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La Nina developing, could mean more hurricanes
La Nina developing, could mean more hurricanes
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP
21 hours ago
WASHINGTON — The climate phenomenon known as La Nina appears to be developing, threatening more bad news in the efforts to clean up the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
When a La Nina occurs there tend to be more hurricanes than normal in the Atlantic and Caribbean regions, which include the Gulf of Mexico.
The federal Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that La Nina conditions are likely to develop in July and August.
La Nina is marked by an unusual cooling of the sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Water temperatures in that area can affect air pressure and winds, resulting in changes in the weather in many parts of the world.
In a La Nina, wind shear is increased over the Pacific and reduced over the Atlantic. Wind shear is the difference in strength of winds at low levels compared to higher level winds.
A strong wind shear reduces hurricanes by breaking up their ability to rise into the air, while less shear means they can climb and strengthen.
Thus, the Climate Prediction Center notes, "there tend to be more Atlantic hurricanes during La Nina because of this expanded area of low vertical wind shear."
In addition, during a La Nina "more hurricanes form in the deep tropics from African easterly waves. These systems have a much greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually threatening the U.S. and Caribbean islands," according to the center, a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The climate center's current hurricane forecast for this season is for 14 to 23 named storms of which 8 to 14 are expected to be hurricanes and 3 to 7 major hurricanes.
The center noted that during June, sea surface temperature continued to decrease across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with cool areas expanding across the central and eastern Pacific. In addition, increased rainfall persisted over Indonesia, while the area of reduced rain expanded westward over the western and central equatorial Pacific.
Combined with changes in the winds over the Pacific "these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect developing La Nina conditions" which are likely to continue through early 2011, CPC said.
The last La Nina occurred from the fall of 2007 to the spring of 2008. The opposite mode, El Nino, with warm Pacific conditions, has been in place since the spring of 2009.
___
Online: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP
21 hours ago
WASHINGTON — The climate phenomenon known as La Nina appears to be developing, threatening more bad news in the efforts to clean up the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
When a La Nina occurs there tend to be more hurricanes than normal in the Atlantic and Caribbean regions, which include the Gulf of Mexico.
The federal Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that La Nina conditions are likely to develop in July and August.
La Nina is marked by an unusual cooling of the sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Water temperatures in that area can affect air pressure and winds, resulting in changes in the weather in many parts of the world.
In a La Nina, wind shear is increased over the Pacific and reduced over the Atlantic. Wind shear is the difference in strength of winds at low levels compared to higher level winds.
A strong wind shear reduces hurricanes by breaking up their ability to rise into the air, while less shear means they can climb and strengthen.
Thus, the Climate Prediction Center notes, "there tend to be more Atlantic hurricanes during La Nina because of this expanded area of low vertical wind shear."
In addition, during a La Nina "more hurricanes form in the deep tropics from African easterly waves. These systems have a much greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually threatening the U.S. and Caribbean islands," according to the center, a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The climate center's current hurricane forecast for this season is for 14 to 23 named storms of which 8 to 14 are expected to be hurricanes and 3 to 7 major hurricanes.
The center noted that during June, sea surface temperature continued to decrease across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with cool areas expanding across the central and eastern Pacific. In addition, increased rainfall persisted over Indonesia, while the area of reduced rain expanded westward over the western and central equatorial Pacific.
Combined with changes in the winds over the Pacific "these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect developing La Nina conditions" which are likely to continue through early 2011, CPC said.
The last La Nina occurred from the fall of 2007 to the spring of 2008. The opposite mode, El Nino, with warm Pacific conditions, has been in place since the spring of 2009.
___
Online: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
I take both into consideration. I fully believe that the earth goes through natural cycles every X amount of years and believe that that explains much of what is happening. I am not prepared to fully discount global warming though...I just can't imagine that all the pollution and garbage we are pumping out has no impact. However, that is besides the point. I hope that this year does not meet predictions and these hurricanes peter out long before reaching shore. It's always bad when there are a lot of them, but this year in particular....I will keep all of you who may be impacted by this in my thoughts and prayers. I hope all of you stay safe and unaffected any more then you already have been. The Gulf could definately use a quiet year.
Thanks for mentioning the mini ice age. It was one of the causes of the French Revolution. Crop failing and hunger. During our own Revolution there was a year with no summer. That caused a few problems.
Also, I don't know how much I trust the accuracy of weather statistics from hundred of years ago. I agree with you. This is a natural phenomenon.
Also, I don't know how much I trust the accuracy of weather statistics from hundred of years ago. I agree with you. This is a natural phenomenon.
I see what you're saying now...I have a friend who's a global warming conspiracy theorist and I get so tired of his rhetoric...the fact is, the globe IS warming, but it's a natural phase that the earth goes through every couple thousand years. Have these theorists ever heard of the "little ice age" in the 1800's? I'm guessing not. I just ignore it at this point. It's like the global warming nuts get excited about the possible end of the world being caused by human greed and excess.
I'm a bit nervous too, teko. we just moved into a house in the woods that I wouldn't trust in a winter squall much less a hurricane...which means fleeing to my parents' house if something comes this way with enough force. Not something I would do unless there was a serious death-threat breathing down my neck, lol.
I'm a bit nervous too, teko. we just moved into a house in the woods that I wouldn't trust in a winter squall much less a hurricane...which means fleeing to my parents' house if something comes this way with enough force. Not something I would do unless there was a serious death-threat breathing down my neck, lol.
Regardless of what we call it, things are set in place this year just like they were back in 03? When we had a hurricane every week in August. Literally one every weekend. I have my pennies saved to outrun them but it could really wreck havoc on the oil spill mess.
You are correct. I should have made myself clearer. In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, President Bush's environmental policies which critics claimed accelerated global warming was the cause of the hurricanes that season. Wrong. It was EL Nino.
See below the types of weather caused by El Nino and La Nina.
I do agree that the President's response to Hurricane Katrina was too little too late and that lands right on his lap.
I can simply see where the people who believed that President Bush actually caused the hurricanes, to strike again. The president of the USA is a very powerful man, but not that powerful. And Obama didn't cause the current Gulf disaster.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Hemisphere_Warm_Pool
http://www.el-nino.com/
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,168105,00.html
http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/viewSubCategory.asp?id=143
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr/for-they-that-sow-the-win_b_6396.html
See below the types of weather caused by El Nino and La Nina.
I do agree that the President's response to Hurricane Katrina was too little too late and that lands right on his lap.
I can simply see where the people who believed that President Bush actually caused the hurricanes, to strike again. The president of the USA is a very powerful man, but not that powerful. And Obama didn't cause the current Gulf disaster.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Hemisphere_Warm_Pool
http://www.el-nino.com/
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,168105,00.html
http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/viewSubCategory.asp?id=143
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr/for-they-that-sow-the-win_b_6396.html
...I'm sorry. I must have missed the "global warming" reference in the article. Enlighten me please? I think we're all aware that these are both old phenomena.
Honestly not sure who you were taking a stab at there...but was it really necessary to shove a political agenda up this particular post's behind? That took me a bit by surprise.
Honestly not sure who you were taking a stab at there...but was it really necessary to shove a political agenda up this particular post's behind? That took me a bit by surprise.
El nino and la nina are extremely old phenomena. For those who would like to blame this on "global warming", please do your homework. We in Texas feel both of these.
Amen, Amanda. A little anxious reading this article on our local news network this morning...We're far enough inland that by the time the storms get here, the damage is minimized...but any time part of FL gets hit, we all feel the pain, and I don't just mean in insurance hikes and gas prices shooting through the roof. So far most of our beaches have been spared (Thank GOD) but this could mean the end of that hope...La Nina, no offense...but stay away.
Good Lord I hope not. If ever there was a year the Gulf needed less hurricanes, this would be it.
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