirely on our hearts, but researchers don't use data on subjects who die of other causes because it is irrelevant to their study and will confuse their results.
A lot of the time, research results (in any field) will be mostly grouped near some "average" value (mean or median, usually), with fewer and fewer results as you get farther from the center. The farthest away data points are colloquially called "outliers."
Outcome studies on OHS will also give an average survival time (usually median, I think, because mean isn't very meaningful here) and range of results. One thing I've noticed is that the range tends to be broad, and there are as many outliers (results at the ends of the range) as there are patients in the middle. So if a study of 30 patients shows survival rates of 90% at six weeks (just to pick a number) and 75% at a year, and 65% at five years and 60% at ten years, but only 25% at 15 years (just for illustration, not actual numbers), you see that 1/4 of the people in this group lived less than 2 years and 1/4 lived more than 15 years. These data are definitely NOT grouped around a middle value or mean, which is what we really are asking for when we ask about life expectancy.
As kk said, there are a lot of other risk factors going into life expectancy. I have noticed, though, that even statistical analyses breaking down the data to control for other physiological factors get a wide range of survival times with a high percentage of outliers in each group.
With such unsatisfying (to us) follow-up data, quite a few patients I've met have devised their own rules of thumb. With AVR, which is my group, there is a lot of talk about different brands and models of replacement valves, with patients deriving their own rules--e.g., people often say something like, "With this kind of valve, if you're alive at 3 years, then you'll live for at least 10." I just don't know enough to know how accurate these rules are, though.
Now that I think of it, prediction of life expectancy looks more like witchcraft than science. Where'd I put my black cat and broom?
__
P.S. These outcome studies look, of course, at valve-related deaths or bypass deaths or cardiac deaths in general, whatever they are studying. They exclude from the data victims of, say, auto accidents or brain aneurisms. As actual persons, we know that our individual life expectancy doesn't depend entirely on our hearts, but researchers don't use data on subjects who die of other causes because it is irrelevant to their study and will confuse their results.
Life expectancy would be associated with your current age, general health, genes, exercising, diet, etc. You went 18 years without ischemia, and that would indicate you don't occlude vessels quickly, and that is a favorable sign.
Hello and Welcome to the Heart Forums!!
Congratulations on doing so well after your CABG and stent placements!! I don't think it's really possible to predict anyone's life expectancy. What does your cardiologist say about your heart health? Are you on a good medical regime? I'm assuming a beta blocker, ACE, and other RX as needed in your particular situation.
Hope you are having a great day!!
Congratulations on doing so well after your CABG and stent placements!! I don't think it's really possible to predict anyone's life expectancy. What does your cardiologist say about your heart health? Are you on a good medical regime? I'm assuming a beta blocker, ACE, and other RX as needed in your particular situation.
Hope you are having a great day!!
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