http://www.nbcnews.com/science/typhoon-haiyan-pushed-limit-bigger-storms-are-coming-2D11577486
"Experts say Typhoon Haiyan was about as strong as it could theoretically get when it swept through the Philippines, killing thousands of people and driving hundreds of thousands from their homes. But intensity limits have been rising over decades past — and climate models suggest they will keep rising over the decades to come, with the potential for bigger and more devastating storms.
"The tragedy of this particular storm is that it reached its limit just about the time it made landfall," Kerry Emanuel, a climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told NBC News.
Based on satellite imagery, the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated that Haiyan's winds reached a sustained peak as high as 195 mph shortly before it made landfall, with gusts rising to 235 mph. Estimates from Philippine weather officials were lower, suggesting that the storm packed sustained winds of 147 mph and gusts of 170 mph when it hit land. Either way, the typhoon ranks among the world's strongest tropical storms and appears to have been more powerful than Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
If the higher estimates are correct, the warning center said Haiyan's maximum strength would exceed that of its previous record-holder: Hurricane Camille, which hit the northern Gulf Coast in 1969 with sustained winds of 190 mph.
"This is at the top end of any tropical system that we've seen on our planet," said Bryan Norcross, The Weather Channel's hurricane specialist.
The definition of that top end has been shifting, Emanuel said. He was part of a team of researchers who predicted climate change could make tropical storms more intense, particularly in the Pacific.
"That part of the ocean, the Western Pacific, in November is pretty juicy," he said. "It has a high thermodynamic limit. That limit has been going up in time, perhaps in response to global warming. It's a little hard to say that for sure."
Although the maximum intensity of tropical storms is projected to rise, the climate models suggest a scenario that's more complex than merely turning up the dials. "It doesn't mean there'll be more storms," Emanuel said. "In fact, the weaker storms might be less frequent, but it's not the weaker storms that do the damage. In the end, we're much more concerned about what happens at the high end. It's those guys that do all the terrible destruction."
Satellite imagery from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission shows Typhoon Haiyan's structure as the storm made its way across the Philippines on Nov. 8.
Experts say Typhoon Haiyan was about as strong as it could theoretically get when it swept through the Philippines, killing thousands of people and driving hundreds of thousands from their homes. But intensity limits have been rising over decades past — and climate models suggest they will keep rising over the decades to come, with the potential for bigger and more devastating storms.
"The tragedy of this particular storm is that it reached its limit just about the time it made landfall," Kerry Emanuel, a climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told NBC News.
Based on satellite imagery, the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated that Haiyan's winds reached a sustained peak as high as 195 mph shortly before it made landfall, with gusts rising to 235 mph. Estimates from Philippine weather officials were lower, suggesting that the storm packed sustained winds of 147 mph and gusts of 170 mph when it hit land. Either way, the typhoon ranks among the world's strongest tropical storms and appears to have been more powerful than Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
If the higher estimates are correct, the warning center said Haiyan's maximum strength would exceed that of its previous record-holder: Hurricane Camille, which hit the northern Gulf Coast in 1969 with sustained winds of 190 mph.
"This is at the top end of any tropical system that we've seen on our planet," said Bryan Norcross, The Weather Channel's hurricane specialist.
The definition of that top end has been shifting, Emanuel said. He was part of a team of researchers who predicted climate change could make tropical storms more intense, particularly in the Pacific.
"That part of the ocean, the Western Pacific, in November is pretty juicy," he said. "It has a high thermodynamic limit. That limit has been going up in time, perhaps in response to global warming. It's a little hard to say that for sure."
Although the maximum intensity of tropical storms is projected to rise, the climate models suggest a scenario that's more complex than merely turning up the dials. "It doesn't mean there'll be more storms," Emanuel said. "In fact, the weaker storms might be less frequent, but it's not the weaker storms that do the damage. In the end, we're much more concerned about what happens at the high end. It's those guys that do all the terrible destruction."
Typhoon Haiyan batters Philippines
Image: Survivors of Typhoon Haiyan at the coastal village of Capiz in the central Philippines carry sacks containing relief goods
Tara Yap
One of the most powerful storms ever recorded killed hundreds of people in the central Philippines, with huge waves sweeping away entire coastal villages and devastating the region's main city.
The tale of Typhoon Haiyan's destructive power has turned the world's attention from the Atlantic hurricane season, which has been much weaker than average, to the less understood Pacific front. Here are answers to a few of the most frequently asked questions:
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