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Debate drama heightened by town-hall format
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/15/14450540-first-thoughts-high-stakes?lite
*** High stakes: With new national polls (Washington Post/ABC, Politico) showing a very close contest between President Obama and Mitt Romney, as well as tightening battleground-state internals that we’ve heard about, the stakes for tomorrow night’s debate couldn’t be any higher, especially for the incumbent president. Not only is there a sense of urgency for Obama to be more aggressive at this second presidential debate, the town-hall format presents an opportunity and challenge for Romney: It will either prove the Obama argument that the GOP nominee is out of touch with middle-class concerns, or it can help knock it down. We know Romney has been practicing for this debate out in the open (holding town halls, interacting more with voters). The president actually hasn’t done a town hall in a LONG time, let alone interact with actual reporters (but we digress). There’s the joke that tomorrow’s debate is the most important one since the last one -- or until the next one. But kidding aside, there’s a strong argument this debate is the most pivotal with next week’s debate destined as a coda (since it’s a one-topic debate on foreign policy).
How will this week's town hall debate format benefit and work against both Mitt Romney and President Obama? What to make of the recent round of polls? NBC News' Chuck Todd joins Morning Joe to discuss.
*** In touch or out of touch? What Romney accomplished with the first debate was to get into the game -- make the playoffs, if you will. What this debate now provides him is an opportunity to blow up the stereotype that he doesn’t understand the plight of the average American. This is THE reason the president has a firewall of sorts in the Midwest, and it’s why this debate is so crucial for him. If he can’t amplify the message his campaign has been making for months about Romney at a debate that features real people, then how is a third debate going to help? And while polls (including our recent NBC/WSJ/Marist surveys of the most important battleground states) have shown only a small movement, we’ve now reached the stage of the race when the small movement matters.
*** What changed and what didn’t since the first debate: According to the new Washington Post/ABC poll (conducted Oct. 10-13), some things DID change since the first debate. Per the poll, 35% say they have a better opinion of Romney (vs. 14% who have a worse opinion and 48% who say their views are unchanged). That’s compared with 19% who have a worse opinion of Obama (vs. 9% who have a better opinion of him and 70% who are unchanged). Also, Romney voters say they are more enthusiastic about their candidate than they were last month. But here’s what DIDN’T change: Obama is up by Romney among three points among likely voters, 49%-46% (compared with 49%-47% before the debate), and seven points among registered voters, 50%-43% (vs. 49%-44% last month). What’s more, Obama’s approval rating is at or above 50%, where it was in September. The same dynamic is true of the new Politico/George Washington University poll -- Romney is viewed as more likeable, while the head-to-head matchup is essentially unchanged.
*** What if it's the demography, stupid: One of the more powerful undercurrents of this election has been the demographic advantage for the Democrats that every poll has found, with the degree of the advantage dependent on enthusiasm levels. The bottom line: Demography is an advantage for President Obama -- and a challenge for Mitt Romney. Our pollsters did an in-depth look at these fundamental shifts using all of the data we’ve collected over the last four month for the national NBC/WSJ poll. Our pollsters merged the numbers among likely voters from our two post-convention surveys from September, as well as our pre-convention June, July, and August polls and treated them as separate MEGA-surveys to compare with the 2008 exit poll. The results: Obama has seen erosion among men, whites (especially white independents), Midwest voters, and independents from what we saw in the 2008 exit poll. But that erosion has been offset somewhat by gains among Latinos (winning them 66%-32% in '08 vs. 67%-25% June-Aug. and 71%-22% in Sept.), Democrats (from 89%-10% in '08 to 92%-5% June-Aug. and 93%-5% in Sept.), and union households (from 59%-39% in '08 to 59%-36% in June-Aug. and 61%-34% in Sept.).
*** What to watch for on Election Night: But most remarkably, Obama has remained steady with African Americans (95%-4% in '08, 95%-3% June-Aug., and 93%-3% in Sept.) women (from 56%-43% in '08 to 52%-42% June-Aug. and 54%-42% in Sept.) white women (46%-53% in '08 vs. 42%-51% June-Aug. and 43%-54% in Sept.), and young voters 18-29 (from 66%-32% in '08 to 53%-42% June-Aug. and 60%-35% in Sept.). This is all a challenge for Romney: If he is hitting numbers among these demographic groups close to what John McCain got four years ago -- when he lost 53%-46% -- it will be very difficult to keep Obama below 50% on Election Night. So three weeks from now, when you're looking at the early exit polls, these demographic numbers will be important to follow: Is Obama winning Latinos by more than 66%? Is he up by double digits with women? Is he is in the 60% range with the youngest voters? And is he getting 40% of the white vote? If the answer is yes, you're looking at an Obama victory; if it's no, that's what a Romney win looks like.
*** How much of Romney’s gains have come from red states? So here is where Romney has made inroads since the ’08 exits, according to our merged data: with men, independents, and Midwest voters. And here is where Obama’s coalition is pretty much intact (or better): with African Americans, Latinos, and women. But here is something to chew on regarding Romney’s inroads: How much of it is coming from red states that won’t decide this election? In 2008, McCain won the red states, 55%-43%. Yet our merged numbers show Romney up there 56%-37% in June-Aug. and 58%-38% in September. That’s compared with relatively stable numbers in the Democratic states (which Obama won 60%-38% in 2008 and where he was 56%-38% in June-Aug. and 60%-36% in September) and in the swing states (50%-48% for Obama in ’08 vs. 49%-43% in June-Aug. and 48%-48% in September). Also, another area where Romney has jumped up from McCain’s ‘08 number -- white evangelicals. Again, most of those voters reside in the red states.
*** On the trail: Paul Ryan holds a town hall in Waukesha, WI at 9:30 am ET before hitting a rally in Cincinnati, OH at 12:30 pm ET… First Lady Michelle Obama campaigns in Ohio, while Ann Romney is in Pennsylvania.
Countdown to 2nd presidential debate: 1 day
Countdown to 3rd presidential debate: 7 days
Countdown to Election Day: 22 days
*** High stakes: With new national polls (Washington Post/ABC, Politico) showing a very close contest between President Obama and Mitt Romney, as well as tightening battleground-state internals that we’ve heard about, the stakes for tomorrow night’s debate couldn’t be any higher, especially for the incumbent president. Not only is there a sense of urgency for Obama to be more aggressive at this second presidential debate, the town-hall format presents an opportunity and challenge for Romney: It will either prove the Obama argument that the GOP nominee is out of touch with middle-class concerns, or it can help knock it down. We know Romney has been practicing for this debate out in the open (holding town halls, interacting more with voters). The president actually hasn’t done a town hall in a LONG time, let alone interact with actual reporters (but we digress). There’s the joke that tomorrow’s debate is the most important one since the last one -- or until the next one. But kidding aside, there’s a strong argument this debate is the most pivotal with next week’s debate destined as a coda (since it’s a one-topic debate on foreign policy).
How will this week's town hall debate format benefit and work against both Mitt Romney and President Obama? What to make of the recent round of polls? NBC News' Chuck Todd joins Morning Joe to discuss.
*** In touch or out of touch? What Romney accomplished with the first debate was to get into the game -- make the playoffs, if you will. What this debate now provides him is an opportunity to blow up the stereotype that he doesn’t understand the plight of the average American. This is THE reason the president has a firewall of sorts in the Midwest, and it’s why this debate is so crucial for him. If he can’t amplify the message his campaign has been making for months about Romney at a debate that features real people, then how is a third debate going to help? And while polls (including our recent NBC/WSJ/Marist surveys of the most important battleground states) have shown only a small movement, we’ve now reached the stage of the race when the small movement matters.
*** What changed and what didn’t since the first debate: According to the new Washington Post/ABC poll (conducted Oct. 10-13), some things DID change since the first debate. Per the poll, 35% say they have a better opinion of Romney (vs. 14% who have a worse opinion and 48% who say their views are unchanged). That’s compared with 19% who have a worse opinion of Obama (vs. 9% who have a better opinion of him and 70% who are unchanged). Also, Romney voters say they are more enthusiastic about their candidate than they were last month. But here’s what DIDN’T change: Obama is up by Romney among three points among likely voters, 49%-46% (compared with 49%-47% before the debate), and seven points among registered voters, 50%-43% (vs. 49%-44% last month). What’s more, Obama’s approval rating is at or above 50%, where it was in September. The same dynamic is true of the new Politico/George Washington University poll -- Romney is viewed as more likeable, while the head-to-head matchup is essentially unchanged.
*** What if it's the demography, stupid: One of the more powerful undercurrents of this election has been the demographic advantage for the Democrats that every poll has found, with the degree of the advantage dependent on enthusiasm levels. The bottom line: Demography is an advantage for President Obama -- and a challenge for Mitt Romney. Our pollsters did an in-depth look at these fundamental shifts using all of the data we’ve collected over the last four month for the national NBC/WSJ poll. Our pollsters merged the numbers among likely voters from our two post-convention surveys from September, as well as our pre-convention June, July, and August polls and treated them as separate MEGA-surveys to compare with the 2008 exit poll. The results: Obama has seen erosion among men, whites (especially white independents), Midwest voters, and independents from what we saw in the 2008 exit poll. But that erosion has been offset somewhat by gains among Latinos (winning them 66%-32% in '08 vs. 67%-25% June-Aug. and 71%-22% in Sept.), Democrats (from 89%-10% in '08 to 92%-5% June-Aug. and 93%-5% in Sept.), and union households (from 59%-39% in '08 to 59%-36% in June-Aug. and 61%-34% in Sept.).
*** What to watch for on Election Night: But most remarkably, Obama has remained steady with African Americans (95%-4% in '08, 95%-3% June-Aug., and 93%-3% in Sept.) women (from 56%-43% in '08 to 52%-42% June-Aug. and 54%-42% in Sept.) white women (46%-53% in '08 vs. 42%-51% June-Aug. and 43%-54% in Sept.), and young voters 18-29 (from 66%-32% in '08 to 53%-42% June-Aug. and 60%-35% in Sept.). This is all a challenge for Romney: If he is hitting numbers among these demographic groups close to what John McCain got four years ago -- when he lost 53%-46% -- it will be very difficult to keep Obama below 50% on Election Night. So three weeks from now, when you're looking at the early exit polls, these demographic numbers will be important to follow: Is Obama winning Latinos by more than 66%? Is he up by double digits with women? Is he is in the 60% range with the youngest voters? And is he getting 40% of the white vote? If the answer is yes, you're looking at an Obama victory; if it's no, that's what a Romney win looks like.
*** How much of Romney’s gains have come from red states? So here is where Romney has made inroads since the ’08 exits, according to our merged data: with men, independents, and Midwest voters. And here is where Obama’s coalition is pretty much intact (or better): with African Americans, Latinos, and women. But here is something to chew on regarding Romney’s inroads: How much of it is coming from red states that won’t decide this election? In 2008, McCain won the red states, 55%-43%. Yet our merged numbers show Romney up there 56%-37% in June-Aug. and 58%-38% in September. That’s compared with relatively stable numbers in the Democratic states (which Obama won 60%-38% in 2008 and where he was 56%-38% in June-Aug. and 60%-36% in September) and in the swing states (50%-48% for Obama in ’08 vs. 49%-43% in June-Aug. and 48%-48% in September). Also, another area where Romney has jumped up from McCain’s ‘08 number -- white evangelicals. Again, most of those voters reside in the red states.
*** On the trail: Paul Ryan holds a town hall in Waukesha, WI at 9:30 am ET before hitting a rally in Cincinnati, OH at 12:30 pm ET… First Lady Michelle Obama campaigns in Ohio, while Ann Romney is in Pennsylvania.
Countdown to 2nd presidential debate: 1 day
Countdown to 3rd presidential debate: 7 days
Countdown to Election Day: 22 days
"She has said, she will ask followup questions as well for clarification purposes!"
Good for her! She needs to...Oh well for both campaigns...We the people want to hear the truth.....
Good for her! She needs to...Oh well for both campaigns...We the people want to hear the truth.....
I heard there is some controversy from both campaign camps. It seems their will be 20 questions, all picked by Candy Crowley out of the 80 submitted by the viewers. But here is the clencher...... She has said, she will ask followup questions as well for clarification purposes!
Tis gonna be good!
Tis gonna be good!
"Drama heightened".... No its not. It's the same old thing. We'll be fed some of the same old thing.
"Romney HAS TO give specifics", and so does the President. BOTH have to be assertive. Both need to be assertive and give facts... facts... Factual information is key. Any lie or "misinformation" is just that and none of it should be tolerated.
What needs to happen is, the "moderator" needs to be equipped with the "facts" and have others there that will point out any discrepancies right off the bat. Then and only then will there be any accountability with what these people say.
When someone says, "your guy lies more" is just like saying, "my guys lies are acceptable.". That is plain Jane sorry. No lie, no misinformation is acceptable regardless of whose yapper it flies out of. A lie is a lie and none of them are okay. We need to make them realize that.
No interruptions... each has time to speak, and no complaining when you think you are not being given time to speak. Answer the damned questions... no up front excuses, just answers!
"Romney HAS TO give specifics", and so does the President. BOTH have to be assertive. Both need to be assertive and give facts... facts... Factual information is key. Any lie or "misinformation" is just that and none of it should be tolerated.
What needs to happen is, the "moderator" needs to be equipped with the "facts" and have others there that will point out any discrepancies right off the bat. Then and only then will there be any accountability with what these people say.
When someone says, "your guy lies more" is just like saying, "my guys lies are acceptable.". That is plain Jane sorry. No lie, no misinformation is acceptable regardless of whose yapper it flies out of. A lie is a lie and none of them are okay. We need to make them realize that.
No interruptions... each has time to speak, and no complaining when you think you are not being given time to speak. Answer the damned questions... no up front excuses, just answers!
IMO they BOTH need to be asked tough questions and they BOTH need to be ready..Romney HAS TO give specifics, I'm sick of him getting away with not giving details of his plan. Obama needs to assert his position. Let the American people know his policies that have helped the economy, created jobs, and helped the American people and let the American people know that there is a jobs bill sitting in congress that will create 1 million jobs but is just stale because the house will not let it pass.....I am so ready for tomorrow night! Hopefully it will not disappoint.
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