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Cancer cases to surge 75 percent worldwide by 2030
LONDON — The number of people with cancer is set to surge by more than 75 percent across the world by 2030, with particularly sharp rises in poor countries as they adopt unhealthy "Westernized" lifestyles, a study said on Friday.
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Many developing countries were expected to see a rise in living standards in coming decades, said the paper from the World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in Lyon, France.
But those advances could come at a cost -- an increase in cases of cancers linked to poor diet, lack of exercise and other bad habits associated with affluence and linked to diseases like breast, prostate and colorectal cancers, it added.
"Cancer is already the leading cause of death in many high-income countries and is set to become a major cause of morbidity (sickness) and mortality in the next decades in every region of the world," said Freddie Bray from IARC's cancer information section.
The study was the first to look at how present and future rates of cancer might vary between richer and poorer countries, as measured by the development rankings defined in the United Nations' Human Development Index (HDI).
Researchers found poorly developed countries -- mostly those in sub-Saharan Africa -- had high numbers of cancers linked to infections -- particularly cervical cancer, but also liver cancer, stomach cancer and Kaposi's sarcoma.
By contrast, richer countries like Britain, Australia, Russia and Brazil had more cancers associated with smoking - such as lung cancer, and with obesity and diet.
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The researchers said that rising living standards in less developed countries would probably lead to a decrease in the number of infection-related cancers. But it was also likely there would also be an increase in types of the disease usually seen in richer countries.
They predicted that middle-income countries such as China, India and Africa could see an increase of 78 percent in the number of cancer cases by 2030.
Cases in less developed regions were expected to see a 93 percent rise over the same period, said the paper published in the journal Lancet Oncology.
Those rises would more than offset signs of a decline in cervical, stomach and other kinds of cancer in wealthier nations, said the researchers.
Christopher Wild, IARC's director said the study showed "the dynamic nature of cancer patterns" across the world over time.
"Countries must take account of the specific challenges they will face and prioritize targeted interventions," he said, emphasizing the need for prevention measures, early detection systems and effective treatment programs.
The study used data from GLOBOCAN, an IARC-compiled database of estimates of cancer incidence and death rates in 2008 in 184 countries worldwide.
The researchers found how patterns of the most common types of cancer varied according to four levels of human development, and then used these findings to project how the cancer burden is likely to change by 2030.
The seven most common types of cancer worldwide are lung cancer, female breast cancer, colorectal cancer, stomach cancer, prostate cancer, liver cancer and cervical cancer.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47645656/ns/health-cancer/
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Many developing countries were expected to see a rise in living standards in coming decades, said the paper from the World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in Lyon, France.
But those advances could come at a cost -- an increase in cases of cancers linked to poor diet, lack of exercise and other bad habits associated with affluence and linked to diseases like breast, prostate and colorectal cancers, it added.
"Cancer is already the leading cause of death in many high-income countries and is set to become a major cause of morbidity (sickness) and mortality in the next decades in every region of the world," said Freddie Bray from IARC's cancer information section.
The study was the first to look at how present and future rates of cancer might vary between richer and poorer countries, as measured by the development rankings defined in the United Nations' Human Development Index (HDI).
Researchers found poorly developed countries -- mostly those in sub-Saharan Africa -- had high numbers of cancers linked to infections -- particularly cervical cancer, but also liver cancer, stomach cancer and Kaposi's sarcoma.
By contrast, richer countries like Britain, Australia, Russia and Brazil had more cancers associated with smoking - such as lung cancer, and with obesity and diet.
.
The researchers said that rising living standards in less developed countries would probably lead to a decrease in the number of infection-related cancers. But it was also likely there would also be an increase in types of the disease usually seen in richer countries.
They predicted that middle-income countries such as China, India and Africa could see an increase of 78 percent in the number of cancer cases by 2030.
Cases in less developed regions were expected to see a 93 percent rise over the same period, said the paper published in the journal Lancet Oncology.
Those rises would more than offset signs of a decline in cervical, stomach and other kinds of cancer in wealthier nations, said the researchers.
Christopher Wild, IARC's director said the study showed "the dynamic nature of cancer patterns" across the world over time.
"Countries must take account of the specific challenges they will face and prioritize targeted interventions," he said, emphasizing the need for prevention measures, early detection systems and effective treatment programs.
The study used data from GLOBOCAN, an IARC-compiled database of estimates of cancer incidence and death rates in 2008 in 184 countries worldwide.
The researchers found how patterns of the most common types of cancer varied according to four levels of human development, and then used these findings to project how the cancer burden is likely to change by 2030.
The seven most common types of cancer worldwide are lung cancer, female breast cancer, colorectal cancer, stomach cancer, prostate cancer, liver cancer and cervical cancer.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47645656/ns/health-cancer/
I think due to the sheer amount of people on the planet coupled with things like technology, prepared food and the like, not to mention disastors like the radiation floating around , how can it do anything else? Seems like they want to prepare us so we dont have any questions as to the real uptick in cancers? yeah umhmmm.
I'd read this article, but felt that some of the assumptions made and some things not taken into account made their predictions pretty meaningless, especially for a time frame 18 years in the future.
1) They assume ready availability to a high calorie, high protein diet for a larger number of people than I can forsee even 8 years from now.
2) They assume a comparable level of exposure to carcinogens that we are exposed to now in the Western Hemisphere. This is already a false assumption and will continue to worsen as a higher level of industrialization and lower enforcement of environmental controls take their tolls in these countries.
3) The availability of uncontaminated potable water isn't even mentioned.
4) Declines in 'infection related cancers' assume cheap, easy access to the drugs responsible for these declines.
In short, obesity related cancers are probably the least of worries for people in these developing countries.
The one thing I can agree with is "Countries must take account of the specific challenges they will face and prioritize targeted interventions,"
1) They assume ready availability to a high calorie, high protein diet for a larger number of people than I can forsee even 8 years from now.
2) They assume a comparable level of exposure to carcinogens that we are exposed to now in the Western Hemisphere. This is already a false assumption and will continue to worsen as a higher level of industrialization and lower enforcement of environmental controls take their tolls in these countries.
3) The availability of uncontaminated potable water isn't even mentioned.
4) Declines in 'infection related cancers' assume cheap, easy access to the drugs responsible for these declines.
In short, obesity related cancers are probably the least of worries for people in these developing countries.
The one thing I can agree with is "Countries must take account of the specific challenges they will face and prioritize targeted interventions,"
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