Someone must know something at Vertex The stock is really going up

Wow its almost at $31.00   The last 2 days have been unreal.  Either there is some info in Mondays web cast or someome knows something.  I wonder how much of this is insider buying?  All I know for sure is I like it going up and not down.  

                                                        Ron

[mikesimon]

The only recent insider activity I see is either sales or exercise of stock options. Mike

[andyarundel]

Think the folks at vertex would be very cautious as their patent lawyer is in jail for inside trades of vertex stocks....eli lilly's bailing on a vertex partnership on VX950 may have had something to do with how these folks were trading shares.

[GoofyDad]

upbeat - Your unbridled exuberance is..well... just that :)

Andy - C'mon brother. Lilly still has a finacial stake in VX-950. Since LLY restructed their agreement with VRTX, VRTX has approximately doubled in share price, while LLY has dropped significantly over the same period. On top of the 2x rise in PPS, VRTX has issued successful offerings, further raising their market cap.

You drag out a 3 year old piece of old LLY news in an attempt at undermining the prospects of VX-950 as a succsessful drug candidate? Good God, man.  

  

[andyarundel]

Just what I heard from some folks who may know a thing or two. Besides if one had status as an officer of a company and one of your former officers was in jail for insider trading with company stock, one would be most carefull with all trades dealing with stock you or your family owned. Wouldn't one?

The post dealth with insider trading with VTRX stock. OK I will pretend it never happened and no one in the pharm biz ever mentions it.

[GoofyDad]

My post 'dealth' with the irrelevance of a three year old agreement restructure between Eli Lilly and Vertex on the prospects of VX 950 as a candidate drug for the treatment of HCV. A red herring, plain and simple. The markets have, and continue to react optimistically to the on-going VX-950 trials. I wonder who's getting caught with short positions?

[andyarundel]

who would short a bio stock without some very interesting info on their hands? Option maybe, but short.

[GoofyDad]

<i>"folks who may know a thing or two"</i> would be my best guess :)

[andyarundel]

are you shorting this stock...I need some entertaiment...looks like there are just a few players.

[GoofyDad]

Short VRTX? Me? Most definitely not. Why would I short what I view to be the most promissing new treatment for HCV sufferers to come down the pike. No, I'm definitely long.

I thought some of your pharm friends - the guys with the whispered negative info that can't seem to find the light of day - might take this opportunity to suck some easy cash out of uneducated, uninformed noobs such as myself.

[Forseegood]

such a pleasant plume of fresh air emitting from your nostrils today: I always appreciate a "voice of reason" who also has a killer sense of humor...when dark clouds gather at the psychic horizon...Goofydad to the rescue...Goofydad to the rescue....

[BronxRican007]

Are you guys on TX?

I reason I ask is because I take shot 20 tonight and there is no way since this tx began that I can concentrate on stock trades, or anything else for that matter.
:)
Cheers
br007

[GoofyDad]

Speaking of emitting plumes, lemme tell you about that burrito I had last night........

Actually, I have a bone to pick with you. Weeks ago you detailed your problems with burritos and a lack of digestion thereof. Well, we have this local place called <a href="http://www.hightechburrito.com">High Tech Burrito</a>. They have a <a href="http://www.hightechburrito.com/html/menu.html">pretty diverse menu</a>. Every time I go there now I visually process each menu item as I think it would be passed through Forseegood. Can't stop it. It does little to enhance my dining experience - think of the partially digested MangiaMangia flying out he back door. Not pretty, is it?

[GoofyDad]

Ending week 16 here. It does take some wind out of your sails, don't it?

[Forseegood]

wow, ...stay away from those techno burritos! consequeces could be calamitous! I'm going to come and visit Califia up there if it kills me, won't be too far from you....better tell us where this place is located so we can be sure to be upwind from it, just looking at that menu, oooh my tummy!!!!....Califia, sweetie, soon you'll be steppin large and laughin easy as always! sending healing vibes!

[cuteus]

why is it always a vertex thread every week? It is begining to sound like Wall street journal.
Can we even things out with NM?
Something that works so well on nonresponders, has to be valuable.
Can we tone down the vertex touting? just a tad? We really don't need a weekly thread on the stock prices. Just my take.
be well

[andyarundel]

I think VX950 is a fine med that is presently in

[can-do-man]

you haven't a clue.......To funny

[GoofyDad]

<i>The opinions from those who I respect suggest that any new successful HCV treatment using small molecule NS3 inhibitors will require multi drug cocktails similar to what HIV/AIDS patients currently use. </i>

Ahhh. More whispers from your folks in the know. That statement is complete and utter hogwash, and hopefully you know it. A technical explanation with supporting data would help lend some credibility. Jeeeze!

<i>There are some mutation problems with VX950 as there were with BILN2061.</i>

Ummm, at sub-optimum dosing there appeared to be some viral 'rebound' - and the trial was to find correct dosing. VRTX scientists describe this as not a mutation, but rather a particular existing quasi-species not responding as strongly as did other quasi-species. Thus there was a bloom in the population of that particular quasi-species as compared to the rapidly declining populations of the better responding quasi-species. Note that there was <b>no evidence of rebound or viral bloom whatsoever under optimal dosing</b>. Further, the quasi-species in question happens to be particularly responsive to interferon.

<i>I would think that upping the VX950 dosage would land this med in the same place BILN2061 is presently. </i>

OK, I'll bite. Why would you up the dosage of a drug which unanimously delivered a 4-5 log drop on a continually declining slope in (if memory serves) 7 days of dosing? That's orders of magnitudes beyond what we have with today's SOC. Unsatifactory results in your book? Just not promissing enough for you? No opportunity for optimism to be found? Stuck in the past? Alternate agenda? Help me out here, Andy.

[cougareyes]

At this point all we can do is argue about what if's. There just isn't enough hard data to draw any conclusions. My belief is this next generation of drugs will be for those who can not tolerate the current combo, those who have not responded to current combo, or those who have no to very little liver damage. I don't think the promise of the new meds should be used to pospone those considering tx if you feel as if your current health dictates tx. It's going to be a little while, and some have already seen their health deterirate while waiting for other drugs that had shown promise.    Peace

[GoofyDad]

Agreed, this thread did start with an unabashed stock hyping... I tried to point that out.

Meanwhile, Vertex is developing a very promissing product. Many concerned with the treatment of HCV are interested. The equities markets like the product. No one here has articulated any reason why VX-950 is not promissing, other than things like, well it might not work out, or, as we heard today, there was the dissolution of an agreement THREE FREAKIN'YEARS AGO, etc. I mean Hell, the published data says the stuff works outstandingly well. Oh, and it has been intimated here that maybe the data is a lie - of course with no support for what might be wrong with the data.

Anyway, Vertex has an announcement on Monday. News about what is arguably the most promissing substance for treating HCV is coming out Monday. Some here are understandably interested. Hopefully you will tolerate our discussion.

[can-do-man]

Why not vertex, since chevygal says............In my opinion, you two are right on the money. This is a patient-to-patient support & exchange of information relative to hepatitis and hepatitis is affected by politics and social issues as Tommy put is so well in a nutshell, ..."a profit driven system that serves the health of corporate dividends"... This is an exchnage of OPINIONS and it is a hepatitis concern that feels good to discuss amongst each other. No one's running for office, just letting of steam about the fortunate mess wherein our health system lies.

So politics is fine but drugs that might cure hep-c are not????

[can-do-man]

well hi there "befuddled be darn" or is it "miss vicky", care to tell everybody just how many times you been banned from this site

[Forseegood]

perceptive post. I'm afraid I'm at a loss about the stock market game, never good with quick figures, but I am interested in Vertex, along with all the other new drugs out there. I like to hear different takes....

[andyarundel]

All the protease inhibitor folks all hype the same thing! Log drop. Log Drop. Log Drop. And they ALL are in a battle of whose "Logs" drop farther and faster. But since what ALL these drugs do is "inhibit replication" of the HCV, they rarely clear the HCV in you! So when you finish this HCV med the HCV comes right back at you!

The ultimate goal of any hepatitis therapy is a "sustained viral response". You can have all the Log Drops you want. But if that log drop response is not durable when you stop drug therapy? what good did it really do you?

To date  that is VRTX has typed is meaningless 12-14 week data, they will avoid 48 week data,  EVR means squat! LONG term SVR is key, they probably will not do any off therapy followup up either...and because of that their therapy will not show sustained viral response,only a massive halt in replication of viral levels,log drop.

When I see this DURABILITY OF SUSTAINED VIROLOGICAL RESPONSE (SVR) AFTER TREATMENT VR950, then I will be excited.

By the way the info on biln and VX950 came from Chao Lin, who is the lead researcher on VX950 at vertex.

[andyarundel]

All - without exception - ALL of the protease inhibitors, without exception, are capable of producing PI resistant replicons.
All HCV protease inhibitors must meet the following criteria. A - exclusively human serine protease; B - the result must be a non-electrophilic molecule. C - the result must also be a non-GABA agonist, all of which mean the PI must be able to permeate capillary walls. The point of PI monotherapy is this: that if you inhibit NS3 enough, the interferon made by your own body will kill the virus, eliminating the need for injected interferon.
Lower Potency Means The Addition Of Injected Interferon;Lower potency means injected interferon, but, maybe at reduced dosages, and no doubt with a nuke. Also means some interesting times with whatever regulatory agency is responsible for giving a thumbs up on a safety efficiency, such as the FDA or pharcoenomomic(EU, CAN).

[GoofyDad]

<i>ALL these drugs do is "inhibit replication" of the HCV, they rarely clear the HCV in you!</i>

<i><b>Whatever dude</i></b>. So in the 5 log drops and undetectables, those that occurred in just seven days, where did the viri go? A freakin' donkey show in Tijuana? No, Sir. They were <b>DESTROYED BY THE IMMUNE SYSTEM!</b> Gone. Kapput. No longer replicating and assembling. Toast.

OK. Here's how it works. VX-950 binds to the NS 3/4 protease and, as I understand it,  effectively unwraps the virus so the immune system can do it's thing. That's where the anticipated synergy with interferon comes in. Unmask the virus with VX-950, boost the immune response with interferon, and viral annihilation ensues.  

This is like trying to have a meaningful debate with a goddamned eel. Point after point of yours is shown to be patently false, and rather than retract you just slither back to throw more drivelous **** against the wall, hoping something will stick.

Over and out.

<small>does anyone know if I can take a valium on treatment? I could use one, LOL.</small>

[andyarundel]

The holy grail is a oral dosage shorter term treatment that wipes out the virus without wiping out the liver or having other negative side effects. That's what VX-950 is, after a fashion... its unclear if the Protease Inhibitor approach will result in a cure or just a supression of the disease. Since we're talking about a virus, its also possible that it will mutate into a form unaffected by the VRTX treatment at some point.

BI's protease had cardio toxicity in monkeys. VRTX did their studies in other animals. Then again who cares about monkeys as they have no money to buy VX950.

Oh but you know all this> You know wht Lilly restructered, you seem to know everything. I know, your betting VRTX will hit $100 with it's potential market in China and India. All those people selling their bikes to but VX950.

If valuation is historically at 10 times earnings and VRTX 950 is a $1-2 Billion dollar drug then the stock could easily make its way to the $100 dollar range.

Then again we could be back below $10 in a heartbeat with bad data on VRTX 950. In fact if VRTX 950 doesn't hit, then VRTX is bought for song by anyone interested. The sky would fall hard on bad data. No money, high burn rate and your best drug candidate in flames equals the end of VRTX

[cougareyes]

Wow andy actually said something I agree with. As much as anyone else I hope we find a tx that is friendlier and has a higher % of svr. Yet the next wave of drugs are really still in the infant stages.
All they have produced is a faster drop in vl statistically than the current combo. I'm not sure when I cleared but some have cleared at 4 weeks on the present combo. If they would have stopped then may not have even had any side effects, then the virus would have just come back. There have been viral rebounds in the current trials of vx, and as soon as the drugs are stopped the vl instantly returns. That does not show me any data that points toward svr.
The short duration of trial tx also doesn't give the drugs a chance to show it's other head in the form of sx. Riba most of the time doesn't pack it's full wollop until after 4 or 5 weeks on therapy, and many still don't show signs of anemia until further on. Interferons effects sometimes don't come until even further.
I hate to rain on anyone's parade but I wish people would just cool their jets. The only one's I see that are 100% optimistic are the one's that are primed to make a profit. Because it's in their best interest to get other's interest. Just one man's thoughts.   Peace

[GoofyDad]

<i>"There have been viral rebounds in the current trials of vx, and as soon as the drugs are stopped the vl instantly returns."</i>

OK - We'll just have to agree to dissagree. Closing points:

1) Last time. There was no viral rebound in the testing performed at anticipated real-world dosing levels. To dwell on results from a dosing level that will, in all likelyhood, never again see the light of day is pointless. Furthermore, the delivery mechanism has been improved, suggesting they will be able to get twice as much drug to the virus in future trials.  

2) Of course the virus came back. There were no attempts to erradicate it. They were primarily testing safety of the drug over a very short window. Results? The drug was well tolerated, and the therapy blew the doors off anything seen before. There is reason for optimism there. Is there not?

This is not a done deal. There's a long way to go. I just wish people would stop tossing red herrings. The arguments I've seen go something like this:

When administred at a fraction of the real-world dose, the drug is not entirely effective.

Therapy administered for 1/48th of today's standard didn't produce SVR.

Therefore, there is little hope for this drug candidate.

[andyarundel]

I agree..is really moot until any new med finishes stage III trials and has approval from the FDA. That is along way off.

[andyarundel]

Tale of 2 drugs

[Snookmiester]

Agggghhhhhhhhhhh, I just had a LOG DROP myself!!! LOL!!

[GoofyDad]

LOL - These days I'm envious of such 'uplifting' news. My 'zine pile by the bowl is getting tall enough it serves as a coffee table. Keep posting, maybe I can enjoy my drops vicariously through yours.....

plip.....plip...

[Mister beagle bailey]

Thanks for the site on Thalassemia, it is very helpful.  Iceboy has the same condition it might be helpful to him also.

Stay well,

BB

[cougareyes]

Andy put together a good laundry list of the afore mentioned promising new drugs. It kinda makes me sick to my stomach all the posters jumping on vx-950 magic carpet ride. Seems like HCV meds are like diet pills, lots of promises. We'll just have to wait and see which one's deliver.  Be Well

[Mister beagle bailey]

Hi,

It's 9 AM Sat. morning and I tried to post a question and they are saying the forum has reached it's limit for the day and no more questions can be posted. I hope this is not a repeat of Thursday.  

Any feed back ?

Here we go again.

  BB

[andyarundel]

I think it may be wise to include some information in all new HCV pamphlets with regard to log drops, puts, calls, options, shorts, longs big block and small block trading. I would hate to have people counting things after a bowel movement to see if their log drops had accommodated the accepted norm. Other former blockbusting log droppers such as Amantadine, which did so well with the huge infected chimpanzee population. Another huge log dropper BILN2061 managed to keep the log dropper fans for years after the monkey population knew this med was not for them. Since then we have had the Caspase Inhibitor IDN-6556  ,  filgrastim, darbepoetin, merimepodib (VX-497), Viramidine, ZADAXIN, ISIS 14803 intercell

[derail]

alas your talent for humour is as ever poor as is your compassion and understanding for any who choose to disagree with your omnipotent opinion of yourself careful you dont trip on your ego

[andyarundel]

It is rather an insult for finitude to question infinity. It was totally below the dignity of immensity to dance to the hypocritical wiles of mortality. But it seems your penchant for dumping your racist, facist and sexist jokes gives you some form of claim to fame. You are the joke Darryl, and by the way how is your other brother Darryl, Darryl?

Too bad it doesn't give you an excuse for unnecessary flamebaiting and uninspired insults (get the irony here lol).

Your attempts at posting are quite unfunny and uninspired. The cut and paste humor leaves a lot to be desired, which probably reflects your personality. I love how you respond to any thread. You type like you talk, wow. WHAT A CONCEPT. Nothing gets past you, Nope! Nada! Ziltch!

Actually I have a pretty good idea that you and your cohorts as dumb as a sack of buffalo ****. Just 2 or 3 simpletons at heart. Just a very weird, stupid, geeky, lame brained, buck tooth, mullet sportin', ol' chimp of a has-beens, who have nothing more inspriring to do with the short hours of daylight. Thou cockered, beef-witted puttock.  Artless fen sucked clot poles.

If  we throw a stick, will you leave?